Nagorno-Karabakh

Is it clear yet how far the Azerbaijanis have advanced? From what I understand the Armenians were pretty thoroughly defeated in the last war so it isn't really likely they can stop Azerbaijan by themselves.

Armenia is in such a poor position geopolitically. They are technically allied with Russia but Putin clearly doesn't like their president and I think the Armenians would like leave his camp if they could.

I'm afraid that ethnic cleansing you describe will indeed occur.

It might have the opposite effect ultimately as long as Azerbaijan don't cross Armenia's international border. The loss of Nagorno Karabakh/Artsakh would remove a frozen conflict and remove a lot of Russia's leverage over Armenia and Azerbaijan. Unfortunately I do expect it'll be a horrific outcome for the Armenians living in the region and I suspect the Azerbaijanis will cross Armenia's border to create a land bridge to their exclave.

Both went several years without investing much in defence budgets , Armenian was spending less than 300 million per year, until last year when they spent 700 million, Azerbaijanis have spent close to 7 billion over the last 3 years alone, realistically the biggest players in the region now are the Turks and Iranians ,both would be more than happy to sell either side hundreds of millions in weapons, while both hating each other,

Interesting times ahead

Turkey and Azerbaijan both want Armenia to be wiped off the map.

The Turks still deny the Armenian genocide, and are funneling arms to the Azeris, as are Israel but for different reasons. Israel are allied with Azerbaijan as a proxy against Iran. NW Iran has some Azerbaijani separatists who are causing havoc every now and then.

Armenia look set to lose out here though, they don't have the money or resources to protect themselves, and nobody else really cares enough to step in and protect them. Best case for Armenia is if Iran escalate against Azerbaijan to deny them the land corridor between their western enclave.

The Armenia that exists today is tiny in comparison with historic Armenia. Most Armenians used to live in what is now eastern Turkey. Some fled the 1915 genocide, but most were murdered or died on forced marches into the desert.

Even if NKB is legally part of Azerbeijan, that's no excuse to allow another round of ethnic cleansing.

Its shameful that governments arent doing anything.

An Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan is on the point of starvation (economist.com)

Aliyev gets his Sudetenland.

My concern would be future desire by the Azeris on a land bridge to their enclave, as others have touched on. They seemingly achieved their goal this time with about twenty four hours of fighting. The last major flare up was 2020. Half a decade down the line when attention has gone elsewhere, will they try for that?

Part of it is to do with various territorial disputes in the past. Also there are considerable links, particularly at the military level, between Israel and Azerbaijan. The old proverb the enemy of my enemy...

Looks like Aliyev's taking lessons from the orcs.

https://twitter.com/CSI_humanrights/status/1704860465220722998

The 120,000 Artsakh Armenians are set to flee to Armenia.

On one hand, I'm sort of relieved that threats of Azeri rape & death squads running rampant haven't come to pass, but on the other hand, 120,000 people have been made homeless.