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"Green" policies are destroying this country

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  • Registered Users Posts: 29,397 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...energy prices are ultimately set by the price of gas at the wholesale rate, we clearly need to now move towards decoupling these prices, keep increasing taxes on fossil fuels, and ideally reduce the taxation on green supplies. unfortunately the owners of fossil fuel assets wont give up this without a serious fight, and will use all their resources, including their political resources, to maintain these benefits....



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    Who built it then? Elves?

    Viridian count as big business in my book.



  • Registered Users Posts: 596 ✭✭✭deholleboom


    The recent Sunak 'move' put into context.

    https://youtu.be/vEqQ8yZ9J3o?si=cnOz9X_Gjzgpmhwt



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,420 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    With 75 million euros in funding from the EU. And they then sold it for a profit to a Mutual who operate it at cost on behalf of the people of Northern Ireland



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    There's so much wrong with this, it's difficult to decide where to start.

    Energy prices are mainly set against the price of oil, not gas.

    Electricity prices are set by market conditions, cleared on a cheapest first basis against bids and offers. Typically, that's gas in Ireland but is occasionally (and becoming more frequently) wind.

    There are no significant additional taxes on green supplies, so how can they be reduced? They were only included as an afterthought in the recent windfall tax bill. Moreover, why should they be reduced, they are installed by "for profit" companies on a commercial basis. Why should they be given some special treatment in the market? Discrimination is not permitted under the market rules. Like it or not, that's the model we've got sincere moving away from vertically integrated semi-state developments.

    Furthermore, why increase the tax on fossil fuels, they are becoming the backup plant. Effectively we'll be paying for them to be there for the days that the renewables aren't. Save for a modest return on investment, they won't be making significant profits in the future, so why increase taxes on them? All you are doing is increasing the electricity prices for the end consumer since these taxes will also need to be recovered, which brings us back to gas setting the electricity price on the days the wind/solar isn't there.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 29,397 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...cause its clearly fcuking obvious, if we continue our use off fossil fuels, your kids, grand kids, nieces and nephews are fcuked, thats why! its clearly obvious that fossil fuel interests rule the roost here, and this once again has been proven during our recent energy crisis, with most fossil fuel producers showing record profits, whos getting fcuked here, all of us of course! so its time to start reducing their abilities to control markets, and taxation is one such method...

    ...so the logic is, lets completely fcuk up the future of your loved ones, just so these bias's are maintained, and ultimately only a few, primary fossil fuel asset owners can have their cake.....really!



  • Registered Users Posts: 572 ✭✭✭InAtFullBack


    The reason fossil fuels rule the roost is because they're reliable. The only green alternative that is as reliable is nuclear, but ho hey the 'greens' and their supporters are anti-nuclear unless it comes down a wire from England and soon France.

    If the 'greens' and their supporters were in any way interested in helping the 'ordinary man' they'd use some of this EUR10 billion excess we have this year to fund a national rooftop solar project for the entire country. Every suitable household, business premises, farm building, school, etc... should be mandated to have solar panels paid for in full by the state. The value of the power generated and sent back to the grid should then be recouped to pay for the program.

    But no, mark my words none of the above will happen - why, because there is no quick buck to be made from that, no CEO and C-Suite making off with millions in wages, expenses and bonuses. The Green Party are literally Fine Gael on bikes as they are happy with Big Wind and soon Big Solar making obscene profits.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,554 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    Didn't all energy providers show massive profits?

    What I can't understand is how people think that once renewable energy companies are top dog, that they won't start riding the general public in the same way as fossil fuel business do via restricting supply and all the rest? Ya'd imagine that the renewable companies are doing all the work out of the goodness of their heart. Once there's a tipping point (can't believe I brought that phrase up), Joe and Jane Public will be able to straighten up as fossil fuels withdraw only to turn around and bend over for the renewable crowd



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,048 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Not only is that scenario a literal impossibility at the moment since the grid is not equipped to receive that much rooftop solar, but also the industry in Ireland has not the capacity to forfill such a fantasy - the result would be massive price inflation by installers. How do we know this - because an already stretched solar industry is doing just that already. Domestic solar is subject to exactly the same market dynamics as any commodity.

    So if you have a practical achievable suggestion please make it. No one needs more fantasy solutions. If we want to use that surplus constructively then offshore wind and grid upgrades to receive it offer the best bang for buck.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,993 ✭✭✭✭JRant



    Used to enjoy watching this lad on nature programs but he's gone full retard lately. Listen to this clip and you can see the level of derangement and self righteousness on display in all it's glory.

