Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Selling into the UK isn't a problem yet, by and large, because the UK hasn't got around to enforcing any border controls. They keep putting back the date at which they will start to do this, because (as they now freely admit) when they do it will fuel inflation in the UK.

Which is not to say that they won't do it some day. But, as of now, it's not a barrier to exporting to the UK.

It's true that it would suit Ireland if the UK were to align more closely. But I think that, while the EU was very supportive of Ireland when Brexit was something they had to deal with, it's not now something they have to deal with and they are not going to reopen it for Ireland. Our priority was to avoid a hard border with NI, and that was delivered.

There are things that Starmer could do, and that the EU would be open to, that would benefit Ireland — e.g. an SPS agreement. But Irish businesses who get their supplies from the UK and who find their supplies have been disrupted by Brexit should be looking for new suppliers within the EU. To be honest, that's going to be a lot easier and quicker than waiting for the UK to decide it wants to join the SM/the Customs Union and then waiting for the EU to agree to this.

I don't know what Starmer's plan is. But it occurs to me that, in the UK system, once you have a majority in the Commons you are really not accountable. Brexit was implemented by people who, having won the Brexit referendum, felt entitled to implement Brexit in any way they pleased without regard to public opinion and certainly without any need to secure an electoral mandate for any particular form of Brexit. It was a rocky road because they had no majority in the Commons for any particular form of Brexit. But if Starmer can get a large majority, which at the moment looks very possible, and if he can maintain party discipline, he can do virtually anything with respect to Brexit short of rejoining, banking on the fact that by the time of the next election in 2029, few in an electorate already heartily sick of Brexit arguments will be swayed by claims that he has betrayed the spirit of the 2016 referendum by making an SPS agreement, or joining EFTA, or whatever. It's already the case that a large majority think Brexit was a mistake. While there is no appetite for a Rejoin referendum, there will certainly be no widespread appetite to punish Starmer for anything he does to alleviate the consequences of that mistake.

The "Brexit was a mistake" figures are very misleading.

Many in that bracket do not believe voting for Brexit was a mistake but just believe the Brexit delivered was a mistake.

Not really. The UK net contribution was below €10bn/yr - in many years well below that.

It's not much on a €170 million/yr budget EU27 with additional costs for corona recovery and the war in Ukraine.

The EU net contributions are not really significant i n themselves - peanuts money in the larger picture.

It's the benefits from being in the EU that really matters. These are the farming and development subsidies for some countries. But for must EU members it's the SM+CU and trade, the open internal borders and travel, the Europol and crime prevention, and the soft security the EU provides. It's the shared cost and benefits like air safety and open sky, environment and climate ....

Lars 😀

I really have a problem with many Irish businesses who have problems post Brexit. We are living in one of the biggest and mature market places in the world. Any business who goes outside that market, unnecessarily, really shouldn't be in business.

Personally, I am tired of being told a delay etc is due to Brexit. Two recent purchases resulted in my having to contact UK service agents when the items malfunctioned. It would suit me, and I am sure most consumers, better , if businesses were told they had to provide services etc. from the EU.

Some companies who use specialised parts and equipment would have to make significant changes with upfront costs they can't afford. Replacing a long standing trusted supplier isn't easy too especially when the new supplier may not speak your language.

Also and I'm not saying it's crippling any businesses but certain food and drink items can only come from the UK.

This is all true. But we are where we are; the UK has left the SM and the CU, and is well away from deciding that it would like to rejoin either of them. And, if and when it changes its mind about that, the political reality is that it will take some more time for the change of mind to be turned into an actual rejoining. By "some more time" I mean "a period of years".

Any form of Brexit was always going to be harmful to Ireland. Through intelligence, nifty footwork and the support and solidarity of allies we have avoided the graver forms of harm, the ones that really were close to being an existential threat. We're left with the lesser harm that we couldn't avoid; the hampering of trade with GB. Realigning supply chains to omit GB may not be easy and may not be cheap, but it's probably a better option than waiting for the rejoin fairy to arrive and sprinkle her pixie-dust around.

As to whether a 57:32 discloses a "vast majority" we can at least agree on this: "Brexit was a mistake" has a majority of 25% over "no it wasn't", which is a significantly larger majority than the opinion polls currently give Labour over the Tories (19%).

There's nothing wrong with hoping for an EU/UK trade deal which suits you better than the current one, provided you recognise that it's a best a medium-term hope. It will be years before an improved trade deal comes onstream, and the more you need it improved over the current deal, the more years are likely to pass before that actually happens.

If your business is such that things would be greatly improved by a comprehensive SPS agreement with the UK, well, if the dominos all fall in just the right way and the trade gods smile on you, you might get that as soon as late 2025. But if your problems are not going to be solved unless the UK actually or de facto joins the Customs Union, you will be very lucky indeed to get that this side of 2030.

Different businesses, obviously, are differently situated, and so will be a different position as regards both how likely it is that the particular amelioration they require will ever happen (there's no harm in having a very slender hope provided you recognise that it is very slender) and how soon it might happen. They'll also be differently situated as regards how expensive/troublesome it would be to find new supply chains that bypass the UK. Finally, their owners will have different attitudes about how much risk they are prepared to tolerate.

So there's no one-size-fits-all right approach here. Some business will have acute problems that must be solved soon if the business is to remain solvent; they can't wait for a new EU/UK trade deal. (Some of them, indeed, have already folded.) Others may reckon they can survive for a few years on thinner margins and see if things improve before they make the commitment of building new supply chains. Still others may be in the happy situation that, for them, finding new supply chains is relatively easy; most of those will already have done that. And so on.

I think what it comes down to is that each business affected must think clearly and dispassionately about:

(a) what has to change in the UK/EU trade relationship to keep their business viable and profitable;

(b) how likely it is that that change will happen;

(c) how long it will be before that change is likely to happen; and

(d) if events don't unfold as thought likely, how long will the business remain viable?

@breezy1985 wrote "@rock22 thinks companies that go outside the CM should go bust which is fekin ludicrous stuff altogether."

Where breezy, exactly, did I suggest such a thing?

@Unflushable Turd "It isn't that simple though"

I agree. i import items from the UK myself. But only where there is no other supplier. It is surprising how much of the items imported through the UK are available from other suppliers within the EU. But, in many cases, importers here just don't want to investigate newer supplier in the EU rather than change long established supply chains.

Is there any good reason why PC's here need to have a UK keyboard? For instance, do we need a £ symbol where a € symbol would be more useful? A lot of what we see as 'standard' is little more than custom. And yes I know about building and electrical regulations etc.

@breezy1985 So you can't back up your assertions with any link to me saying '..companies that go outside the CM should go bust..' Glad we cleared that up.

You really need to start reading the posts you are responding to. I made no reference to changing the QWERTY 'standard' ( for what it is worth, I simply asked if we could live without a £ symbol when a € might be more useful

But without going further off-topic, I was responding to you position , quote, "... but Brexit has been a big problem for many Irish business who's re supplied from the UK so closer alignment and easier trade would be something this EU member wants.". And my point is that those businesses should try to navigate around UK suppliers wherever that is possible. It would benefit them and likely their customers.

It would be hard to argue, at an EU level , that the trade agreement with the UK should be eased to allow business to continue to trade with a third country rather than to try to trade within the single market. Is it not the raison d'être of the single market in the first place?

How about an academic paper then? https://repository.kulib.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dspace/handle/2433/139379. Which was cited in the article, btw.

And yes, Remington did effectively popularise qwerty, there's plenty of evidence for that. There is no evidence that qwerty was designed to slow typists down