RWC 2023 Ireland v South Africa Buildup - Sat 23rd Sep 20:00 Paris

Very risky to force a situation where JS has to play 80.

Yup. Willemse has plenty of experience at 12. Kolbe has played 15 a good few times at club level (and started there against Ireland last year). He's also played outhalf a couple of times back in the day for Toulouse.

Reinach doesn't have much experience on the wing but I'd have limited concern with him slotting in there. They could even just go for Kwagga Smith on the wing who isn't quite Macalou but he is very comfortable in that area of the pitch having played for SA 7s for years.

SA have a significant amount of flexibility in their back line which allows them consider these things but regardless, an injury to Libbok or DDA would be very disruptive to their game.

I hope we take them to a dark place in terms of fitness and look to keep the ball moving an in play as much as possible in the second half similar to how we took on France. Someone like Fickou is world class but was absolutely gasping for air in those closing stages.

I can see us getting very frustrated with the game on Saturday though. I fully expect SA to slow things right down and look to kill the clock as much as possible. The ball in play in the second half of the second test against the Lions was 14 minutes which is incredibly low.

I'm surprised that WR have given this game to Ben O'Keeffe given the controversy around the officiating in the first two Lions tests. No matter, if we win it will be because we inflicted our game plan on them and vice versa if they do so.

What I suspect is the case is I think Etzebeth is not fully ready. The way the Springboks have talked about his injury situation is they have made it believable he's fit to play but have also painted the situation in a way that if he ends up being ruled out it wont come as a surprise or come across as cynical to the average viewer. I suspect Rassie and Nianbar are going to look at Pollard in training to see how he is fitness wise in order to see if he's ready to feature in a game of this magnitude, if he is they'll go for him and if not I think they'll go for Le Roux on the bench with Kleyn coming in for Etzebeth in the SR.

I wouldn't be shocked if we played Beirne at 6 but with POM moving across and VDF on the bench. Which isn't a criticism of VDF but I don't think we can go into this game without POM as a jumping option.

I'd also prefer VDF injecting pace and massive linespeed from the bench in the final 25 minutes as well as an open field carrying threat if the game does present an open field opportunity.

If Conan doesn't make it, I'd be happy to go with a bench of Kelleher/Sheehan, Kilcoyne, Bealham, McCarthy, VDF, Murray, Crowley, Henshaw.

I can see the attraction of having Conan in there instead of Henshaw for a 6/2 but I think it's such a big risk to do that with our lack of flexibility compared to SA. We also have a couple of backs who are relatively injury prone; Lowe, JGP, Sexton and Ringrose all spent chunks of the season out injured. I'd hate to see the reshuffle required if Ringrose went down. Sexton would see more traffic down his channel than ever seen before and be asked to play the 80 (which he might well do anyway).

This week is dragging so much. Really can't wait for this game!

Have SA gone with they 7-1 split to directly counter our quick ruck speed and our fitness? Have players a mash rucks with abandon for 45 mins to be replaced with someone who can smash rucks with abandon for 35, and do that across the pack. If so it’s a testament to where we are that they feel the need to do something so radical to try and bottle us up.

If we can get into our rhythm early and get a score or two then it will be interesting to see how that impacts the game. Is this a SA side capable of chasing a game if they need to? Sure the starting XV are excellent, but that bench isn’t one that I would think could add the impact needed to turn things if they are behind.

In a way I’d really would love to see us stick to our guns with a 5-3 bench and just select our best XV. Send them a message that they can worry about our game, we won’t worry about theirs. But there’s real merit in Hendo to start, Beirne to 6, POM to 7 with McCarthy and VDF on the bench. We’ve seen VDF bring a lot of pace off the bench already in the last few weeks so they may already have been planning for something like that.