    "It's okay to break the law because Climate..." And this is from a mainstream conservationist. Expect to see more of this type of messaging.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Just on solar, the elimination of VAT, inclusion in the reteofit/upgrade schemes, removal of planning permission etc have all gone towards an explosion in the numbers installing rooftop solar. Last update was around 60,000 homes had it (Jun)

    That's before even looking at the various other schemes for farmers, micro generation, commercial rooftop (supermarket, factories etc) and so on.

    Keep in mind we also only presently have 8 commercial solar farms connected to the grid. There are 119 more planned

    Loads more to come in the realm of solar for Ireland over the next few years



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    I don't have kids. While I'm not 100% bought into the green dystopia, my wife and I didn't see the point in contributing further to global overcrowding. We do our but where we can. We just help other less fortunate kids instead.

    Anyway, if this is your best retort after having your previous post dissected and disproven, then I despair. Not a valid argument in any of your rants apart from "won't someone think of the children".



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,420 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Solar and Wind is coming and the thermal generation plants will face significant problems staying profitable

    Within the next decade many thermal plants will start going offline and there will be some capacity kept on retainer for emergency backup.

    Australia is a few years ahead and they have ideal conditions for Solar, but the same principle will apply to much of southern Europe

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-23/rooftop-solar-cannibalising-australian-power-market/102889710

    And Wind power will do similar around these parts (although much less domestic generation of wind)



  • Registered Users Posts: 596 ✭✭✭deholleboom


    Same here. Probably watching the same program. It seems you cannot watch any recent nature/weather/climate program without getting 'the message' shoved in yr face.

    The other thing i have noticed: the huge 'understanding' of anything Extinction Rebellion does while at the same time warning others about 'far right conspiracy theorists' in regards to protests against the state. The same binary thinking we see on so many levels..



  • Registered Users Posts: 572 ✭✭✭InAtFullBack


    Your dismissal of such a proposal only cements my view that a big cohort of the green movement are firmly in the pockets of big green industry where making a killing in profits over-rides saving the planet. A country mile from the communist leaning original ideals by the greens of the 60s and 70s, at least with those you knew what you were getting.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,048 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Oh give over.

    I haven't taken the shilling of a single Green body, I do everything DIY. It's pointless entertaining things that at least at the moment are impossible.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,055 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Taxation as a tool of reducing prices and reducing ability to control market?

    You cant be serious.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,380 ✭✭✭✭ednwireland


    I've always said this you don't get to pick and choose laws you obey (bit like the just stop oil protesters blocking public highways , should be dragged off and arrested) Chris packham should have all his TV contracts cancelled over this.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,211 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    Laws are often wrong though. Apartheid etc. People think continuing using fossil fuels is destroying their children's future, of course they'll have no problem breaking laws in protest.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,607 ✭✭✭ps200306



    ...cause its clearly fcuking obvious, if we continue our use off fossil fuels, your kids, grand kids, nieces and nephews are fcuked, thats why!

    I challenge you to produce scientific evidence for that among the official IPCC reports. I don't mean in the summaries which the media then spin into predictions of climate disaster. I mean in the actual science itself. There is nothing in there that says your kids and grandkids are fk'd.

    its clearly obvious that fossil fuel interests rule the roost here, and this once again has been proven during our recent energy crisis, with most fossil fuel producers showing record profits, whos getting fcuked here, all of us of course! so its time to start reducing their abilities to control markets, and taxation is one such method...

    It's quite amazing how those oil producers voluntarily reduced their prices in 2014-16 from over $100/barrel to under $50. You have to admit it was generous of them, seeing as how they control the markets and all that.

    Or could it be something else? Such as increasing demand and under-investment in supply? It would take you all of one minute of Googling to find out. Oil demand has continued its inexorable climb for decade after decade. Around the turn of the millennium when I first took an interest it was 70m bbl/day. Peak Oilers were predicting that we would top out out 85 mbbl/day in 2005 and never exceed that. We hit 100 mbbl/day in 2018. After a dip caused by the pandemic some were predicting we had hit peak demand and would never reach pre-pandemic levels again. We did that at the end of 2022. This year demand is up 2.2 mbbl/day, to over 102 mbbl/day. That's why I laugh when people post on this thread that "fossil fuels are dead". It's even funnier when they claim oil producers are price-gouging. It shows a total lack of understanding about how prices are set.

    Every year, existing fields decline by 6 mbbl/day. That's how much new oil we need to develop every year just to stand still, at a cost of about half a trillion dollars per year in new investment. Since investment is harder to come by in OECD countries due to Green policies, we are now more easily held over a barrel by state producers like the Saudis and Russians. They have been holding oil off the market, ostensibly because of the anticipation of weakening demand. But the consequent run-up in prices doesn't hurt them. Right now there is over a million barrels per day of shortfall between supply and demand. Prices are heading for $100/bbl for the first time since 2014.

