Ireland v Scotland. Saturday 7th October. Stade DeFrance

PTH2009 · 26-09-2023 10:10pm

Everyone in the squad knows this but a loss knocking us out would be one of the worst results in our rugby history and Scotland have been massive joy kills in the past (Croke Park 2010 comes to mind)

It's going to be an exciting but long nervy 1.5 weeks

Akrasia · 27-09-2023 7:38am

If the Irish team don't approach this game as a must win knockout match against tier 1 opposition then we will lose.

Scotland are not the Jabronis people make them out to be. They have been fully focused on the Irish game since their defeat to SA in the opening weekend. This will be their world cup final and it could be incredibly physical.

Luckly they know this and seem to be taking the game very seriously

dave_o_brien · 27-09-2023 9:37am

Porter
Sheehan
Bealham
Beirne
Henderson
POM
JVDF
Conan
Murray
Sexton
Lowe
Aki
Henshaw
Hansen
Keenan
Kelleher
Kilcoyne
Furlong
Baird
McCarthy
JGP
Crowley
O'Brien

That's my guess. 6 changes including 4 additional B&I Lions & our 1st choice hooker back and given game time in what is likely to be a knockout match.

Mr Disco · 27-09-2023 11:17am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121162515#Comment_121162515

Ryan will be in the 23

twinytwo · 27-09-2023 12:01pm

Sending Scotland home would be a fine conclusion to POM's 100th cap.😅

( Or maybe we save it for sending NZ home)

Rigor Mortis · 27-09-2023 12:25pm

Porter
Sheehan
Bealham
Beirne
Henderson
POM
JVDF
Conan
Murray
Sexton
Lowe
Aki / McCloskey
Henshaw
Hansen
Keenan
Kelleher
Kilcoyne
O'Toole
Baird
McCarthy
JGP
Byrne
O'Brien

The McCloskey call would be dependent on how Aki is. Even allowing for the week off Aki has taken major punishment. The drop on current form to McCloskey is reasonably significant, but in a very experienced backline (including McCloskey himself) i think its doable.

dave_o_brien · 27-09-2023 12:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121163028#Comment_121163028

Very possibly. There's also the chance Doris goes to 6 and POM gets a rest. McCloskey at 12 too is a possibility.

And what's great is that none of those changes results in a poor team being fielded.

stephen_n · 27-09-2023 1:19pm

If any second row is rested, I’d imagine it will be Beirne. He has done the full 80 in all 3 games so far.

lawrencesummers · 27-09-2023 2:04pm

Conan starts for me with Doris on the bench, baird on the bench for POM / VDF. I would start henderson and rest Beirne but think thats also a bit of a risk, Beirne has played every game and has been vital so he might have to bench.

Henshaw starts as well with Bundee on the bench depending on ringrose after a bruising game last week.

Outside of that I dont see many changes, maybe craig casey gets the bench spot, maybe byrne is cover for sexton. Herring might get gametime

Jimmy o brien hasnt seen gametime yet or mccloskey so its hard to see them getting in at this stage.

Water John · 27-09-2023 2:08pm

Aki plays no question. Can replace him at 55 mins if things going ok.

aloooof · 27-09-2023 2:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121163992#Comment_121163992

Are Conan, JOB and McCloskey the only ones without gametime yet?

I think there’s a chance we might see one of the latter 2 in the 23 jersey.

lawrencesummers · 27-09-2023 2:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121164234#Comment_121164234

Tom o Toole?

Foxtrol · 27-09-2023 2:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121163992#Comment_121163992

Unless Earls has gotten ahead of JOB as utility back cover then they have to get JOB game time. Even if Earls is ahead of him now, given Earls' durability issues JOB still needs time.

The majority of the evidence we've seen for the last 2 years is that if there is an injury to any of the first choice 11-15 or 23 then JOB would at worst end up on the bench.

Maybe things have changed but I'd be surprised and somewhat worried if they have.

irelandrover · 27-09-2023 2:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121164432#Comment_121164432

I'm not sure how much we'll see JOB now. If a winger is injured, then Earls can come in easily enough. Farrell seems to trust him on the wing. If a centre gets injured, then Henshaw moves to start and McCloskey moves to the bench as Farrell seems to like a centre in the 23.

