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Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

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    #27692
    Dubinusa
    Registered Users Posts: 8,561 ✭✭✭Dubinusa


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121150787#Comment_121150787

    Indeed. He's been great! Murray too has built up a head of steam. Best he's played in years.



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    #27693
    Hippo
    Registered Users Posts: 1,879 ✭✭✭Hippo


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121150483#Comment_121150483

    JGP remains miles faster to the breakdown than Murray, which is why he starts. As you say, he's still first choice.



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    #27694
    Must love hardship
    Registered Users Posts: 1,194 ✭✭✭Must love hardship


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121152135#Comment_121152135

    Jgp missed twice as many tackles as he made last night. 4 missed tackles and only mase 2 and kicked poorly too.



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    #27695
    aloooof
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,597 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121152135#Comment_121152135

    And that can be true while Murray can still have been better last night.

    Murray’s been great for Ireland over the last 9 months or so.



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    #27696
    AbusesToilets
    Registered Users Posts: 10,446 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121152260#Comment_121152260

    Thankfully tackles aren't the main thing SHs are evaluated on.



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    #27697
    aloooof
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,597 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121152324#Comment_121152324

    And speed to the ruck isn't the only thing. (Fwiw, I thought it was one of JGP's more hesitant games when we had possession).

    You'd be forgiven for thinking Murray was sh*t when he still attracts comments like this... When the exact reverse is true.



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    #27698
    gameoverdude
    Registered Users Posts: 6,317 ✭✭✭gameoverdude


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121152368#Comment_121152368

    I thought he was done 18 months ago and I'm so glad I was wrong. Playing great stuff.

    JGP is still first choice in my opinion though.



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    #27699
    TRC10
    Registered Users Posts: 3,941 ✭✭✭TRC10


    Firing Warren Gatland was the worst decision ever made by the IRFU. We'd without doubt have made a final in the Eddie/Kidney years if we had Gatland instead.



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    #27700
    phog
    Registered Users Posts: 24,314 ✭✭✭✭phog


    Aki is Ireland's player of the tournament so far, he's been excellent for us.



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    #27701
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121152558#Comment_121152558

    He has never made a final. Also there were multiple well attested reasons why he was let go. Maybe it allowed him to become a better coach.


    Also Wales are just benefitting from an absolutely terrible pool and some questionable reffing. They're still not good.



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    #27702
    dublin49
    Registered Users Posts: 1,378 ✭✭✭dublin49


    hard to believe we win 2 bonus point matches ,and beat the world num 1 team and an 8 point loss will put us out. Scotland have a sluggers chance now ,a red card could cost us dearly,the group of death definitely living up to its name.



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    #27703
    Dave_The_Sheep
    Registered Users Posts: 7,379 ✭✭✭Dave_The_Sheep


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121149818#Comment_121149818

    Big Wheel of Time fan, maybe.


    (I actually made this mistake for two decades of result those maybe a dozen times).



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    #27704
    Mr Disco
    Registered Users Posts: 628 ✭✭✭Mr Disco


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153091#Comment_121153091

    How did we beat the world No 1 team when we are the world no 1 team



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    #27705
    Jump_In_Jack
    Registered Users Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭Jump_In_Jack


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153091#Comment_121153091

    That’s only if Ireland don’t score 4 tries.

    We can sore 4 tries and lose by more than 7 and that’ll bring it to points difference I believe, and Scotland have yet to play Romania and South Africa have yet to get a bonus point win over Tonga.

    Still potentially some twists to come before we play Scotland.

    South Africa aren’t safe yet either.



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    #27706
    Hermy
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 11,383 Mod ✭✭✭✭Hermy


    I thought it was one of JGP's more hesitant games when we had possession.

    Can anyone tell me why this was so?

    JGP's passes are usually so fast.

    Was it all SA pressure or was he deliberately delaying passes in anticipation of the SA threat?

