Ireland v Scotland. Saturday 7th October. Stade DeFrance

I can't see 4 or 5 changes to the starting lineup as some think. I think we will only see Sheehan come into the starting 15. Conan to the bench, I doubt Farrell will start him from the off after being out for nearly two months. I think players who impressed versus SA like Hendo, Bealham, Murray, Henshaw will come in earlier next week if were in a good position at the start of the second half.

Pound for pound, there is no Scottish player I'd have in my combined 15. And even if Ireland rotate - something Farrell never does in significant numbers, much less against tier 1 opposition in must win games - I still think the best Scotland have to offer at about on par with their Irish peers

Porter vs Schoeman

Sheehan vs Turner

Furlong vs Fagerson

Beirne vs Gray

Ryan vs Cummings

POM vs Ritchie

VDF vs Darge

Doris vs Dempsey

JGP vs White

Sexton vs Russell

Lowe vs VDM - a generous draw. I think VDM is defensively poor but obviously a phenomenal attacker

Aki vs Tuipulotu

Ringrose vs Jones

Hansen vs Graham/ Steyn

Keenan vs Kinghorn

Swapping in and out some players too and the picture does not change too much does it?

I'd still take Henderson over any of their lock options.

Conan is a better option than any of their 6/8

Henshaw a better player than both Jones and Harris.

I'd still have Bealham over any of their tightheads

If anything you're overlooking that the utility back conversation is important because if there is an injury to the starting 11,14,15 then who is next up is vital for the next game and ideally they'll have some time. You've zoned into the 23 shirt and ignored every other scenario which would potentially bring JOB into fold, unless you believe they're going to completely rejig the line up to shoehorn McCloskey in somewhere.

Your examples of McCloskey being selected on the bench do not stack up at all as you've completely ignored the context:

Henshaw was injured in the Fiji game so McCloskey would have trained at centre all week leading up to this game. Given Henshaw's injury, if they were to risk starting him it made sense to have his direct cover on the bench.

Again, the same thing happened during the 6 nations. Ringrose was battling an injury from so the same situation applies with him training with the starters all week and being needed on the bench in case Ringrose reaggravated it, if he actually started.

AF has liked Aki and Henshaw on the bench who are two of Ireland's best players - head and shoulders above JOB and McCloskey and any other option. The only examples you have of McCloskey being preferred there is when one of the starting centres is injured all week leading up to the game and it was long shot the injured player was even going to play. You're making assumptions on AF's approach while ignoring all context.

Being more worried about the 3rd string in a given position more than the 2nd string in another is just a strange position to take

How many times has a centre not named Aki or Henshaw or Ringrose worn the 23 jersey in those games?

I haven't changed my point since I started - the backup back 3 needs game time against Scotland, whether it is JOB or Earls (my presumption was the former but my point stands either way). Not sure why that idea is deserving of this pushback.

The only reason I brought up the 3rd SH is to point out the weirdness that the same posters who cared so much about brining a 3rd string player are arguing about giving some game time to the 2nd string. Your point on Casey just emphisising it, that the 3rd string SH has played more recently than both backup back 3 players.