If Keenan gets injured, then I presume JOB would start but we aren't going to see Keenan dropped to give JOB gametime at this stage.

Sanjuro · 27-09-2023 2:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121164325#Comment_121164325

Played against Romania.

lawrencesummers · 27-09-2023 3:01pm

Whatever about JOB who has the age profile to see another world cup Mcloskey has done very well in the last few seasons to earn his place and it would be a disappointment for him not to see game-time.

But the world cup isnt won on sentiment

Mr Disco · 27-09-2023 3:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121164234#Comment_121164234

Not a hope. This will a an absolute must win game

blackwhite · 27-09-2023 3:54pm

This effectively a knock-out game, and the players and coaching staff will treat it as such.

Some of the talk amongst supporters has been akin to the Wales QF in 2011 - and Scotland 2023 are a superior team to Wales 2011 IMO (thankfully Ireland 2023 is superior to Ireland 2011 also!)

The margins between any tier 1 nation isn’t that big - it doesn’t take much of a drop-off to be caught out

AbusesToilets · 27-09-2023 3:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121164800#Comment_121164800

this Scottish team isn't a patch on the 2011 Welsh team. They were a Warburton red card away from the final. The Scots are the most overrated team in the world, we will dismantle them. Again.

blackwhite · 27-09-2023 4:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121164820#Comment_121164820

The red card cost them - but that was also against a French team that lost twice in the pool stages, and had lost to Italy in that year's 6N

penybont exile · 27-09-2023 4:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121164851#Comment_121164851

.... a Fench team that were only some dubious refereeing calls shy of winning the final.

Rootsblower · 27-09-2023 4:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121164800#Comment_121164800

i respectfully disagree with your point re the margins between tier 1 nations. Scotland are a useful side who can pose us some problems if not respected. Their players and coaching team are not to the standard that Ireland have. There’s no way South Africa/New Zealand would go into a game against this Scottish side and not expect to win. We need to start taking on that All Black mentality of supreme confidence in ourselves but not hubris. Watch the truly top sides the way they dismantle lesser teams with ruthless efficiency from the first to last minute of the game. Once they put the foot on the opposition throat they squeeze and squeeze. They suck the life out the opposition in an almost machine like manner.

Ireland are superior in all aspects of play to Scotland and if this Ireland team has true designs on the William Webb Ellis trophy then nothing less than a pummelling of Scotland will do. Not let up, no mercy, no foot off the gas after 60 mins if we are well ahead. It’s what the great teams do.

i don’t mean to disrespect to the Scots in this post whatsoever. They deserve our respect as all teams do.

ersatz · 27-09-2023 4:32pm

The coaches and players will treat this like any other must win game against a top opponent, as they should. Scotland have beaten England and France in the last few seasons. BUT it would be an epic and unprecedented face plant if they were to beat this Irish team and or knock them out. I couldn’t actually see this team recover from it.

aloooof · 27-09-2023 4:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121164432#Comment_121164432

The majority of the evidence we've seen for the last 2 years is that if there is an injury to any of the first choice 11-15 or 23 then JOB would at worst end up on the bench.

I don’t think that’s accurate tbh.

For starters, he only made his debut last November, and that was only when both Henshaw and McCloskey were injured.

I’d wager McCloskey’s been selected ahead of him at any point one of the first choice backs were injured, and both McCloskey and JOB have been available.

molloyjh · 27-09-2023 5:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121161402#Comment_121161402

That you have to go back over 13 years in itself says a lot. Scotland have only beaten us once in the last 10 years. The last time they beat us by more than 7 points was a 2007 RWC warm-up game. The last truly competitive game they beat us by more than 7 was the 2001 6Ns. The last time they scored 4 or more tries against us was 1999.

