FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Gonzo · 29-08-2023 5:51pm #1

September now less than 120 hours away so time to open the FI Autumn 2023 thread.

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Mod Note:

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward for Autumn 2023.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

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A new month, a new season and from the looks of things a new pattern change may well be on the way as we head from a very wet summer to perhaps signs of something dryer for the early part of Autumn.

First hint of a dryer pattern by 2nd September. Funny thing is it was 2nd September last year where we began a very wet autumnal pattern after the hot dry summer of 2022.

High pressure well and truly centered over us by the 5th.

IF this verifies this will be first genuine area of high pressure to influence our weather since mid June.

Deeper into FI the high shifts towards Scandinavia and we pull in a warm easterly from the continent. While this would make eastern areas cooler than the rest of the country the cooling effect from the sea breezes would be nowhere near as sharp as they were in May and first week of June.

We finish up with an area of low pressure from the Bay of Biscay trying to break down the warm and settled weather as we head towards mid September.

Temperatures on this GFS run getting close to mid 20s at times with low 20s quite widespread across the country especially if there are decent spells of sunshine.

Not a lot of rainfall over the first 10 days of September, very small amounts compared to what we've experienced all through July and various stages of August.

At the moment the models are looking good for things settling down with a warmer than average first half to September looking likely.

Meteorite58 · 29-08-2023 10:22pm

So far HP looks dominant if a bit fragile the further out we get, currently looks like holding out any weather of note. Rainfall totals look small after tomorrow night/ early Thurs and at that not amounting to much in general. Models holding the warming trend from the weekend, currently looks to taper off later in the week. If we get the winds with that easterly component then possibly getting the best temperatures in the Western half of the country, into the low 20's perhaps.

squarecircles · 30-08-2023 10:56pm

Wow,that didnt last long,did it,back to pissing it down again by the end of next week and off we run into more gloom and misery.

30-08-2023 11:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121049540#Comment_121049540

Hopefully it'll change back as quickly!

Gonzo · 31-08-2023 7:21pm

Models still look on track to deliver a lovely spell of warm and hopefully sunny weather through the opening 7 to 10 days of September, after that possibly turning cooler and more unsettled. Temperatures lifting up and taking off with mid 20s possible in many inland midland and western areas, low 20s closer to the coast and eastern areas. This shows up lovely on the GFS 12z ensembles.

Very little rainfall between now and the 10th of September, after that we may turn more unsettled but that is deep out in FI.

GEM is very similar, maybe a touch warmer than the GFS.

Later next week the high pressure may begin moving from anchored over us towards moving to Scandinavia, this may allow very warm south-easterly winds to flow our direction off a very warm continent.

A breakdown around 10th of September with low pressure from the Bay of Biscay possibly breaking down things.

Higher pressure then tries to re-establish itself particularly across southern areas.

By the end of this run we start getting much cooler and more unsettled but we're mid way through September by this point and i'll be heading to the Malaga region 2 days after this.

At the moment we are looking at a 5 to 10 day warm spell which will bring a lovely start to the autumn. The length of this warm spell is a bit uncertain, it may only last 5 to 7 days but could go beyond that. After such a poor summer we are very lucky to be getting this warm spell right at the start of September when summer style temperatures are still very much possible.

10-09-2023 10:35pm

Medium range 10 day FI looks great... Like the June dry spell I feel this past week will be a distant memory. Ah well, great to get it.

Meteorite58 · 12-09-2023 9:31pm

The charts certainly looking very unsettled , LP after LP, some very wet conditions if the models current output verifies, temperature gradients steeper as we move into Autumn, some blustery days and could see some very high rainfall accumulations. Temperatures up and down, probably some wild swings as LP move through. The jet looks to take a Southerly dive, mobile Atlantic.

15-09-2023 9:54am

It would appear that Ireland could experience Hurricane conditions the week after next. From Monday 25th September there are indications of stormy weather heading our way from the Atlantic. It will be very interesting how this storm will play out over the next 10 days or so.

Hooter23 · 15-09-2023 10:58am

It still looks like a Hurricane on the charts just to south west of ireland in 10 days time....moving at very fast speed in our direction too dangerous

Gonzo · 15-09-2023 12:04pm

Charts are looking very grim I have to say. We are heading into potentially a very prolonged unsettled period. These hurricanes may make their way towards us, several of them but they will be ex hurricanes by the time we get them, no doubt there will be plenty of wind and rain over the coming few weeks. While I am going away on Monday for 10 days I expect the current unsettled pattern to be still in place over Ireland by the time I get back.