    Genealogy Forum Mod



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    #27707
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,505 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153308#Comment_121153308

    The team was playing a more kicking centred game than JGP would like I suppose. JGP can of course kick with the rest of em, but what makes him special is the quick ball out of the ruck again and again, and he didnt really have the opportunity to do that against South Africa



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    #27708
    aloooof
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,597 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153308#Comment_121153308

    Bit of both, I'd say. We saw Faf get really close to an intercept early on. One of those and they could be under the posts. Marry that with their linespeed, giving JGP much less time to make a decision, and cutting off options quicker.

    It's encouraging tho that in terms of ball-in-play time, and our ruck speed, SA will have gotten close to exactly what they wanted vs us but we still managed to win.



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    #27709
    KaneToad
    Registered Users Posts: 3,353 ✭✭✭KaneToad


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153251#Comment_121153251

    Don't think that's right. Unless Scotland manage to beat us by more than 7 and don't score 4 tries themselves - which is less likely (but not impossible) if we've already scored 4 tries against them.

    If Scotland & SA get max 5 points v's Romania & Tonga:

    Scenario 1- Scotland beat Ireland by 8 points. Scotland get 4 points and Ireland get zero. Scotland move to 14 tournament points and Ireland remain on 14 tournament points. Scotland qualify & Ireland out due to head to head result.

    Scenario 2 - Scotland beat Ireland by 8 points and score 4 tries. Scotland get 5 points and Ireland get zero. Scotland move to 15 tournament points and Ireland remain on 14 tournament points. Scotland qualify & Ireland out.

    Scenario 3 - Scotland score 4 tries and beat Ireland (who score 3 tries or fewer). Ireland within 4 points at full time. Scotland get 5 points and Ireland get 1 point. Scotland move to 15 tournament points and Ireland move to 15 tournament points. Scotland qualify & Ireland out due to head to head result.

    Scenario 4 - Scotland beat Ireland (scoring 3 tries) Ireland (scoring 2 tries) within 4 points at full time. Scotland get 4 points and Ireland get 1 point. Scotland move to 14 tournament points and Ireland move to 15 tournament points. Scotland out & Ireland progress.

    Scenario 5 - Scotland beat Ireland by more than 7 but Ireland score 4 tries. Ireland get a try BP but no losing BP. The chances of us scoring 4 tries and losing to an opponent who scores fewer tries is unlikely (but not impossible!). More likely is that Scotland will also get 4 try BP. Therefore Scotland get 5 points and move to 15 tournament points and Ireland gets 1 point and also move to 15 tournament points. Scotland qualify & Ireland out due to head to head result.

    Etc, etc...



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    #27710
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,505 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    In terms of the team vs Scotland, I think this is the first week where Farrell will have to make some strategic choices. Playing the best available team against Romania, Tonga and South Africa made sense in the context of building up the team. They need to play together and build cohesion and get into the spirit of the competition, and doing this outweighs the risk of injuries and the benefits of giving the squad players a game.

    Obviously Scotland have to be beaten, the first team needs to build momentum and they don't want to jinx anything. But I wonder has the dynamic tilted a bit more towards some changes etc.

    With that in mind, I think it's going to be largely the same team vs Scotland as it was vs South Africa. Dan Sheehan might start instead of Kelleher, but that makes sense as, without his injury, Sheehan would probably have started all three matches. Henderson might start at 4, with Beirne/Baird at 6 and POM being rested. I think Jimmy O'Brien might get the no. 23 jersey to give him a game - his versatility will become very important later in the competition if we see any injuries.

    I think the main concession to rotating players and avoiding injuries is that if Ireland are up 28 points at half time and Scotland look demoralised, he might take Johnny Sexton and the two props off at 40 and then empty the rest of the bench at 50.

    However, that's all not that much fun and I'd like to see McCloskey, Bealham and McCarthy start with O'Toole and Loughman on the bench. I'd also like to see Ross Byrne at 22 but sure you can't have everything!



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    #27711
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153582#Comment_121153582

    If we get to 15 points than we either are on 15 with one other team and both qualify or in a three way tie and head to heads are not relevant.



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    #27712
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153590#Comment_121153590

    I don't think we'll rotate a whole lot.

