RWC 2023 Ireland v South Africa Buildup - Sat 23rd Sep 20:00 Paris

Shehal · 21-09-2023 5:34pm

Interestingly looking at the pack and benches they are actually identical in weight, which is impressive considering the SA bench has 2 more forward!

phog · 21-09-2023 5:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121139444#Comment_121139444

Don't tell Matt Williams

Neil3030 · 21-09-2023 5:38pm

We have two very effective tools that will hopefully give their backs a very tough shift.

First is our ability to go wide, early. We practiced this a good bit against Romania. Of course, the Boks have an incredible Blitz defense. But our forwards are faster. Once we get rucks in the middle of the field, they have to give respect to an attack coming either side. We can then fold forwards onto the side we choose to create an overlap. I think that's where the vdF selection is so important. I.e., he's the kind of guy who can line up on the short side as a legit carrying threat, but then be effective in the first ruck if we go down the open side, slowly creating the overlap. If we can get their back three rushing up to fill gaps, I'm then looking for Lowe, Hansen etc. to kick long down the tramline. Or recycle and have great options for the hoist.

Second is how we've probed that space in behind rucks with either chip kicks, dinks off the outside of the boot, even sniping runs by Murray against Tonga. If this can draw in a full-back or winger to cover, we're again nicely poised to strike out wide.

If they're coming hard in the middle, we eventually stretch them out wide.

If they're set out wide, go over the top and up the middle.

Plenty of options. And their backs exhausted by the decisions they're making all night.

"We shall fight on the beaches..." etc.

Cateym · 21-09-2023 6:14pm

I dreamt last night we won 24-12 😆

Quin_Dub · 21-09-2023 6:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121139444#Comment_121139444

Are you saying Conor Murray is fat??

Shehal · 21-09-2023 6:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121139633#Comment_121139633

No, I'm saying Cobus Rainach is skinny!

sxt · 21-09-2023 6:32pm

South Africa are overcooked and missing key players. They are also suffering from delusions of grandeur.

The hooker that they lost was by far the best in the world . They are also sorely missing a penalty kicking machine that never misses. That was something South Africa always relied on

I expect Ireland to find holes and run through them at angles many many times. Ireland to get a big lead and win

fitz · 21-09-2023 6:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121139179#Comment_121139179

Arendse is due one for that, tbf.

Neil3030 · 21-09-2023 6:48pm

Good (hour-long) tactical deep-dive here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehLs4efA7uM

PTH2009 · 21-09-2023 7:15pm

IF we win are we through ?

A lose without a BP (even losing with it) would mean a winner takes all game against Scotland. Scotland will pick up 10pts easily I think in their next 2 games

Neil3030 · 21-09-2023 7:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121139926#Comment_121139926

Any win denying them a BP and we are guaranteed at least second. Scotland could still beat us to go top.

Any win with them getting BPs, we'd need to match that many points against Scotland, essentially.

21-09-2023 7:26pm

I think we'll do it as the squad is in good nick. I'd fear meeting SA in the competition again. Very hard to beat top opposition twice.

Cookiemunster · 21-09-2023 7:29pm

A BP win with nothing for SA would put us 6 clear of them and we'd be in the quarters.

Any other type of win means we need something from the Scotland game.

leakyboots · 21-09-2023 7:34pm

Beat them with a BP, send out the reserves against Scotland to narrowly lose, bye bye SA?

TheRona · 21-09-2023 7:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121140000#Comment_121140000

For all of SA's mind games etc, it would be hilarious to see them go out that way. Outfoxed.

I think it only works if SA gets nothing from the Ireland game, and Scotland wins all 3 remaining matches with try BP.

PTH2009 · 21-09-2023 7:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121140000#Comment_121140000

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121140007#Comment_121140007

That outcome would be priceless

21-09-2023 7:44pm

This team has become hardened under Andy Farrell. It mirrors himself and his rugby league background.

