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Storm Agnes Wed 27 Sept 2023.

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    #212
    Dazler97
    Registered Users Posts: 2,543 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121156684#Comment_121156684

    They do my bad :/



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    #213
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121156588#Comment_121156588

    Storm\Hurricane Debbie hit Ireland on 16 September 1961 and killed 18 people – 12 in the Republic of Ireland and 6 in Northern Ireland. It caused £70–80 million in damage in the Republic and at least £10.5 million in Northern Ireland. The storm winds in excess of 120 mph (200 km/h).

    Wikipedia



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    #214
    Dazler97
    Registered Users Posts: 2,543 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121156693#Comment_121156693

    The worst thing about that is he said his friend was in florida at the time and a hurricane was gonna hit there but he thought it would he funny to say what he said ,obviously models weren't as good as now but even with Agnes there's still alot of uncertainty about the exact track



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    #215
    Chris_5339762
    Registered Users Posts: 5,902 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    I think -

    • Cork, Kerry, Waterford, maybe Wexford Orange
    • Red sea warning

    I don't think the maximums warrent red anywhere.


    Remember, according to Met Eireann

    Orange = Widespread mean speeds between 65 and 80km/h, Widespread gusts between 110 and 130km/h

    Red = Widespread mean speeds in excess of 80km/h, Widespread gusts in excess of 130km/h


    Apart from the hoolys of runs from ICON, nothing to me suggests red will happen. Sea warnings are different, I don't really look at those.



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    #216
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,953 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121156764#Comment_121156764

    Your right, but remember Cork and Waterford are right on the coast so a red marine warning is more or less saying both cities will get hit. I do agree a high level orange is best guide for now!



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    #217
    Cork2021
    Registered Users Posts: 2,300 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Anyone else thing the rainfall totals are in orange/Red territory for cork??



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    #218
    Chris_5339762
    Registered Users Posts: 5,902 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    Orange I'd say.



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    #219
    Dazler97
    Registered Users Posts: 2,543 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    Here is the wind speeds and rainfall that meets the warnings down below, thought this would help

    Screenshot_20230925_214544_Chrome.jpg
    Screenshot_20230925_214558_Chrome.jpg
    Screenshot_20230925_214617_Chrome.jpg




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    #220
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,953 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    So the Icon 18z is just out.

    It's deeper, further North & less of a rounded centre. An upgrade without doubt. If these little upgrades continue in the morning it's going to be quite a storm!! The beeb Met guys must have being expecting this to say they were out the traps early



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    #221
    adocholiday
    Registered Users Posts: 1,901 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    Some strong gusts for the east coast in some of those forecasts. There are no official weather stations between Dublin and Johnstown Castle so I can only go by those numbers but since I moved here in 2018 the strongest gusts I experienced were during Storm Barra in December 2021 and they came in around 55kts in both locations. We lost power for 5 days and I spent quite a few weekends afterwards cutting up the fallen trees in the forest garden I have. If some of the forecast winds hit here (UKMO has 125km/h gusts for this location) I am expecting some significant damage to deal with on Thursday.



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    #222
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,977 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58



    Latest ICON which is quite good at rainfall predictions showing possibly getting 40 mm in less than 6 hrs I reckon which would take into Orange Warning level along some Southern counties.

    18Z a bit stronger inland, Clare and N Kerry looking stronger later in the day in latest runs.

    Untitled Image


    Untitled Image


    Untitled Image
    Untitled Image




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    #223
    Robwindstorm
    Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Robwindstorm


    It will be interesting to see will the center elongate or twin after rapidly deepening which could see the Eastern side of it provide very strong winds



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    #224
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,953 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The gfs run is exploding at 30hrs, much deeper than previous run. What it means next few frames not sure!!



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    #225
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,953 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    And at 48hrs it's basically hurricane force winds into the Southwest!! A major upgrade here with a much larger windfield aswell. If this is showing in the morning a red is likely across the South



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    #226
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,977 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    UKMO HD 18Z just runs to 19.00. Must say in times past UKMO would normally be maybe 5 or 10km/h over the actually gust speeds this far out, maybe more accurate on later runs tomorrow but nevertheless not to be discounted as looking very strong especially with the ECM following its well established track of a few days now.

    Very heavy rain being pushed ahead of the wind.

