Nagorno-Karabakh

Is it clear yet how far the Azerbaijanis have advanced? From what I understand the Armenians were pretty thoroughly defeated in the last war so it isn't really likely they can stop Azerbaijan by themselves.

Armenia is in such a poor position geopolitically. They are technically allied with Russia but Putin clearly doesn't like their president and I think the Armenians would like leave his camp if they could.

I'm afraid that ethnic cleansing you describe will indeed occur.

It might have the opposite effect ultimately as long as Azerbaijan don't cross Armenia's international border. The loss of Nagorno Karabakh/Artsakh would remove a frozen conflict and remove a lot of Russia's leverage over Armenia and Azerbaijan. Unfortunately I do expect it'll be a horrific outcome for the Armenians living in the region and I suspect the Azerbaijanis will cross Armenia's border to create a land bridge to their exclave.

Both went several years without investing much in defence budgets , Armenian was spending less than 300 million per year, until last year when they spent 700 million, Azerbaijanis have spent close to 7 billion over the last 3 years alone, realistically the biggest players in the region now are the Turks and Iranians ,both would be more than happy to sell either side hundreds of millions in weapons, while both hating each other,

Interesting times ahead

Turkey and Azerbaijan both want Armenia to be wiped off the map.

The Turks still deny the Armenian genocide, and are funneling arms to the Azeris, as are Israel but for different reasons. Israel are allied with Azerbaijan as a proxy against Iran. NW Iran has some Azerbaijani separatists who are causing havoc every now and then.

Armenia look set to lose out here though, they don't have the money or resources to protect themselves, and nobody else really cares enough to step in and protect them. Best case for Armenia is if Iran escalate against Azerbaijan to deny them the land corridor between their western enclave.

The Armenia that exists today is tiny in comparison with historic Armenia. Most Armenians used to live in what is now eastern Turkey. Some fled the 1915 genocide, but most were murdered or died on forced marches into the desert.

Even if NKB is legally part of Azerbeijan, that's no excuse to allow another round of ethnic cleansing.

Its shameful that governments arent doing anything.

An Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan is on the point of starvation (economist.com)

Aliyev gets his Sudetenland.

My concern would be future desire by the Azeris on a land bridge to their enclave, as others have touched on. They seemingly achieved their goal this time with about twenty four hours of fighting. The last major flare up was 2020. Half a decade down the line when attention has gone elsewhere, will they try for that?

Part of it is to do with various territorial disputes in the past. Also there are considerable links, particularly at the military level, between Israel and Azerbaijan. The old proverb the enemy of my enemy...

Looks like Aliyev's taking lessons from the orcs.

https://twitter.com/CSI_humanrights/status/1704860465220722998

The 120,000 Artsakh Armenians are set to flee to Armenia.

On one hand, I'm sort of relieved that threats of Azeri rape & death squads running rampant haven't come to pass, but on the other hand, 120,000 people have been made homeless.

You would begin to wonder if the Armenian prime minister can survive this? Putin once again showing he is the master strategist by being unable to stop this from happening. The fallout from this could embolden others, particularly the opposition in Chechnya, to have another go.

Armenia doesn't have a very handsome president and sexy first lady.

It's their own fault they should vote for better looking politicians if they want to get more international support.

This is an unfortunate example of where another conflict can have serious implications elsewhere. If the Russians weren't bogged down in Ukraine no way would Azerbaijan have had the resolve to do this.

I don't think Russia have the capacity to intervene here and no one else is going to have the will either.

I think that was funnier in your head maybe.

There's a couple of things to say in response to this.

The media in democracies and the general public only have so much bandwidth for foreign affairs/news. An awful lot of people pay very little attention to what is going on outside their own country unless it is something massive (like Russia's invasion of Ukraine - it is still the larger and more important event).

I don't like that social media/hashtag or issue of the hour type culture you are sneering at but think in fairness Ukraine and what is happening there is always going to be more relavant to us. Assuming here you don't live somewhere else nearer to or more affected by Armenia/Azerbaijan, or are not a disembodied global-citizen than finds the ability + time to emote and care equally about every problem and tragedy in the world.

Finally on the last (it seems nobody gives a f-ck), what do you want to see done here? What do you expect of that old chestnut that comes in for a lot of stick - the "international community" or what exactly would you like to see your country (if not Irish) or Ireland put on the line to affect what is happening? edit: (Unfortunately) I don't think words online, or the general public opinion in Europe, or criticism from politcians here is going to have that much influence on Azerbaijan. It's all very depressing.

Thanks.

Talk about the cat that got the cream when the Azeri president met Erdoğan yesterday. Lavrov is becoming the new comical Ali,between his pronouncements about good will gestures and the latest gem that Russia worked to secured a peace deal on this issue. When every one knows Russia was too weak to intervene. I bet he will be speaking about another good will gesture sometime next year!