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RWC 2023 Ireland v South Africa Buildup - Sat 23rd Sep 20:00 Paris

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,154 ✭✭✭✭Neil3030


    We'll stick with a 5-3 whether it's Byrne or Crowley on the bench.

    Thornley completely speculated whether Crowley on the bench MIGHT free Ireland up to go 6-2.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,466 ✭✭✭✭phog


    I'm not sure I've seen him do a stint that long in front of the media before but he's a natural and you see snippets of that in the Access Munster clips throughout the year.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,571 ✭✭✭ersatz


    Very risky to force a situation where JS has to play 80.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,154 ✭✭✭✭Neil3030


    That's exactly it. Doesn't matter how versatile the backup 10 is if, in all probability, he'll be replacing the 10.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,638 ✭✭✭Dubinusa


    If we win there's going to be a very upset 😡 bokke lashing out on the forum.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,605 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    We've beaten France soundly with a 5-3 bench, and they were comfortably a better team than this SA.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,258 ✭✭✭✭Buer


    Yup. Willemse has plenty of experience at 12. Kolbe has played 15 a good few times at club level (and started there against Ireland last year). He's also played outhalf a couple of times back in the day for Toulouse.

    Reinach doesn't have much experience on the wing but I'd have limited concern with him slotting in there. They could even just go for Kwagga Smith on the wing who isn't quite Macalou but he is very comfortable in that area of the pitch having played for SA 7s for years.

    SA have a significant amount of flexibility in their back line which allows them consider these things but regardless, an injury to Libbok or DDA would be very disruptive to their game.

    I hope we take them to a dark place in terms of fitness and look to keep the ball moving an in play as much as possible in the second half similar to how we took on France. Someone like Fickou is world class but was absolutely gasping for air in those closing stages.

    I can see us getting very frustrated with the game on Saturday though. I fully expect SA to slow things right down and look to kill the clock as much as possible. The ball in play in the second half of the second test against the Lions was 14 minutes which is incredibly low.

    I'm surprised that WR have given this game to Ben O'Keeffe given the controversy around the officiating in the first two Lions tests. No matter, if we win it will be because we inflicted our game plan on them and vice versa if they do so.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,258 ✭✭✭✭Buer


    I'm not nearly as worried about their front five subs as I would have been if Marx and Koch were there. That would have given them Mbonambi and Koch coming into the game with 30 minutes left and a much steadier, more experienced platform.

    Nche is a good player but not at that level as a scrummager. Nyakane is past his best. Leinster handled him without issue for Racing. Fourie is a great player in the loose and will give them an injection of energy but he's small for a hooker and isn't going to be giving them much ballast in the scrum. I suspect they're happy to go 7/1 and have two locks coming on to mitigate against the diminished power up front.

    It's a far cry from 2019 final when they had a front five bench of Marx, Kitshoff, Koch, Snyman and Mostert.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,241 ✭✭✭Sanjuro


    Has this team ever played 6-2? If not, now is not the time to start experimenting.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,869 ✭✭✭Jacovs


    Has anyone even mentioned Duane Vermeulen not being in the 23 match day squad?

    Far as I know he is fit to play. Suppose the 7-1 split didnt have space for him, if Kwagga is needed in the back line and the 8th man has to play a full 80 minutes then idk if Duane would be able at this stage.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,765 ✭✭✭Shehal


    What I suspect is the case is I think Etzebeth is not fully ready. The way the Springboks have talked about his injury situation is they have made it believable he's fit to play but have also painted the situation in a way that if he ends up being ruled out it wont come as a surprise or come across as cynical to the average viewer. I suspect Rassie and Nianbar are going to look at Pollard in training to see how he is fitness wise in order to see if he's ready to feature in a game of this magnitude, if he is they'll go for him and if not I think they'll go for Le Roux on the bench with Kleyn coming in for Etzebeth in the SR.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,627 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Is there a chance Beirne starts at 6 with POM on the bench

    We're gonna need something in reserve for the 2nd half

    Having Beirne starting at 6 in a 3 lock pack gives us size without sacrificing much mobility and POM coming on at 50 mins adds leadership and improves our breakdown and lineout for the final third

    Ireland don't have to change our game style, but we are vulnerable if the SA pack win the collisions and take away our ability to win quick ball at the ruck. Usually we can neutralise that over the 80 mins by being more mobile and fitter, but with the bomb squad, SA can finish even stronger than their starting 15 putting huge pressure on us to build a lead early or be forced to defend a lead against a fresher and bigger pack in the final 20 minutes



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,258 ✭✭✭✭Buer


    I wouldn't be shocked if we played Beirne at 6 but with POM moving across and VDF on the bench. Which isn't a criticism of VDF but I don't think we can go into this game without POM as a jumping option.