Dazler97 · 15-09-2023 5:02pm

Screenshot_20230915_175812_My Hurricane Tracker Pro.jpg

This is hurricane lees track ,next week could be a stormy week ahead ,I posted this in the other thread accidentally apologise guys

PukkaStukka · 15-09-2023 5:44pm

I'm watching this one with concern. I'm travelling to the UK next weekend via ferry for an outdoor event on Sunday.

adocholiday · 15-09-2023 7:04pm

Just eh... Leaving this here

.Donegal. · 15-09-2023 7:08pm

Explosive cyclogenesis AKA a “weather bomb” day 9 to day 10 ECM. As always too far out to give it much thought at this point. IMO I think the potential is high for a named storm or 2 over the next 2 weeks.

.Donegal. · 15-09-2023 7:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121115297#Comment_121115297

I think that’s the highest modelled gust I’ve seen for us. Usually the modelled mental gusts are over a mountain range but never that high or extensive.

15-09-2023 7:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121115297#Comment_121115297

Mostly offshore is the only good thing!!

sryanbruen · 15-09-2023 7:56pm

Yep autumn has gotten the foothold of any attempts at trying to get in more ridging as the zonal flow naturally strengthens this time of year and gets increasingly difficult to see high pressure.

A few weeks ago, I said MJO activity that was forecast would favour a build up in pressure towards mid-September. The heatwave was not that. The heatwave was purely the result of ex-hurricane Franklin amplifying pressure northward and the strong nature of the high pressure aloft allowed heat to build rather than it being advected northward from the south. It was more indicative of a summer spell than a September one. September is usually reliant on warm air advection so this is another aspect of the heatwave that was exceptional in my opinion.

The MJO activity, much like what happened in July, did not come off as forecast and has completely collapsed. This meant that without aid from hurricanes (which will come completely unforeseen on modelling output due to their tricky nature of forecasting), there is little chance of seeing high pressure return for a significant period of time. Sure the odd transient ridge in between fronts can never be ruled out but no more than a day or two with the Atlantic well back in dominance.

Others have mentioned this already but it definitely seems like this year we seem to keep alternating wet and dry after a few weeks, the wet Dec/Jan spell to the exceptionally dry late Jan and Feb to the wettest March on record followed by a rather unsettled April too to a mixed May but very dry second half up to mid-June then a changeover to unsettled with the wettest July on record continuing into much of August to the September heatwave to now this prolonged looking autumn unleashed spell. Nothing consistent about this year at all.

Carol25 · 16-09-2023 10:30am

Perhaps that storm will stay out in the Atlantic thus giving us less destructive conditions?

pauldry · 16-09-2023 5:50pm

Now it's further NW with a warm pull of air to end September that would bring over 20c for the final week.

Elmer Blooker · 16-09-2023 7:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121119519#Comment_121119519

Yes, reminding me of the beginning of Oct 1985 when the temperature got into the low 20s ….. after an appalling summer of course.

sryanbruen · 16-09-2023 9:48pm

The remains of Margot now looks like it could aid high pressure building by day 10 on the latest main two model runs. Did say these could pop up at short notice in model output given the nature of hurricanes. Doesn't look particularly warm at this point though this could change easily to something warmer or indeed back to unsettled.

I'm fed up of this muck already so hopefully we start seeing these signs become a trend.

Gonzo · 16-09-2023 11:53pm

High pressure over Ireland from the 29th would do me nicely! Last thing I want after 10 days in Spain is to return to weather like we've experienced over the past 2 days, cold, damp and wet.

nacho libre · 17-09-2023 9:18pm

It looks increasingly likely September will end on a settled note.

Elmer Blooker · 18-09-2023 7:12am

fingers X , and may this continue well in October, all cold winters follow anticyclonic Octobers hence the old weather lore … ‘for every fog in October a snowfall in winter’

sounds ridiculous I know but so does the St Swithin legend which even some meteorologists admit has an element of truth to it.

gandalfio · 18-09-2023 12:36pm

So what date does this potential settled spell start on? Abd for how long is it predicted to last?

pauldry · 18-09-2023 10:19pm

Around 26th to 28th September will last into start of October if we are lucky but it will be getting dark by 7 then so no 27c days just 21c.

Meteorite58 · 20-09-2023 7:28pm

The Atlantic becoming very active and turbulent, fast jet close to or over us, remnants of Hurricanes and tropical features in the mix, taking on a look of being very unsettled with some very wet days next week, remains to be seen if storms come close to us, will be watching for fast forming wave depressions being spun off the jet. Air temperatures up and down depending on frontal activity and position of warm sectors, some mid teens showing up at times, nights do look to be getting cooler getting down to single figures.

sryanbruen · 20-09-2023 7:45pm

Huge model wobble the past 48 hours alright, any attempts of ridging from the south gone just like that. Ah well that's the life of these hurricanes and tropical cyclones wreaking havoc with the NWP output. Sometimes they can hold in the Atlantic and allow ridging northward on their eastern side, we strike gold with a lovely spell of weather. Or they can add oomph to the jet stream and cause zonality. Autumn astronomically starting on Saturday morning so I guess it's only appropriate.

pauldry · 21-09-2023 1:44pm

The UK weather said a low pressure developing quicker off the coast of the Eastern US has delayed our High until later next week.

almostthere12 · 21-09-2023 2:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121138610#Comment_121138610

It would be good to get a decent weekend out of it if it comes towards the end of the week.

