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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    There's no suggestion in the BMF statement that they have less money for lobbying or other purposes; just that, post-Brexit, they now think their lobbying money is better spent elsewhere than in lobbying the EU.

    In one sense they have a point. Now that the UK has left the EU, people in the EU will care less about what the UK thinks or wants on any matter. Why spend money presenting your views in the EU when those views have less relevance, and less influence, than they used to?

    On the other hand, diverting the money to presenting your views in Westminster isn't necessarily going to achieve very much. As Hotblack points out, there is no point lobbying Westminster to make changes that, realistically, it is not sensible or rational for the UK, as a relatively small player, to make. If you want to lobby in relation to, say, emissions standards for motorbikes or standards for electrically-powered motorbikes (both things that FEMA is currently addressing) you have to lobby in the EU. Even if the UK were to adopt its own standards for these matters, few manufacturers would produce to them.

    The bottom line is that the views represented by the BMF are simply less influential than they used to be. This is an outcome of Brexit. Reducing expenditure on lobbying may be a rational response to that — when your views are unimportant, why spend money publicising them? But the pressure at work here is not so much financial pressure as, um, political pressure. The UK's political choices have marginalised the BMF in Europe.

    Post edited by Peregrinus on


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,617 ✭✭✭rock22


    Ironically, the same report a few weeks ago mention the BMF using its' FEMA contacts to help a British motorcyclist whose 60's British motorcycle was seized in Spain because it did not have a (modern) emission certificate. Apparently Spain threat EU and non EU vehicles differently.

    This though is just another example, like the lack of UK students taking foreign languages, the failure of a Germain court to extradite to UK, the failure of the UK academic pathway to attract high achieving academics which all show how the UK and EU will gradually move apart.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,617 ✭✭✭rock22


    A more positive announcement here , the UK is to re-join the Horizon program.

    I imagine this wll be welcomed by the whole scientific community



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,054 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Another step on the inevitable path to becoming rule takers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,444 ✭✭✭Gerry T


    At 2b a yr for 7yrs it's a bargain. Brexiteers heads will explode, but alot of uk press are leaving that detail out. Sky put it that the UK were being let back in after being kicked out. Making it sound like the EU decided they should leave.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,420 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    Express decided to go with 'EU backs down as UK can rejoin Horizon science programme', and 'Victory as UK secures bespoke deal to rejoin EU's Horizon progarmme' in it's two articles.

    But I suppose, let them spin it whatever way they want.



  • Registered Users Posts: 862 ✭✭✭timetogo1


    It's 2.6bn (according to the Guardian article). Or 50M a week.

    Was that part of the original £350m bandied about (or actually 280m after rebates). If it is, it's nearly 20% of what they used to pay.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,747 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Sky news have since edited their story to remove it but earlier it made the claim that the UK was "kicked out".



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,828 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Something odd in those UK media reports: they're all saying that the agreement is effective immediately, get your funding applications in now.

    But the EU press release https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_23_4373 says it only comes into effect on 1st Jan 2024, and the whole deal still has to be approved by each individual EU member state. I'm sure that'll be mostly an exercise in rubberstamping, but still plenty of time and opportunity for things to go wrong.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,727 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    My sentiments exactly. It really adds a sense of futility to the whole thing, doesn't it. All that empty cant about taking back control only to end up grovelling for extensions and opting in to bits of the EU.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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  • Registered Users Posts: 876 ✭✭✭reslfj


    Something odd in those UK media reports: they're all saying that the agreement is effective immediately, get your funding applications in now.

    3 1/2 months is a very short time to put an application agreed and getting it in.

    Horizon is a multinational program. This will not make the application process any faster

    Lars 😀



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,202 ✭✭✭yagan


    The Northern Ireland legacy bill is enough for our government to veto their readmission.



  • Registered Users Posts: 186 ✭✭Itineoman


    Anyone who has tried this knows it’s impossible in that timeframe.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,747 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    The FT have an article which is reminding (or more likely telling businesses for the first time) that as of January 2025, any non-EU (i.e. including Britain) business trading with customers (even electronically) in the EU must pay VAT where the customer resides. There are a number of other rules due to kick in that the UK has not been preparing businesses for. These include Carbon Emission Reports for carbon compliance. Whilst this is not related to Brexit, will the UK government prepare it's exporting businesses for the pending changes or will struggling UK businesses simply not be able to trade with EU customers? Unlike the Brexit deadlines, this one won't be pushed back.




  • Registered Users Posts: 13,420 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    Minor stuff in the greater scheme of things. But another sign that leisure/sporting pursuits (cycling, pigeon-racing, music gigs, motor-bikes) are somewhat surprising victims of 'taking back control'.

    Tour of Britain race director blames Brexit and funding crisis amid criticism | Tour of Britain | The Guardian

    “Just to give you an example,” he added, “it took some teams that rode the world champs [in Glasgow] five hours to get their vehicles, technical teams through customs at Dover, and that was only three weeks ago. And they go, ‘Hang on. You know what? It’s not worth it’. So they didn’t, but that’s purely and simply down to Brexit.”



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,636 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    More drip-drip Brexit as UK is finally getting round to applying the rules on imports. On a phased basis. From the end of January. Was supposed to be next month but this is the fifth delay. Another round of price increases and shortages for British consumers for some things.