    I'd also prefer VDF injecting pace and massive linespeed from the bench in the final 25 minutes as well as an open field carrying threat if the game does present an open field opportunity.

    If Conan doesn't make it, I'd be happy to go with a bench of Kelleher/Sheehan, Kilcoyne, Bealham, McCarthy, VDF, Murray, Crowley, Henshaw.

    I can see the attraction of having Conan in there instead of Henshaw for a 6/2 but I think it's such a big risk to do that with our lack of flexibility compared to SA. We also have a couple of backs who are relatively injury prone; Lowe, JGP, Sexton and Ringrose all spent chunks of the season out injured. I'd hate to see the reshuffle required if Ringrose went down. Sexton would see more traffic down his channel than ever seen before and be asked to play the 80 (which he might well do anyway).



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,313 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    The Water breaks work against us a little bit right now in terms stretching their fitness

    Without them fitness becomes critical , now however teams get a breather after ~20 minutes in each half.

    I totally get the logic for day-time KO's in direct sun when it's 30+ degrees , but a 9pm KO in Paris this weekend it's only going to be 14/15 degrees - No need for Water breaks.



  • Subscribers Posts: 41,915 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Have water breaks been confirmed for ROUND 3?

    they seem to be announced round by round



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,869 ✭✭✭Jacovs


    Games seem to take quite long these days, the water break adding to that. Could be an hour before first half ends, 2 hours for the full game.

    Not a big difference from before, but noticeable.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,313 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    I don't actually know - I had thought that it was a blanket agreement for the whole competition.

    If it's variable based on the weather conditions then that's good.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,087 ✭✭✭✭2smiggy


    when is the irish team announcement ?



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 12,248 Mod ✭✭✭✭Cookiemunster


    It's variable. It was announced before R1 and again before R2.

    The forecast for France shows much lower temps this week with temps in the South of France only reaching the mid 20s and max temp in Paris on Saturday only hitting 20. I'd be surprised if we see any more water breaks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,466 ✭✭✭✭phog


    Is there a chance Beirne starts at 6 with POM on the bench

    There's no chance that POM isn't in the starting 15, he's too important to our lineout.



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,313 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Agreed - I really don't think we are going to see any major surprises or changes in the Irish team.

    We should not be changing our plans to react to SA - We need to play our game , it should be enough if delivered to our best ability.

    We'll have a 5-3 split on the bench and they only considerations will be around a few of the bench.

    Do Conan and Sheehan make the bench?

    Crowley vs. Byrne?

    Baird vs McCarthy ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭lbj666


    Ya I'm just hypothesising, 5/3 we have to.. there isn't a choice in the matter.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,978 ✭✭✭standardg60


    There was no water break in the Australia Fiji game. Remember one of the players asking Andrew brace and he said 'no unfortunately '



  • Moderators, Arts Moderators Posts: 35,529 Mod ✭✭✭✭pickarooney


    I think the team is as it will be on Saturday, the bench won't make a huge difference, there will be no major injuries and it will come down to who plays smartest on the day.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,415 ✭✭✭jammiedodgers


    This week is dragging so much. Really can't wait for this game!



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,980 ✭✭✭Lucy8080


    Well, they've named their team early and we have the advantage of seeing how they set up to nullify Russel/Scotland attack. Every little helps.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,869 ✭✭✭Jacovs


    You are going to need it.


    (just a bit of friendly banter)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,877 ✭✭✭ionadnapokot


    Agree. No chance of 6-2 and no need. Even if SA had 8 forwards on the bench.

    That's why I think Baird is nailed on for 20. jersey. No need for Conan or Sheehan at their stage of match sharpness

    I think the only Qs for Farrell/POC is Henderson v McCarthy for 19.

    I'm guessing Crowley will bench as 10/15 cover.


    I think this game is personal to this squad. It has the feeling of that Ireland v Argentina game in 2003. But bigger!