    By the time we play Scotland, we'll be on 14 points, with 2 bonus points and with a PD of +122

    Scotland will be on 10 points with 2 bonus points and an indeterminate PD. Currently their PD is +13 so to catch Ireland they would need to beat Romania by 109 points. Honestly, this is achievable but very unlikely. The minnow's often don't improve as the tournament progresses, they get injuries and fatigue and fed up being steamrolled so a big PD for Scotland is likely, but probably not 100+. South Africa will get 5 points from their final game and an indeterminate amount of points but probably a heap.

    Any Ireland win - Ireland qualify.

    Scotland win with no BP - Points Difference (Scotland need 109 - margin of victory against Ireland)

    Scotland win Ireland 2 BP - Ireland qualify

    Scotland win Ireland 1 BP - Ireland qualify

    Scotland win 1 BP Ireland 2 BP - Ireland qualify

    Scotland win with BP Ireland with BP Points Difference (Scotland need 109 - margin of victor against Ireland)

    Scotland BP Win Ireland no BP Loss = Scotland progress

    It's almost certain that Scotland's points difference is going to be a good bit behind Ireland going into the final. I suspect optimistically around 30 but I think it will be more. If that's the case then they need a BP win and to deny us a BP.

    If we score one or two tries early the game is effectively over and if at any point we get the BP then it is over. If we have 3 tries at half time we can bring on the bench at the start of the second half.

    Scotland have absolutely no reason to be optimistic about this game. As soon as they lost like that against SA their World Cup was over and if they didn't know it at the time they've known it since Saturday.



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    #27713
    pickarooney
    Moderators, Arts Moderators Posts: 35,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭pickarooney


    There's no conceivable way South Africa don't qualify, right?



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    #27714
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,589 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153766#Comment_121153766

    not getting 5 points against tonga is the only way they're not guaranteed.



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    #27715
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153766#Comment_121153766
    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153796#Comment_121153796

    Yeah not getting 5 or equally as unlikely if Scotland manage to overhaul the points difference that opens up some different options. Conceivably all three teams could finish on 15 with SA having the lowest points difference and not progressing.



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    #27716
    Cookiemunster
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Cookiemunster


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153766#Comment_121153766

    If they dont beat Tonga and Scotland win they're out.

    If they beat Tonga without a BP, Scotland beat us with a BP, they're out.

    And it they beat Tonga without a BP and Scotland beat us with nether team getting a BP, all three would finish on 14 pts and it would go to points diff.

    But they'll batter Tonga.



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    #27717
    crusd
    Registered Users Posts: 1,237 ✭✭✭crusd


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153582#Comment_121153582

    Assuming Scotland get BP vs Romania and SA Vs Tonga, Any scenario where Ireland get a BP means we end up on 15 points. If Scotland get the win and no bonus points, Ireland top group on head to head vs South Africa, If Scotland get the win with Bonus, its a 3-way tie decided by points difference. If Scotland were to beat Ireland by 7 for example, they would need to beat Romania by 96 to go ahead of us. SA would need to beat Tonga by 30 to go ahead of us.



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    #27718
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153737#Comment_121153737

    Scotland win with no BP - Points Difference (Scotland need 109 - margin of victory against Ireland)

    With SA almost certain to get to 15, this scenario would most likely leave us going out on H2H

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


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    #27719
    pickarooney
    Moderators, Arts Moderators Posts: 35,460 Mod ✭✭✭✭pickarooney


    image.png

    o_O



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    #27720
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153897#Comment_121153897

    Actually yes you are correct.



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    #27721
    Jump_In_Jack
    Registered Users Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭Jump_In_Jack


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121153582#Comment_121153582

    If Scotland, Ireland and South Africa all end up on 15 it would be decided by points difference, and Scotland have Romania to play, so could conceivably make up a lot of the points difference, and also if they beat us by 8, that means we lose 8 in our points difference too.

    My point was, the poster said if we lose by 8 points we're out, and I responded saying not in all cases. A try bonus point would make a difference.

    South Africa, Scotland and Ireland are all still fighting for qualification, and we will have the benefit of knowing what we need to get going into the last match, so will Scotland of course.



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