Dazler97 · 21-09-2023 3:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121138610#Comment_121138610

And if that's named believe it or not it will be ophelia , current models suggest it may make it a low end tropical storm but it will be a rain maker for the eastern seaboard of America, I'm keeping an eye on Tuesday for us as we could have our first named storm which would be Agnes (mrs brown lol ) that's nice

21-09-2023 6:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121139114#Comment_121139114

Agnes should make a lot of noise but not do much damage 😉

Dazler97 · 21-09-2023 9:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121140098#Comment_121140098

Ye hahaha

21-09-2023 9:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121140697#Comment_121140697

Grandad is the only one who should get a yellow warning.

nacho libre · 22-09-2023 9:13am

Next run could well flip to something more unsettled again as this does not have huge support .

Meteorite58 · 22-09-2023 7:37pm

GFS wants to bring another Oíche na Gaoithe Móire!

National Hurricane saying 70% chance of Cyclone formation in 48hrs. Of course this should be treated as pure FI, anything could happen in the next two weeks but something of interest to track to see wherever it ends up. I must say I am keen to see how a big system will stick the distance with the warm seas this year.

Dazler97 · 23-09-2023 2:33pm

Met Office models showing a low on Wednesday morning which is remains of ophelia and similar to the track in October 2017 which was also ophilia

Screenshot_20230923_153007_Met Office.jpg

24-09-2023 12:03am

We're looking increasingly likely to take a storm hit.

Nasty fecker, depending on the track on the ECM, for Wednesday.

And GFS

Elmer Blooker · 24-09-2023 5:36pm

hopefully this comes off, t’would be nice to have T-shirt weather to start October,

24-09-2023 7:04pm

A very promising ECM update there with not only this Wednesday storm not as bad as previously feared but a ridge of high pressure building for the week commencing October 2nd.

nacho libre · 25-09-2023 7:28am

We could have a extended period of settled weather if the ECM long range is correct. In the more immediate term the GFS is showing it settling down now too. Sryan's reverse psychology may just have worked again. That man is a clever clogs!

nacho libre · 26-09-2023 4:41pm

That is some amount of blocking if it transpired! The GFS is good at spotting trends, but does it go against the idea of a strong El Nino?

giveitholly · 27-09-2023 8:57pm

Any sign of a high coming our way?

27-09-2023 9:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121166788#Comment_121166788

Nothing really in the next 7 days, some nice enough days. GFS hinting at a bit of a high, but 10 days away so too far out. The weekend will bring spells of rain.

jkforde · 27-09-2023 9:17pm

GFS has a nasty looking low on Oct. 8, currently brewing in the Caribbean, hope it goes elsewhere if it develops and heads NE

.Donegal. · 28-09-2023 8:39pm

ECM ridiculously mild at the end of the run. 850pHa 18c in October

28-09-2023 9:55pm

If it came to pass I wonder what temperature we'd reach.. Usually we add 8c isn't it. I'd say 23c would be the max. Given 25.1c was recorded in 1906 on 1st October in Clongowes. You'd drop a degree or 2 by 8 October. Of course sunshine is a biggie. 21c was recorded on 19 October 1997.

sryanbruen · 29-09-2023 11:41am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121171037#Comment_121171037

Our closest resemblance would be (amusingly also a Sunday 8th) 8th October 1995. Shannon Apt had 21.1C on this day with good sunshine - unbroken for many, particularly in the east. That was with 12-14C 850s and dry soils continuing from the unprecedented drought and hot summer though there had been a wet start to the month.

Even Dublin Apt, normally a rather cooler spot, had 21.0C and 9.6 hrs of sun. Proper Indian summer day. Kilkenny had frost on September 29th so a technical one too :P

29-09-2023 11:44am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121172455#Comment_121172455

That was a nice warm month. 2nd year in college and never wore a jacket all month. All part of a memorable year.

nacho libre · 30-09-2023 8:36am

Toasty for the time of year. Will a northerly follow courtesy of a mid Atlantic ridge per a recent GFS Run? That would be a shock to the system!

almostthere12 · 30-09-2023 5:54pm

Very different GFS and ECM charts for next weekend. The GFS has the low steam rolling through while the ECM has nacho's chart above. Hopefully the ECM is on the ball!

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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