    More paperwork for our exporters.

    The UK government has previously cited the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine as reasons for delaying the new checks.

    Now, it fears that the extra bureaucracy for imported goods will fuel inflation which stood at nearly 7% in July.




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,617 ✭✭✭rock22


    The problem is not just fuelling inflation with these checks. In the worst case scenario, EU suppliers will simply not supply the UK, as additional bureaucracy and costs associated with thee checks will be seen by too burdensome.

    And the UK is only about 65% self sufficient, meaning , if they didn't import food from the EU ( and other countries) they would face a real food shortage (unrealistic i know, but someone posted that, without imports, they would exhaust this years food supply around now ) . Not something any government could countenance.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,727 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Shocking to see Frost just brazenly admit this. We all knew it of course but it's here in black and white:

    All that crap over the protocol was just Tories being Tories.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,657 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Ironically, he's actually giving a very truthful version of what happened back then (unusually for a Brexiteer, as they are normally pathological liars trying to deceive everyone).



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,727 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    It's become more of a trend recently, I've noticed. Remember when Jacob Rees-Mogg admitted that the voter ID laws were intended to disaffect non-Tory voters?

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,435 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    The EU (Barnier & co) negotiated, in good faith, with Frosty & co. They, in reality knew what they were dealing with, but kept the high ground. Ireland will be forever grateful to Barnier.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,657 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    It's like they were negotiating an international agreement with UKIP and the Daily Telegraph. Yes, things were that bad.

    And of course they knew they were sitting across from a bunch of spoofers and shysters. The EU probably knew full well the other crowd intended to attempt to renege on the deal before the ink was even dry.



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,435 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Can't remember the name of Barnier's second, a German lady I think, she was brilliant.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,727 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Sabine Weyand and yes. I watched an interview with her once and she came across very well.


    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users Posts: 21,435 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Thanks for that. Heard her once and she was really able. The EU hire the brightest.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,727 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Good for them. Not so much for me. I'm deliberating whether or not to apply for a not too exciting job in France. It could help me learn French (One needs two of English, French and German to work for the EU) but it'd be a high price to pay.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,747 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    The EU were briefed thoroughly by the Irish government (Dept of Foreign Affairs I think) to the point that they were given a comprehensive history lesson in Anglo Irish relations, etc. once word of a referendum was on the horizon back in 2015/2016. I don't think the EU team were surprised at the approach taken by the UK (although they may have been surprised at how incompetent the UK were towards their own countries interests e.g. pushing for Art 50).

    We've a lot to be thankful to Barnier and the team but also to the other 26 members of the club. However (and not trying to make this a political post) but massive kudos to the Irish government of the day and its DFA civil service team.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,202 ✭✭✭yagan


    Keir Starmer wants to renegotiate the brexit deal. Rules out base level customs union, so hard to see what a re-engagement will achieve, what can he offer the EU?



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,747 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    I think it is more that the current deal is up for review in 2025 and Starmer is hoping to be PM then and will look to secure a better agreement for GB than the one negotiated by Frost and Johnson. Assuming he is PM then, this is what you'd expect him to achieve anyhow.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    There's a prior question he needs to ask himself; what does the EU want? There's no point in offering the EU something it doesn't want. A UK government wishing to renegotiate the TCA has to identify something that they reckon the EU wants but doesn't currently have, and make an offer of that to the EU, indicating that the UK will give this, if it gets something it wants in return.

    And here there's a problem. The opening position is that the EU has the TCA, which they agreed to following a negotiation in which they both had the stronger strategic position and were much the more able and competent negotiating party. So you have to assume that the TCA gives them everything they consider essential, plus a good deal of what they consider desirable. If that's so, there's no particular reason why they would want to renegotiate the TCA. And, of course, they can't be compelled to.

    To persuade the EU to give up the TCA, which the EU quite likes, the UK needs to make a dramatic offer to the EU of what they can have instead. What the UK was willing or able to offer in the negotiations leading up to the EU was constrained by the UK's own red lines. So if Starmer wants to negotiate a replacement to the TCA, he has to — very publicly, I think — repudiate one or more of the red lines the UK set for itself from 2016 to 2020, and offer something that the EU would have sought at that time, but for the red lines.

    Why publicly? Because if he mutters his offer with his hand over his mouth and looking furtively around lest he be overheard, the EU will lack confidence in his ability to deliver. In the end, they're not negotiating with Starmer; they're negotiating with the UK. They won't be interested in an approach by Starmer based on a position for which he has yet to build domestic support or acceptance.

    Yagan mentions Starmer having already ruled out a customs union. Could Starmer change his mind on that and, e.g., invite the EU to agree to admit the UK to the European Customs Union? Whether he can make that offer depends on his domestic political situation; whether it will attract the EU depends on whether the EU wants the UK in the European Customs Union. To be honest, we probably do in the long run, but I think we're in no rush. We'd need to see that sentiment in the UK really has changed, and that the UK will be a desirable and dependable participant. My guess is that the EU would much prefer to see the UK realign with the EU incrementally, over time, so that its the sincerity of its change of heart can be established before the EU has to place too much faith in it.



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