  • Registered Users Posts: 24,767 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    Have SA gone with they 7-1 split to directly counter our quick ruck speed and our fitness? Have players a mash rucks with abandon for 45 mins to be replaced with someone who can smash rucks with abandon for 35, and do that across the pack. If so it’s a testament to where we are that they feel the need to do something so radical to try and bottle us up.

    If we can get into our rhythm early and get a score or two then it will be interesting to see how that impacts the game. Is this a SA side capable of chasing a game if they need to? Sure the starting XV are excellent, but that bench isn’t one that I would think could add the impact needed to turn things if they are behind.

    In a way I’d really would love to see us stick to our guns with a 5-3 bench and just select our best XV. Send them a message that they can worry about our game, we won’t worry about theirs. But there’s real merit in Hendo to start, Beirne to 6, POM to 7 with McCarthy and VDF on the bench. We’ve seen VDF bring a lot of pace off the bench already in the last few weeks so they may already have been planning for something like that.



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  • Moderators, Arts Moderators Posts: 35,529 Mod ✭✭✭✭pickarooney


    Surely it'll be a scrum-half at 21 if we go with a 5-3?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,869 ✭✭✭Jacovs


    I think the SA management is looking at it this way, more or less sure of a quarter final already. Win or lose, it will be France or NZ in the next round, so both are going to be tough games. This is their last chance to experiment with the 7-1 split, cant still be experimenting in the next phase of the tournament.

    Looking ahead, Ireland has the advantage of only playing their last game against Scotland 6 days after SA's last game. If they win this match and SA win against Tonga, then theres nothing left to play for against Scotland (except pride, of course). Lose this match and SA win against Tonga then they will still already know who they play in the quarters if they win/lose the Scotland game.

    This isnt a make or break game for either team. (I may regret this statement in a week or 2).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,877 ✭✭✭ionadnapokot


    Ah. Yes. Didnt have my Maths head on this morn.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,280 ✭✭✭techdiver


    A massive perk if Ireland actually win this weekend will hopefully be the death of this dumb phrase "The Bomb Squad". It's a juvenile, NFL (I do actually like NFL though) style load of crap and is getting tedious hearing every bloody pundit use it time and time again.

    Also, if we are to be accurate, a bomb squads actual job is to defuse a device, not add to it's explosive power, so it doesn't even make any fuckin sense in the first place.

    /rant



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 980 ✭✭✭Dick Turnip


    "Also, if we are to be accurate, a bomb squads actual job is to defuse a device, not add to it's explosive power, so it doesn't even make and fuckin sense in the first place."

    😂 I never considered this before, very true!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,808 ✭✭✭irelandrover


    For me it's more make or break for SA than Ireland.

    If Ireland win and South Africa don't get a bonus point, then they are reliant on the result of the Ireland/Scotland game to get through.

    If Ireland lose then they still have destiny in their own hands.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,087 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    There is a big difference between Smith being comfortable on the wing because he played 7s and having to play there for a significant portion of an international game against the world no.1. Having him on the wing will limit their kick case and he'd seriously struggle with positioning. There would be opportunities there to exploit, doubly so if Kolbe was also at FB.

    I'd love to see Smith up against Hansen, his head would be wrecked as Hansen isn't on his wing half the time. It's one thing to defend on the wing when you just stand near the sideline and watch the opposite winger, completely different task if the wing keeps going infield and you don't know what to do.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,850 ✭✭✭CMcsporty


    That would another fitting way of showing up the ridiculously unbalanced selection from the unbalanced selectors.

    Obvious selection to focus on ruck and line speed.

    Fourie, Smith and van Staden all turnover specialist off the bench.

    https://x.com/oom_rugby/status/1704372493060898993?s=46&t=LZNAt8uQdNSsqynXTsT0dw



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,280 ✭✭✭techdiver


    Watching and reading all the previews of the game it seems it's all about South Africa. Maybe that's a good thing for Ireland. I get a patronising tone from pundits (especially from the southern hemisphere) regarding Ireland. They always refer to us as the worlds number 1 team but with an undertone of us just being custodians until the big boys restore the natural order.

    Maybe the attitude is fair. We have never performed against a big team when under any expectations at a world cup. Apart from the heroics in 1991, we can point to the Australia win in 2011, but we were massive underdogs that day, so not under any real pressure. The only other win of note at a world cup was against a poor France team in 2015. Unfortunately this is our history at world cups. it is very grim reading.