    So you reckon we can get oil prices down by taxation? Who are you going to tax? The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia? If you tax western oil producers you are just going to reduce investment and store up even higher prices for the future. And that's going to be quite a problem when it turns out that looney Green policies don't reduce our demand for the stuff whatsoever. The reason why oil demand is so inelastic in the face of supply shortfalls -- and therefore why prices run up so quickly -- is that we cannot sever our dependence. People will pay whatever it costs to keep their cars and their heating running. Green policies are leading us to a double disaster -- failing to wean us off fossils by betting on unworkable unaffordable technologies, and hiking the prices of fossils through unfriendly policies.

    Post edited by ps200306 on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 22,420 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    I challenge you to find the words 'you're fucked' in the lab report from a biopsy of a terminal brain tumour

    The Doctor will translate the numbers into a diagnosis when sitting you down to break the news to you that you're terminal.

    That's what the SPM basically is. And no it's not biased towards catastrophic language, it's actually restrained by the fact that oil producing countries routinely veto the most sobering language and water down the urgency to take action.

    1.5c had been the limit for 'safe' warming since Kyoto. We've most likely reached that level this year. The consequences get progressively worse from here



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,554 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    oil producing countries routinely veto the most sobering language

    They do that in the summary which is what is presented and reported on. Ya know all those late night discussions between people and politicians and whoever about including words or not including words in summaries. The actual IPCC reports themselves aren't as biased to one side or the other



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,420 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Yeah, the IPCC reports are more clinical, and more than a thousand pages long for each working group

    The SPM is intended to take those findings and translate them into the headline take-away findings that are most relevant for the rest of us to make up our mind about how serious this problem is, and what we should do to solve it

    The implication from the global warming 'skeptics' is that the SPM is overly alarmist, when in fact it's the opposite. The SPM suffers from political interference from the Oil producing countries who are very reluctant to sign off on any statements that place the blame on Oil and gas or call for any actions where the solution to climate change is to immediately decarbonise as quickly as we can.

    To use an analogy

    Lets say I go for a check-up at my GP and my bloods are taken

    When I go back to get the results, the blood tests are basically a series of numbers and measurements that make no sense to me because I'm not trained to know what healthy blood tests should look like

    Instead of the doctor using their experience and training to interpret the results and talk to me about my health, and lifestyle and weight etc, the doctor has to pass the results to someone from the Vintners association for sign-off, where they get to read my 'deranged' liver function test results and tell the doctor that they can't advise me to cut down on drinking, and instead need to emphasise that there could be any number of causes for those results and that I need to go for further tests to rule those out before taking any preventative action.

    The SPM never gets more alarmist from political interference, it gets watered down as special interest groups veto some findings that they feel harm their interests.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,554 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    Yer last line was spot on. I recall on this very thread it being discussed about lines being taken out of paragraphs in the reports and stitched together in the SPM to make things look worse than they are



  • Registered Users Posts: 568 ✭✭✭72sheep


    If this is the best the IT can do to scare us then LOL. There's no climate crisis until ALL the private jets are grounded. We're not all in this together until we're all in the public airports together :-)

    https://www.irishtimes.com/environment/2023/09/24/air-pollution-linked-to-premature-deaths-at-concerning-level-in-urban-areas-report-finds/



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,554 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    I wonder did the move to CO2 car taxation increase these pollutants?

    Anyway, to help the people of Dublin in their cars should consider culling some cows. That's bound to help



  • Registered Users Posts: 596 ✭✭✭deholleboom


    Kudos for putting up your high quality posts. It takes time and effort to make them so concise. You usually say it better than i possibly could. Thanks, probably on behalf of quite a view posters here..



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,211 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    are cows normally allowed live into old age and die in their sleep or something, do they not get culled anyway?

    regardless, the air quality can often be far worse in places like donegal and wexford than in dublin, so if you think killing your cows will help your rural brethren maybe give it a go!



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,607 ✭✭✭ps200306


    Fortunately I've been tracking oil and gas production for over 20 years now, so I tend to have those numbers pretty close to my finger tips. Only reductions in fossil fuel usage will lead to emissions reductions. The planet and its atmosphere don't care how much renewables are deployed if they are not even keeping up with energy demand increases. Greens seem ideologically wedded to wind and solar deployments without caring about the bigger picture. Their repudiation of nuclear is an inexplicable own goal. Yes, it's painfully expensive, but that's a surmountable problem that we could be tackling instead of just moaning about it like the Greens do. It is one of the few low carbon options that can address baseload supply as well as process heat and district heating. (There are others like the Allam cycle, but anything that involves nuclear or continued fossil usage is off the menu for Greens, even if they are zero carbon).