I feel confident that we'll perform. 1987, we weren't much good, fair enough performance. 1991 and 1995 much the same. Quality not the best. Lens 1999 marked a transition from poor to being competitive in the 6N from 2000 on. 2003, we should have avoided France in the QF by beating Australia, we had the chances. 2007 just awful given our quality. 2011, did the donkey work beating Australia, topping the pool, first half awful v Wales in the QF. 2015 topped the pool beating France. Injury and suspension cost us v Argentina. I think we've better depth now. 2019, peaked a year too soon, chasing form all year. Confidence down.

For the first WC I think we're the real deal. Just look at our subs for Saturday.

Pete_Cavan · 21-09-2023 7:47pm

Were official squads submitted today? If so, does that mean that 7/1 is locked in for SA unless there's late withdrawal?

The 7/1 bench really can't be justified. I can't think of a scenario where it can be 100% said that it was worth the risk (apart from 7 forwards being forced off with injuries). Even if they batter us up front and win, the extra forward is unlikely to have tipped the scales. There are very obvious scenarios where the 7/1 bench looks incredibly foolish afterwards and can be said to have cost them the game (most obviously any injury 10 - 15). To me, the risks hugely outweigh the potential rewards.

And why pick probably your least flexible back for the 1? At least Williams could go to the wing if needed and his pace would be a genuine threat. If going with a 7/1 bench, it probably makes more sense to also take the risk that your scrum half wont get injured, the risk of one of the other 6 backs getting injured is much higher. Any sort of risk assessment would surely show that having a scrum half who doesn't play any other positions as your only back on the bench only increases the risks associated with a 7/1 bench.

You can say that Smith can cover wing but in that case, he can’t replace a forward until late in the game in case of an injury in the backs. It would be better to just have another back on the bench, if he can slot in in more than one position. If a back gets injured you might be able to do a straight swap and not have to rearrange the whole backline to accommodate someone who'll be out of position anyway!

If they go into the game with the 7/1 bench, I think it'll look incredibly stupid by the final whistle.

21-09-2023 7:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121140007#Comment_121140007

Not getting a BP v Scotland with the chances they had was poor. It may haunt them.

The BP is worth more than a plus 2pts scoring differential over us v Romania.

bilston · 21-09-2023 8:06pm

Whatever about SA's bench, we have Sheehan, Henderson, Baird, Murray and Henshaw to come on, and in fact I'm adding Bealham to that list as well. That is serious depth with more bases covered than SA in what will be an attrition game for all players...backs and forwards.

These guys will have their say.

I can't wait for this. I think we'll get it done.

fitz · 21-09-2023 8:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121140144#Comment_121140144

Yeah, forget about the split...our bench looks more impactful, imo.

Ribs1234 · 21-09-2023 8:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121139432#Comment_121139432

I think we’ll see that line out move up the wing used in our game. Hope we recognise it (though they should be penalised like we were for getting in front of the jumper early)

edit: ignoring the bench stuff, how should we play them in the first half?

Enzokk · 21-09-2023 8:38pm

I wonder if you could get odds on one of the forward replacements getting a "rib" injury in warm-up and SA only having a backline player dressed to fill that spot on the bench. I would not be surprised if the 7-1 was a ploy to get Ireland to change tactic to a 6-2 split on the bench.

The 7-1 worked well against NZ because it was such a surprise that nobody saw until it was announced as the teams came out. Now that surprise factor is gone, I am not sure the benefit from the shock factor is there any longer, Ireland will not be surprised to have 7 forwards running into them knowing they only have to play for 50 minutes. They know it is coming.

Neil3030 · 21-09-2023 8:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121140144#Comment_121140144

It's only when you read that list; all bar Baird either are (or would have at one point been) the nailed-on starter in their position for Ireland.

And Baird is a freak human with untold upside.

ersatz · 21-09-2023 10:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121140289#Comment_121140289

I don't know that it did work against NZ. The cards killed them and the game was done and dusted by the time the subs came on, and then they didn't make anything like the impact that the coverage led people to expect, especially given they were playing against a team that had been down to 14 since the first quarter of the match. Maybe it was a ploy or maybe Rassie is just drinking his own bomb squad cool aid and hoping the sight of fresh forwards coming on intimidates the opposition.