    Now is the time to step up and make a statement in my opinion. I believe we will win this game. I also think/hope that the 7/1 split will backfire on South Africa at some stage. I keep hearing about how great and versatile all the South African players are but there is no substitute for specialist positions. I see Kwagga being held up as a man that can play anywhere and the evidence for that is he played 7's. Now, come on. Playing 7's is like a totally different sport to potentially coming in on the wing or at centre in a World Cup against a good team.

    Whilst sounding over simplified, all Ireland need to do is close to break even at the breakdown and set piece. Without that South Africa have shown nothing to make me believe they can win without sheer forward dominance (I know it has been enough thus far). I'm going over to the game and I am equally excited and unbelievably nervous. The one thing I want from Ireland though is to play to their potential. If they do that and lose to a better team then fair play. Too often in World Cups "good" Irish teams have completely capitulated and that would just be another disaster if that were to happen.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,869 ✭✭✭Jacovs


    True, the 1 extra point is a nice to have at the moment going into this game. I still would expect Ireland to beat Scotland, and SA to beat Tonga, which leaves both teams safe regardless of this weekend's result. In my mind this game just decides who plays France or NZ in the next round.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,316 ✭✭✭✭Clegg


    The Indo is reporting from Ireland pre-match press conference. Simon Easterby says Ireland most likely going with a 5/3 split for Saturday. It's the right call imo. We shouldn't change our plans just because South Africa are trying something different.

    Jack Conan isn't available. Hopefully he's back for the Scotland game.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,280 ✭✭✭techdiver


    Definitely the right call. If we had gone for 6/2 it would have made a statement that South Africa were in our heads and we don't trust our own game plan.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    South Africa have said they are doing something unorthodox specifically to counter our game. So you could understand a rethink by Ireland if that made the most sense, but I'm of half a mind that SA will field a different 23 to the one posted so for that reason alone I would look to impose our game rather than focusing too much on countering what they may do.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,422 ✭✭✭✭salmocab


    I wonder is the 7 forwards subs being a bit overstated, one of the extras is a second row, not sure how much that’s going to sway things, same for the extra back row. It’s two extra pairs of fresh legs up front which while nice isn’t exactly game changing. It’s a high risk move with the poor cover it gives out back and I’m not sure the payoff is close to enough.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,605 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    Exactly, there's no one on the bench who could break a game open if they're trailing.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,313 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    It definitely has been overstated.

    As has been shown by other posts earlier in the thread , the impact of the 7-1 bench in the NZ game is vastly overstated.

    NZ were playing terribly and were down to 14/13 players at various stages in the game.

    The game was long won before SA brought on their bench.

    It may have been a consolation score , but NZ had their best period of the game after that SA bench came on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,422 ✭✭✭✭salmocab


    Yeah I was thinking that, late on if I was chasing a score I’d want a fresh set of legs in the centre over in the second row



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,313 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Indeed - If they don't manage to get the forward dominance they are clearly going for , what then?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,109 ✭✭✭SaoPaulo41


    Etzebeth will pull out and Pollard will move to subs bench , can definitely see it happening.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 686 ✭✭✭farmerval


    There's also the fact that the extra two forwards are far from their best. E.G assuming they change both second rows, the extra one is the fourth best available, unlikely to be a world beater, similarly the extra back row will be the fifth choice back row of those currently available.

    If SA have only one back on the bench, can they bring him on before say the 75th minute, in case of injuries? Meaning the entire set of backs will have to effectively play the full game. What if one of the backs has a stinker?

    Virtually every team changes their halves and one other back during a game to freshen up the pivotal positions.

    I feel this is all about Rassie trying to make it all abut Rassie, like his traffic lights. Imagine him taking over as director of rugby here, he couldn't help himself getting front and centre on everything. Wouldn't be surprised if they change their bench make up because of an injury before the game,



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,735 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    But there’s real merit in Hendo to start, Beirne to 6, POM to 7 with McCarthy and VDF on the bench.

    Possibly merit to this but personally think it’s unlikely they’ll go with both McCarthy and VDF on the bench as neither have really been jumpers, so can’t see them bringing them both on for the final 20-25 minutes.



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