The Hurt Locker: Ireland v South Africa. Saturday 23rd September. Stade DeFrance

A gimmick is a trick or device intended to attract attention or publicity. This perfectly describes the 'Bomb Squad' and I've no doubt Rassie Erasmus is absolutely loving the fact the moniker has stuck. In reality the team for tomorrow is more of a Hurt squad with the specific purpose of softening us up nicely for the rest of the tournament whilst winning if possible but not essentially.

The Hurt Locker

Opinion Piece - 'The Bomb Squad'.

I don't believe for a second that this is an entirely serious selection, I don't see it as a consistently viable tactic and I don't think South Africa would try this in a final. This is South Africa looking to beat us up for 80 minutes, make our time in the pool a tough one and win if things go their way, but ultimately they don't care who they play in the quarter final so aren't treating this game as seriously as Ireland. As three time winners, South Africa aren't thinking about quarter or semi finals - winning again is the only measure of success so if they have to beat France in a quarter or in a final it doesn't matter.

We're not in remotely the same boat and are still trying to pop our semi final cherry. In my opinion a win tomorrow is far more important for Ireland than it is for South Africa and I'm not sure they'll be at the same pitch as a result. I think the 7:1 bench is useful to get their first choice players off early and keep their diminished pack as fresh as possible. They regularly play 6:2 so it's not a massive variation, and they may feel that something specific like the breakdown is where to target us later in the game.

With Ireland's kicking game alone - I can't fully make sense of that SA team and the absence of Marx is a huge blow and weakens the bench. Whilst I thought Farrell handled the question about the bench split well there was a hint of him being dismissive about it as well and I don't think that was mind games, he looked bemused. As I said, I'm not entirely sure Rassie is being entirely serious, but no doubt he is loving the intrigue and attention.

Kicking

If tomorrow wasn't to be about the kicking battle, going 7:1 ensures that it will be. Ireland are quite likely the best kicking team in the World (if they aren't France are). Having no Pollard or the option of LeRoux leaves them exposed as the starting 15 stands, let alone if they have any injuries or serious fatigue. Either South Africa are ultra confident they have our number at line out or for some reason they don't think we're going to kick all day. I think we're well covered at lineout with our starting 15 and if we're concerned we can bring Baird on for VDF (POM Shifts to OS) to have an additional jumper.

With Murray, Crowley and Henshaw coming off the bench (all excellent kickers) it's the facet of the game which could considerably impact the result. Teams have gotten badly stung kicking to that South African back three but I back our defence and I think we'd be happy enough if our tackle count on their back three in particular was in decent numbers going in at half time.

Defence

Whatever about the coaches - the players from both teams during the week have primarily been talking about their oppositions defence. Both Ireland and SA are very hard working, honest and organised in defence but there are differences and the key one benefits Ireland. South Africa have better line speed but are not as organised and are vulnerable to the types of skip and inside passes that Ireland excel at. Pretty much the entire Ireland backline have a good range of kicks (Hansen is even kicking cross fields) so I think we can keep the Springboks honest on our ball. Sexton will be threading a fine line playing flat enough to exploit the gaps but not so flat that he's vulnerable to losing or consistently losing heavy collisions.

Our defence might be just that little bit more cautious but I think we form better lines and maintain better cohesion as the line drifts which means whilst we're soaking a little more of the tackle we rarely offer up gaps and our tackle effectiveness seems quite good so we rarely notably have poorer gainline success than opposition teams. Having one or two shooters (in the likes of VDF and Ringrose) is offset by us generally accommodating those rushes as part of the structure. Typically line breaks and higher defenders beaten numbers happen against us when we're scrambling from a turnover, we rarely tend to cough up line breaks in or around mid field so we often look very comfortable playing without the ball.

Packs

Really is a big day for the forwards tomorrow. What does a good day look like? Parity in the set piece, a lower penalty count, good consistent ruck speed on attacking ball, consistently slower opposition ruck speed. A really good day we have notably higher turnovers and any dominance in the set piece, particularly if maintained for the most part would put us in very good condition for the rest of the tournament. James Ryan is the key player for me tomorrow, we have to have a clean breakdown game.

Outcome?

I don't know. I want to say 'like the France game from the six nations' but I'm not sure it will be. What South Africa are doing isn't completely unorthodox but it is unorthodox. We've all talked about teams holding things back before a World Cup but this would be a whopper of an example if it defined the tournament.

I just don't think it will. I think it's a gimmick, it's very Rassie and all the right commentators are taking the bait. Ireland don't seem to be and I think we'll play our game and if the 7:1 creates opportunities to exploit we'll take them.

Ireland by 8, I think Ireland have more to play for, I think South Africa are taking slight liberties with the bench.

If SA are unlucky that score could be worse but I'd worry about the physical toll on Ireland one way or another. It will be interesting to see how the bench is deployed and if SA are chasing the game if they'll empty the bench the same way or drip players in. Regardless of score - it will be a tough 80 minute game.

Alternate Reality

For about an hour last night the match thread was "Tom Clancy's: Jack Crowley". Rassie was looking to actually detonate a bombs at all the major clubs where he had players stationed and Crowley was only brought into the Ireland squad as a counter intelligence measure. Chrome crashed and I lost the text and decided not to re-write it because it was a bit shite tbh.