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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,512 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    The BRICS don’t have as much power as you think. You’re talking about countries who are financially unstable with unstable currencies and with very poor infrastructure (china being the exception) that rely on investment from US & Europe whether it is buying their mountains of debt or FDI. Some of them don’t even have a basic thing like electricity 24 hours a day.

    They won’t have power unless there own citizens believe in the countries and choose to hold their money in their currency as opposed to having to do so because of exchange controls etc.

    In reality what you have is a group with members with natural resources and 2 members hungry for resources (China and India). There is no economic union, no standard tariffs or trade deals



  • Registered Users Posts: 12 TK_Lemonade


    Actions of BRICS can force EU and US to spend money, like they have done for Ukraine.

    The tens if not hundreds of billions spent by the EU has to come from somewhere. There's no such thing as free money.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,512 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Your talking about a war I’m talking about trading groups…big difference.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,904 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    So fragile lol...she named Xi for what he is that is all. It is good when politicians (Von der Leyen, or Baerbock, think your loon off Twitter spelled the name wrong) speak plainly even if you don't think it has any value.

    You or others who think the sun shines from Xi's bottom should just own it really IMO. Better than posting something sad like "German women are hysterical because of something in the water". Kind of pathetic there.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    China should be acknowledged for what it is a committed and highly dangerous enemy of the Western world, democracy, Human dignity etc.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,105 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    Lot of weak sentiment everywhere i am talking with friends who work with big banks here or local fintechs…looks like slowdown is picking momentum now !



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,324 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Probably a good idea to fix problems at home before starting to fix someone else's.

    VW EV to shut production citing the ending of government subsidies. You couldn't make it up, complaining about other countries receiving the very thing they have been handing out themselves. Probably they may head off to the states and set up shop there, seen as they are handing out massive subsidies to EV carmakers to set up shop.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,904 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Part of fixing what may be wrong (in the economy) is to acknowledge a lot of the foreign policy of Western countries has also been wrong for about 20-30 years or so.

    Baerbock said Xi was a dictator, just a fact. It is good a politician can admit that in public and is not so worried about "oh whatever will our good friends the CCP think of us, how will it affect corporate profits in China etc." any more.

    Also von der Leyen said that China "competes" unfairly, another statement of a fact obvious for decades that is finally, very late in the day, starting to spook big business in Europe which has been formerly politically indulged in their desires to transfer jobs and the crown jewels of their IP to China, mainly out of greed.

    Now Chinese industry has mostly extracted all they needed from them, will be pushing them out of China with govt. support and coming for their home markets (under the Chinese govt. "dual circulation"/mercantalism economic plan) they are not so sanguine.

    None of that is about trying to fix any "problems" in China from vantage point of Europeans...just calling it as it is.

    Of course you are almost always taking schadenfreude in other people's problems here, and never actually post your ideas for solutions/fixes so...🤷‍♂️ as usual.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,228 ✭✭✭green daries


    It should be it is in small circles. But it won't be widely condemned as it doesn't suit the cheap lifestyle that people want/have



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,228 ✭✭✭green daries




  • Registered Users Posts: 12 TK_Lemonade


    My own, probably unpopular view, is that for countries as big as China, USA, you need a dictator with strict laws to keep everyone under control.

    For all the complaints about government interference in China in private business, America for example is run by corporations, you worry about the next school shooting and might end up with a massive medical bill for getting sick.

    There was no great financial crash in China in 2008 and it's likely nothing similar would happen. Government would simply intervene and fix it. I've been reading about Chinas supposed property crash for a couple of years now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭brickster69


    ESPO now trading $0.5 higher than Brent, which is 56% above the oil cap. Mind you it is sent via pipeline so none of those nasty shipping charges to pay. Due to prices going up and down no doubt it will work again when prices fall below $60.

    Who would of thought eh ?



    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 698 ✭✭✭TedBundysDriver




  • Registered Users Posts: 698 ✭✭✭TedBundysDriver


    This guy sums it up as good as anyone. Hold on to your arses people.




  • Registered Users Posts: 17,977 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    It's a likeliness bar chart on a poll of fund managers. US debt was the most "likely" the month before, which says it all.

    Not much global exposure to Chinese MBS I'd imagine. Of course, if there's some real estate crash in the world's 2nd largest economy there will naturally be some knock-on effects, but depends on how big/deep it is, if it happens.

    This thread is a year and a half old, probably a thousand "big number scary" bar charts and graphs so far, not a global systemic credit crisis in sight yet.



  • Registered Users Posts: 426 ✭✭grumpyperson


    💯

    China is a one party system where the leader is elected which is totally different from the USA where there is a choice of electing a leader from either the pro abortion or the anti abortion party.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭brickster69


    German PPI falls to -12.6%. Unsurprisingly the highest ever recorded fall. Hopefully CPI follows.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Crude price shot up 2% from where it was on the news.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,049 ✭✭✭joseywhales


    Oh lawdy lawd...

