FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

21-09-2023 7:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121139114#Comment_121139114

Agnes should make a lot of noise but not do much damage 😉

Dazler97 · 21-09-2023 10:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121140098#Comment_121140098

Ye hahaha

21-09-2023 10:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121140697#Comment_121140697

Grandad is the only one who should get a yellow warning.

nacho libre · 22-09-2023 10:13am

Next run could well flip to something more unsettled again as this does not have huge support .

Meteorite58 · 22-09-2023 8:37pm

GFS wants to bring another Oíche na Gaoithe Móire!

National Hurricane saying 70% chance of Cyclone formation in 48hrs. Of course this should be treated as pure FI, anything could happen in the next two weeks but something of interest to track to see wherever it ends up. I must say I am keen to see how a big system will stick the distance with the warm seas this year.

Dazler97 · 23-09-2023 3:33pm

Met Office models showing a low on Wednesday morning which is remains of ophelia and similar to the track in October 2017 which was also ophilia

Screenshot_20230923_153007_Met Office.jpg

24-09-2023 1:03am

We're looking increasingly likely to take a storm hit.

Nasty fecker, depending on the track on the ECM, for Wednesday.

And GFS

Elmer Blooker · 24-09-2023 6:36pm

hopefully this comes off, t’would be nice to have T-shirt weather to start October,

24-09-2023 8:04pm

A very promising ECM update there with not only this Wednesday storm not as bad as previously feared but a ridge of high pressure building for the week commencing October 2nd.

nacho libre · 25-09-2023 8:28am

We could have a extended period of settled weather if the ECM long range is correct. In the more immediate term the GFS is showing it settling down now too. Sryan's reverse psychology may just have worked again. That man is a clever clogs!

nacho libre · 26-09-2023 5:41pm

That is some amount of blocking if it transpired! The GFS is good at spotting trends, but does it go against the idea of a strong El Nino?

giveitholly · 27-09-2023 9:57pm

Any sign of a high coming our way?

27-09-2023 10:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121166788#Comment_121166788

Nothing really in the next 7 days, some nice enough days. GFS hinting at a bit of a high, but 10 days away so too far out. The weekend will bring spells of rain.

jkforde · 27-09-2023 10:17pm

GFS has a nasty looking low on Oct. 8, currently brewing in the Caribbean, hope it goes elsewhere if it develops and heads NE

.Donegal. · 28-09-2023 9:39pm

ECM ridiculously mild at the end of the run. 850pHa 18c in October

28-09-2023 10:55pm

If it came to pass I wonder what temperature we'd reach.. Usually we add 8c isn't it. I'd say 23c would be the max. Given 25.1c was recorded in 1906 on 1st October in Clongowes. You'd drop a degree or 2 by 8 October. Of course sunshine is a biggie. 21c was recorded on 19 October 1997.

sryanbruen · 29-09-2023 12:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121171037#Comment_121171037

Our closest resemblance would be (amusingly also a Sunday 8th) 8th October 1995. Shannon Apt had 21.1C on this day with good sunshine - unbroken for many, particularly in the east. That was with 12-14C 850s and dry soils continuing from the unprecedented drought and hot summer though there had been a wet start to the month.

Even Dublin Apt, normally a rather cooler spot, had 21.0C and 9.6 hrs of sun. Proper Indian summer day. Kilkenny had frost on September 29th so a technical one too :P

29-09-2023 12:44pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121172455#Comment_121172455

That was a nice warm month. 2nd year in college and never wore a jacket all month. All part of a memorable year.

nacho libre · 30-09-2023 9:36am

Toasty for the time of year. Will a northerly follow courtesy of a mid Atlantic ridge per a recent GFS Run? That would be a shock to the system!

almostthere12 · 30-09-2023 6:54pm

Very different GFS and ECM charts for next weekend. The GFS has the low steam rolling through while the ECM has nacho's chart above. Hopefully the ECM is on the ball!

Elmer Blooker · 30-09-2023 7:46pm

quite incredible … and even more incredible if it happens! The 25.2c in 1908 would surely be under threat.

sryanbruen · 30-09-2023 8:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121178338#Comment_121178338

Indeed it would, even shows a raw 25C over Dublin... higher than July/August 🙃

sryanbruen · 01-10-2023 9:55pm

Christ. 19/20C @ 850hPa over Ireland in October on the 12z UKMO and GEM. That is absolutely bonkers.

Gonzo · 02-10-2023 12:24am

Certainly looking very warm for the time of year next weekend, low twenties possible and maybe a 25C in Phoenix Park if we can get perfect direct hit sunny conditions with maximum uppers and minimum onshore breezes. Imagine if we had a plume like this in July, the uppers would be several degrees warmer perhaps and then the much longer daylight hours during the prime time of summer. For end of first week of October these charts are still remarkable, haven't seen anything like it since I first started posting on this weather forum nearly 2 decades ago.

US3 · 02-10-2023 3:14am

Looks like the lawnmower will get 1 more go. Hopefully those charts verify

nacho libre · 02-10-2023 9:52am

No record will be broken, but 23 or 24 will be incredible for the time of year. We could then be looking at a plunge in temperatures in the days afterwards courtesy of Northerly.

sparrowcar · 02-10-2023 10:15am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121183827#Comment_121183827

Still lots of changes between now and the weekend, the charts suggest there's a strong possibility that records "could" be broken.

nacho libre · 02-10-2023 10:29am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121183890#Comment_121183890

I doubt it, the 850 temps are very high, still you need a set of perfect conditions for that to happen, although I could be wrong. Let's see!

Elmer Blooker · 02-10-2023 11:16am

Exactly, perfect conditions required.

A direct southerly, good sunshine and the foehn effect could possibly break the long standing 25.2c at the PP.

Shannon too can often be influenced by the Kerry mountains in these conditions.

the 6z says no breakdown to cooler weather.

sryanbruen · 02-10-2023 11:54am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121183304#Comment_121183304

To put those charts into context from last night... before June 2019, the 20C isotherm has likely never paid Ireland a visit based on all the charts I've viewed over the years. We've gotten to 19C but not 20C. Then June 2019 came and did it. Then July 2022. So the prospects of it being possible (not saying likely) in October given perfect parameters, that's well I frankly have no words to describe.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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