    Everyone should care about this because we are eventually going to have to deal with diminishing fossil fuel supplies, even apart from the very real emissions problem. At that point we really will have an existential problem, just not the one the Greens are imagining.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,607 ✭✭✭ps200306


    I challenge you to find the words 'you're fucked' in the lab report from a biopsy of a terminal brain tumour. The Doctor will translate the numbers into a diagnosis when sitting you down to break the news to you that you're terminal.

    Obviously I am not looking for those literal words in any part of AR6, including the SPM. I am suggesting that such an implication (let's call it an "existential crisis" rather than using the f-word) is not carried anywhere in the IPCC summary of the science.

    That's what the SPM basically is. And no it's not biased towards catastrophic language, it's actually restrained by the fact that oil producing countries routinely veto the most sobering language and water down the urgency to take action.

    I'm not that interested in the political vagaries. Even the SPM is not what makes it into the news headlines. Those are driven by people like Chief Doom Monger Gutteres who blathers on about "global boiling", "millions of people in imminent danger", and "code red for humanity". None of those appear in any part of AR6 including the SPM. The man is an irresponsible fool.

    There are some curious differences in tone between the output of Working Group 1 who summarise the science, and Working Group 2 who write on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. But that is by the by. Table 12.12 from Chapter 12 of the report is the best single page summary of WG1's output (and yes, there is vastly more detail to be had especially on more regional focuses, and I've read plenty of it but can't assume anyone else here will).

    I see no sign of an existential crisis in there and -- I can't stress this enough -- Chapter 12 widely employs the implausible RCP8.5 or SSP5-8.5 scenarios. What you read there is almost certainly worse than the worst case. (Yes, it ignores "tipping points". The IPCC has a statement on why they consider crossing tipping point thresholds to be unlikely in the 21st century. You can check that with them rather than me).

    1.5c had been the limit for 'safe' warming since Kyoto. We've most likely reached that level this year. The consequences get progressively worse from here.

    The consequences are worse for any rise, at any level. 1.5C was always a political target and nothing to do with the science. It was emphasised by small island nations and adopted for a time, even though most scientists expressed the view that it was unrealistic. It got shoehorned into models that employed increasing amounts of negative emissions technologies (NETs) in order to come up with the "right" answer:

    “This [tailoring of science to meet political demand] reveals an empirical example of ‘calibrating’ the model analysis in view of relevance: despite the personal conviction of realism of some of the modellers at the time, modelling efforts were redirected from exploring 2 °C pathways to those limiting warming to 1.5 °C. The alternative would have been to say that the 1.5 °C goal was infeasible according to modelling results. However, this would disregard small island states (interview 5, IPCC co-chair). In fact, if the IPCC would have concluded that the 1.5 °C was unrealistic, Paris negotiators might even have had to go back to the negotiation table (interview 22, COP21 negotiator). On the other hand, the shift from 2 °C to 1.5 °C implied faster emissions reduction, in which the rapidly appearing 1.5 °C scenario literature relied on NETs to an even more significant degree (interview 2,3,6,15). As explained by one modeller: “I am not more confident that we can reach it, but I am more confident that we can model it. […] we would never have to say it would not be achievable, we just put more negative emissions in” (interview 18).”

    (Van Beek et al. (2022) "Navigating the political: An analysis of political calibration of integrated assessment modelling in light of the 1.5 °C goal", Environmental Science & Policy, Volume 133, July 2022, Pages 193-202.)

    Even the IPCC's 2018 "Special Report on 1.5°C" says that we would exceed that target if all emissions stopped immediately, though temperatures could come back under the limit after a period of overshoot with appropriate deployment of NETs.

    So the idea we are heading to hell in a handbasket after exceeding 1.5°C is just more unsubstantiated palaver. In fact, the 2°C limit is equally arbitrary. It came out of a 1995 statement by the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) which plucked the limits of "tolerable temperature" as between the low temperatures of the last glacial maximum and the high temperatures of the last inter-glacial. They got these from an obscure 1987 book by Etling and Hantel entitled Klimatologie, Teil 1. The difference between the pre-industrial global average and the last interglacial high was 2°C. That's where that came from.

    This has been very longwinded. The bottom line is that there are no forecasts of an existential crisis is any IPCC report.



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