    UKMO still out in front, far windier than ECM , not even ICON is near it ! Will see, would think it will come down a bit tomorrow. Or will it 😀 ???


    modukmo2km_20230927_0600_animation (1).gif


    modukmo2km_20230927_0900_animation (1).gif


    modukmo2km_20230927_0900_animation.gif




    xx_model-en-328-0_modukmo2km_2023092518_42_4862_254.png


    xx_model-en-328-0_modukmo2km_2023092518_43_4877_254.png


    xx_model-en-328-0_modukmo2km_2023092518_45_4884_254.png
    xx_model-en-328-0_modukmo2km_2023092518_45_4864_254.png


    xx_model-en-328-0_modukmo2km_2023092518_47_4866_254.png


    modukmo2km_20230927_0600_animation.gif




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    #227
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,518 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Well we have a laid back song to play at the height of the storm; Angie Baby.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Phu0XExphtw




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    #228
    Dank Janniels
    Registered Users Posts: 654 ✭✭✭Dank Janniels


    I propose a motion to ban all Mrs.Brown memes!

    All in favour?



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    #229
    Cork2021
    Registered Users Posts: 2,300 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121157239#Comment_121157239

    AYE



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    #230
    Cork2021
    Registered Users Posts: 2,300 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Also if any mod would set up a technical thread for this?? If it goes off here we might not see the main contributors posts, ie meteorite and co…



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    #231
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,160 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Irish sea crossings will be bumpy Wednesday. Orange Marine warning just out

    Status Orange - Storm warning from Belfast Lough to Carnsore Point to Valentia and on the Irish Sea

    On Wednesday, Southeast winds, veering westerly will reach Storm Force 10 at times on Irish coastal waters from Belfast Lough to Carnsore Point to Valentia and on the Irish Sea.

    Valid: 09:00 Wednesday 27/09/2023 to 19:00 Wednesday 27/09/2023

    Issued: 23:01 Monday 25/09/2023



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    #232
    Dazler97
    Registered Users Posts: 2,543 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    Orange marine warnings issued for the east southeast and northeast, this to me gives me idea of the east in orange, parts of south, and I still stand by kerry ,Cork ,Waterford and even wexford possibly in red warnings going by current tracks ,infact I wouldn't be surprised to see 6 counties in a red but Agnes hasn't long formed and a weather bomb is on the way infact even a mega bomb that's I think deepens 36mb in 24 hours

    Screenshot_20230925_230529_Met ireann.jpg




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    #233
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,518 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121157249#Comment_121157249

    Sorry, didn't wish to derail.



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    #234
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,977 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Much deeper on this run getting down as low as 969hPa ( was 977 on the last run ) just off the coast .Less strong than the UKMO but still showing widespread gusting 90 km/h with swathes of gusts into 100/km/h. One thing about the GFS is that it never overdoes the wind readings. A very strong wind day by the looks of it taking in more of the country too, every where yellow at least.

    Very windy in the SW in the morning/ early afternoon

    xx_model-en-328-0_modusa_2023092518_38_949_149 (1).png


    Untitled Image
    Untitled Image




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    #235
    Cork2021
    Registered Users Posts: 2,300 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121157276#Comment_121157276

    Not at all,



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    #236
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121157224#Comment_121157224

    I like that.. and the Stones

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcZn2-bGXqQ&pp=ygUTYW5naWUgcm9sbGluZyBzdG9uZQ%3D%3D




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    #237
    Foggy Jew
    Registered Users Posts: 765 ✭✭✭Foggy Jew


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121157224#Comment_121157224

    Sorry. Not trying to be Pedantic Pat here, but that song is about Angie. This coming storm is Agnes. That doesn’t detract from the powerfullness of Helen Reddy’s Angie Baby.

    It's the bally ballyness of it that makes it all seem so bally bally.



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    #238
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121157332#Comment_121157332

    I posted another Angie. I suppose your right Angie would be closer to Angela. I see there are a few Agnes songs on youtube!



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    #239
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121157332#Comment_121157332

    Agnes does a lovely cover of 'It Must Have Been Love' with Per Gessle of Roxette. It won't allow playback here but you can check it out on youtube.

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


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    #240
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121157332#Comment_121157332

    'Living next door to Agnes...Agnes who the..' ok maybe not.



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    #241
    adocholiday
    Registered Users Posts: 1,901 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    One thing about the GFS run is the duration of it. Looking at 70-80km/h gusts from 10am to 10pm in Wicklow on the last run



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