Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

That's a great idea. Or another one:

Declare property uninhabitable?

Property will be CPOd:

at 100% of market rate in 6 months,

80% of market rate in 12 months

60% of market rate in 18 months

40% of market rate in 24 months

20% of market rate in 30 months

0% of market rate in 36 months. (You forfeit the property)

The problem is trivial to solve. EZPZ.

But homeowners are enriched by dereliction. And under 30s don't vote in significant numbers so they don't count.

Terrible idea, infringes on all manner of property rights.

Just enforce the taxes we have right now for vacant sites and units - maybe move the collection to revenue instead of local councils who seem to deliberately try not to collect these fines.

It would be possible yes.

Very hard to get receipts issued for work done years ago. I insulated a house to a very high degree back in the 1990's.

4'' if rockwool in wall cavities, and dry lined inside with an insulated plasterboard. I used a higher quality insulation under the floor as well. There is not a hope of getting the invoices reissued( at least one of the suppliers are gone bust). If it was BER accessed today it would be accessed to the standard build insulation of back then. There is no workaround.

The much talked about exodus of Irish due to the housing crisis doesn’t seem to be materialising. Irish exiting almost perfectly offset by Irish returning home.

Population materially increasing on back of record post Celtic Tiger immigration, as expected. 98k increase in population last 12 months. Fair few extra houses will be needed!

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2023/keyfindings/

The taxes we have and what's proposed will not be a deterrent even if everyone pays them

Compare a vacant home worth 300k with a deposit account of 300k paying 3%

The vacant home will pay 3 times the standard property tax which will be 1500 per year

The 300k deposit account @ 3% will pay 9000 which will be taxed at 33% giving a tax bill of 3000

So a person who has excess cash and puts it in a bank to be redistributed to those that need it to drive the economy forward is taxed twice what the person that is willfully denying a much needed asset to the economy

The vacancy tax is a spit in the face of tenants paying nosebleed rents across the country by the government

With an average household size of 2.74 as of last year in Ireland (and thats decreasing each year) that population increase would require 35,767 new housing units having been built in 2022 just to house them.

Which means just to stand still, nevermind replace any older housing stock, and nevermind alleviating/fixing the housing crisis, we'd need to be building that number. When in reality we completed only 29,851 units in 2022.

Its not being talked about anywhere in the media that I've seen but our population increasing by approx 100k a year in 2021, 2022 and looking like in 2023 is just completley unsustainable for the housing market with our current construction rate.

The government's press releases can say what they want, but the numbers don't lie - the housing market is actually getting worse, not better, currently, when you consider our very relevant population growth.

In the case of the deposit account the tax is owed on interest accrued. For house owner the tax is on value of the property.

They are two fundamentally different scenarios

horrible looking building being bought and repurposed at a premium by the state... lolz

I'm open to correction but would this stat show exactly that people are leaving because of the housing situation. People leaving for higher wages, lower rents or even any form of accomodation.

The total inflows are highly affected by Ukraine and the UK's immagration stance. This will result in an increase in our youth leaving

Australia and Canada might be yesterday's trend as it was traditionally mining, building, nursing, police, teaching, engineering etc

Today's trend might well be the middle east.

My point relates to the demographic leaving, is it our youth that are leaving and those that have earned enough to tackle the property ladder that are returning,

rent affordability affects new entrants the most, so leaving may well be an easy decision for them

84% of Irish nationals left to go to the EU/UK/US/Canada/Australia. The entire rest of the planet, including the Middle-East, only took 16%. Today's trend is very much not the Middle East, people are leaving Ireland to go to the same places they always have.

The demographic trends are the same as they have been for 20 odd years since the Celtic Tiger made us wealthy - the vast majority of Irish people leave in their 20s for 1-5 years, then come home.

The reason more aren't leaving, and those that do leave mostly return quickly, is because the property markets in most of the main Irish emmigrant destinations are as bad or worse than in Ireland these days. London, Vancouver, Sydney, New York etc are some of the worst places on the planet for rental housing affordability.

Its completely true. This government very clearly wants a slow, steady increase in housing prices.

The government's big problem with the housing market from an electoral point of view though is rental prices. They want house prices to keep going up for both the vested interests, and for home owners - who most of the FF & FG vote base are. But the problem is rental prices being out of control, which hits young middle class people in their 20s and 30s.

This results in a double whammy of forcing people to live at home / damage the lives of older FF&FG voters, and reducing/greatly delaying the numbers of people in their 30s becoming home owners (ie, FF/FG voters who want house prices to keep increasing). Both of which are driving votes to opposition parties in large numbers now.

During the Celtic Tiger we had steadily increasing house prices, but rental prices were largely low/stable, so it wasn't an issue.

The biggest mistake was not restarting a social housing building program in the mid 2010s, a choice made purely for ideological reasons. The funding, the capacity, and the need were all there. If the 60,000 households we have now on HAP as a result were in social housing instead of in the private rental market it'd make a huge difference.

True that a lack of social housing programme is a main driver.

But the other major factor is population growth.

30k homes were built last year and similar number will be built again this year.

Yes. this number should be higher, but its still a pretty good return.

Realistically, how many homes could be delivered per year, given our planning system, building industry capacity and all other factors?

In other words, whats a realistic capacity for new home building annually if we threw all resource into it and shut down commercial construction. 40k, maybe 45k?

If thats the max number, its still going to tale a decade or so to catch up as our population is growing faster than can be accommodated.

5.3 million as of April.

Dublin over 1.5 million.

Both values now ever higher, as of September.

We only built 30,000 units last year, with a population of 5.2mn or so. In the mid 2000s, when we had a population of only 4.1mn, we hit 90,000 units a year.

It wouldn't be easy, and it would take a few years to ramp up to, but we could be building 100k+ units a year now if the political will was there.