We are as good as we have ever been, in my lifetime at least. There really is no reason that we should fear Scotland. Respect them for what they are, sure. A good side with some good players. And good sides can step up and beat better sides on their day. But we shouldn’t fear them at all. As long as we’re close to our usual standard we should have too much for them.

Jump_In_Jack · 27-09-2023 5:32pm

I wouldn't complain too much if they picked the absolute best possible team for Scotland.

In my mind that's:

Porter, Sheehan, Furlong,

Beirne, Ryan,

O'Mahony, Doris, Van der Flier,

Gibson-Park, Sexton,

Lowe, Aki, Ringrose, Hansen,

Keenan.

Reps: Kelleher, Kilcoyne, Bealham, Henderson, Conan, Murray, Crowley, Henshaw.

Any deviations from that could probably be from the following in order of likeliness:

Starting Henshaw for one of the centres.

Starting Conan for O'Mahony, shifting Doris to 6.

Starting Henderson for Beirne.

Starting Bealham for Furlong.

Herring on the bench ahead of Kelleher.

Unfortunately as this match is practically a knockout now, I can't see any of the fringe players getting into the 23.

That's harsh on the likes of Herring, Baird, Byrne, McCloskey, Earls and O'Brien.

If Scotland don't make up the points difference against Romania, and if South Africa fail to get a a big score and a bonus point against Tonga, then the pressure would be off and selection could change a bit more. The thing is, in that case, I'd love to ask the players, like Sexton, Van der Flier, Ryan etc, given the choice would they prefer around 60 minutes against Scotland to prepare for the quarter final or would they prefer to avoid the risk of injury.

I still have my fingers crossed that South Africa have a blunder against Tonga to take some of the pressure off us, and that Italy have the match of their lives against New Zealand and we would end up with the possibility of playing Italy in the quarters!

Foxtrol · 27-09-2023 7:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121165126#Comment_121165126

Not sure where the lack of accuracy is.

When JOB got his first cap matters little in this. In the last 2 years the only players I can see who can rival the time JOB has gotten with Ireland in a similar utility/bench role are Conway and Earls.

Conway didn't make the plane and Earls didn't play for Ireland for a year and his game time has been 2 warm ups and Romania, where he was the back to be substituted, despite him being the least important back to keep fresh from a tournament perspective. Seemed to me much more of a nod to him getting another WC cap type selection than any confidence that he can handle knockout international rugby.

No idea why you're trying to drag McCloskey into this. He has never been picked under AF as anything other than at 12 and never as a sub. Even when you include Ulster you have to go back to 2017 for McCloskey to come off the bench. Which first team back are you possibly wagering could get injured for McCloskey to be selected ahead of JOB? You're risking basically blowing up your backline in most scenarios, with nowhere close to the upside than Aki brings in the few occasions he as a specialist has benched.

aloooof · 27-09-2023 8:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121165786#Comment_121165786

In the last 2 years the only players I can see who can rival the time JOB has gotten with Ireland in a similar utility/bench role are Conway and Earls.

This entirely overlooks the fact that Farrell doesn’t just opt for utility options in the 23 jersey. He regularly picks centres there.

No idea why you're trying to drag McCloskey into this. He has never been picked under AF as anything other than at 12 and never as a sub.

This is just not true.

Vs Australia, McCloskey was named in the 23 jersey - ahead of JOB. Henshaw got injured, McCloskey was promoted to 12 and JOB on the bench.

The same thing happened vs Italy on the 6 Nations, this time with Ringrose becoming injured, McCloskey then starting, and JOB taking his place on the bench.

In both scenarios, McCloskey was on the bench ahead of JOB.

With Farrell seeming to like a centre in the bench, all the evidence is that McCloskey is ahead of JOB in that regard.

typhoony · 27-09-2023 8:55pm

Just reading there today that Scotland have had to call up their 6th choice hooker which means turner has to play close to every minute of every game. Can't even think who our 6th choice would be.

aloooof · 27-09-2023 9:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121166408#Comment_121166408

Sheehan

Kelleher

Herring

Stewart

Barron

Scannell

Something like that?

Ireland v Scotland. Saturday 7th October. Stade DeFrance

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