    Firstly, there is no free press in countries like china, there is no independent verification of "facts", in fact they stopped publishing demographic information recently because they didnt like the numbers anymore. Therefore they are missing the first foundation of a civil society, critical review from non government entities. None of the information is trustworthy and before you say "whattabout Murica!", sure they lie as does every government but at least you can legally criticize them without fear and although post 9/11, they lost the plot a bit on individual liberty and privacy, at least there still is independent critical review of their "facts".

    Secondly, "keep people under control", what do you think the purpose of a government is? As far as I can tell its a social construct created to you know, SERVE the people, not make them subservient.

    You think western democracy is a nuthouse, fair enough but at least its a transparent nuthouse and the proof is in the prosperity(relative) of its people.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,186 ✭✭✭yagan


    If you truly believed in dictatorship you'd be keeping that opinion to yourself.



  • Registered Users Posts: 267 ✭✭Cyclonius


    One question would be to ask why such states need to be that size to begin with? If a large state is unable to continue to exist without a strongman to (temporarily) hold it together, then perhaps a superior option would be for it to be replaced with a number of smaller successor states.

    The issue with dictatorships, as can be seen both in Russia and China at present, is that such systems are inherently unstable, with information and feedback being highly filtered, and not reaching those in charge, creating situations where the leadership can be acting on wildly incorrect data. No one wants to be the barer of bad news, as they can be, and often are, punished for it, and instead invent statistics and data that their superiors want to see. There are no shortage of examples of such, including the massive miscalculations involved with the Russian invasion of Ukraine (i.e. the state of the Russian military was heavily exaggerated even to the Kremlin, the will of the Ukrainian people downplayed, etc.), doctored records showing record grain harvests during times of famine in the Soviet Union and PRC, etc. Even where it can be seen that the leadership has erred, the lack of non-violent ways to challenge said leadership can result in the situation becoming progressively worse, unless the leadership itself finally makes the necessary course corrections.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,374 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut


    He is catastrophe click-bait. His truth is in between the lines always, he just blows everything out of proportion to increase youtube revenue and sell his books but when you ignore the chaos, he does make good points,

    China isn't going to collapse though. They'll take a hit and then grow from that, it's how these things go. They're massive and the state has any potential threat of political rise up well and truly closed off.

    Always be weary of sources of information that make money from traffic.

    Beverly Hills, California



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,374 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut


    In real life of course. The anonymity of the internet sees different.

    I love how they think the US needs a dictatorship to keep everyone under control. If a people are "out of control" it means they are unhappy and instead of focusing on addressing what makes these people unhappy, they're resorting to dictatorship. It's ironic because they're here sharing these views that would see them locked up under a dictatorship.

    Western democracy is far far from perfect, but it's much better than a one person rule.

    Plenty of eegits like that about these days. Comforts of western life gone and they'll not be long changing their tune. It's funny that western comforts lead to this, complete historical amnesia.

    Beverly Hills, California



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,324 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Im very much of the opinion that what we have here is an illusion of democracy.

    I've never lived in China so I've no idea what life is like there for my native social equal.

    I've a fairly sweet deal here, being white, upper working class, educated and in a high paid job.

    If my Chinese equivalent lives a similar existence to me then I doubt it makes much of a difference tbh.



  • Registered Users Posts: 426 ✭✭grumpyperson


    I don't think we're as restricted as China but I have to agree. I'm sick of government messaging. There doesn't seem to be a normal party to vote for, just power mad nutbags.

    Post edited by grumpyperson on


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,512 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    It’s pretty obvious he isn’t posting from china:..:too big a risk to be locked up for the rest of his life.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Franco's Spain wasn't as restricted as China is today.


    From the late 40s to the late 90s a good argument could be made that China was the most controlled and restricted country in the last few centuries.


    Modern China is much better than 30 years ago, same as Putin's Russia is a much nicer State than the Soviet Union was, that isn't to say that it is nice but how truly awful those States were.

    They are still so far beneath us as to be beyond comprehension.



  • Registered Users Posts: 426 ✭✭grumpyperson


    Have you ever been to China or Russia? I was in Vietnam (closest to China). I don't recall thinking people were beneath me. When I grew up, I was taught to be respectful of other people's cultures. I guess everyone wasn't taught that? 🤨

    Anyway, this is the recession thread .... Looks like global West is heading towards recession now.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 34,862 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    I don't think we're as restricted as China

    Jesus wept

    The Dublin Airport cap is damaging the economy of Ireland as a whole, and must be scrapped forthwith.



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