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Ireland v Scotland. Saturday 7th October. Stade DeFrance

135678

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,729 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Deleted



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,965 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    Your examples of McCloskey being selected on the bench do not stack up at all as you've completely ignored the context

    You're shifting the goalposts here. Let me remind you of your claim:

    The majority of the evidence we've seen for the last 2 years is that if there is an injury to any of the first choice 11-15 or 23 then JOB would at worst end up on the bench.

    The examples of McCloskey are directly at odds with that, where McCloskey was clearly selected ahead of JOB.

    Were you surprised to hear that McCloskey was selected in the 23 jersey?

    If you had said 11,14 and 15, I think that would've been accurate. But including centre and 23 is a different conversation.

    If anything you're overlooking that the utility back conversation is important because if there is an injury to the starting 11,14,15 then who is next up is vital for the next game

    Not at all overlooking it. But it begs the question of the injury profile of the 11,14 and 15 vs the centres. Off the top of my head, I can recall games since the NZ tour where each of Ringrose (NZ), Henshaw (Fiji) and McCloskey (South Africa) went off injured in-game.

    By contrast our 11,14 and 15 have been (touch wood) pretty bulletproof. In the same time frame, Keenan vs England is the only time I can remember one of the starting back-3 going off injured. (And bear in mind, that's in 3 positions vs 2).

    I think that's a large part of the reason why Farrell opts for a centre in the 23 jersey.

    And that's without mentioning injuries between games; again I'd wager the starting centres have a missed a higher number of minutes than the back-3. We've rarely had all 3 of Henshaw, Aki and Ringrose fit and available.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,305 ✭✭✭sprucemoose


    and apart from this years 6N, ireland generally have had a 10 on the bench (carbery or crowley) that can cover 15 so the need for someone as versatile as JOB is lessened - yes that means moving keenan or ringrose to the wing in the case of an injury there which is not ideal, but it covers that base

    this might be a stretch, but with his league background farrell may see less of a need for specialist cover as (to an extent) some positions are a little bit more interchangeable in that code. farrell himself played for england/GB at prop, second row, loose forward and stand off, he may have played half back too but im not 100% sure. im pretty sure he played hooker and centre for wigan on one or two occasions too



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,790 ✭✭✭✭Burkie1203


    Lowe over VDM all day long. VDM has qualities in attack but I reckon we will expose him in defence on the 7th



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,154 ✭✭✭✭Neil3030


    Even if picking a 23 from the combined Irish and Scottish RWC squads.

    Schoeman makes the bench and that's the only Scot, I reckon.

    Might be an argument for VDM over Henshaw for the 23 shirt on current form, but I'd still favour Robbie.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,965 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    The other thing is, we've regularly had a centre on the bench, but I can't really recall a game where a centre (presumably Ringrose) has had to move to the wing?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,305 ✭✭✭sprucemoose


    nope i cant remember the last time it happened either, id imagine if 23 were a centre though that it would just mean either keenan or ringrose moving there and 22/23 slotting into their position



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,416 ✭✭✭gameoverdude




  • Registered Users Posts: 11,171 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    The examples of McCloskey are directly at odds with that, where McCloskey was clearly selected ahead of JOB.

    Were you surprised to hear that McCloskey was selected in the 23 jersey?

    He wasn't 'clearly selected' ahead of JOB - both times he was a placeholder on the team sheet to cover for an injured centre who didn't train properly all week and would needed as cover if they started with their injury and didn't last, if not slide in as a starter if they didn't pass a late fitness test (the latter being exactly what happened both times).

    I get you're trying to win a battle of semantics and need to ignore all context to do so but the fact is that McCloskey has never worn the #23 shirt under AF and there is zero evidence he would be selected in that position outside of a starting centre being injured the week before.

    Not at all overlooking it. 

    You absolutely are overlooking and continue to overlook it in that post.

    In the run up to the world cup you seemed aghast at the idea of not bringing a 3rd string SH to the tournament in case of potential horrible injury luck yet somehow now you're banking on the 11,14,15 being so 'bullet proof' that we don't need the presumed 2nd string player for each position ready to slot in.

    That is a wild pivot in opinion, even by your standards.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,305 ✭✭✭sprucemoose


    comparing SHs and back 3 players is like comparing apples and Toyotas, completely different things altogether



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,719 ✭✭✭✭phog


    12 games in 2022, JOB started 4, benched once

    11 games in 2023, JOB started 3 benched once.

    Of the 10 6Ns games in the timeframe above he featured once on the bench.

    Hasn't featured yet in the RWC

    The 23 jersey was worn by a dedicated centre in the majority of those 23 games



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,171 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    Being more worried about the 3rd string in a given position more than the 2nd string in another is just a strange position to take



  • Registered Users Posts: 26 Calculus


    Genuinely can’t see Scotland laying a glove on us to be honest.

    Far from a given but with Finn Russell at 10 I think we’ve seen enough evidence that Ireland know how to shut him down.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,171 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    How many times has a centre not named Aki or Henshaw or Ringrose worn the 23 jersey in those games?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,305 ✭✭✭sprucemoose


    its been explained to you on a number of occasions by different posters as to why adequate cover in a specialist position is important

    almost by definition, there will be more options in the back three than at 9 so its important to have specialist cover at SH. even taking just wingers rather than the overall back there are still more options



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,719 ✭✭✭✭phog


    This discussion seems to be harping back to whether AF would bring 3 Scrumhalfs to the RWC, as expected by the majority here, he did, so it looks like there's another argument to be had.

    I'm out



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,171 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    Yes and the other options for the back 3 have also gotten practically no game time since the tournament started.

    I do not understand posters being stressed about a third string player and being fine that the two potential direct back ups for the back three will have only played ~55 mins each in 2 months, if they do not play next weekend and get called to start in the QF.

    This isn't a JOB thing - if Earls is in front of him then he needs game time also.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,305 ✭✭✭sprucemoose


    i honestly dont know what youre talking about at this stage tbh, casey has played more minutes than JOB or SMcC, not that this is even the point that was being discussed originally



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,171 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol




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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,171 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol



    I haven't changed my point since I started - the backup back 3 needs game time against Scotland, whether it is JOB or Earls (my presumption was the former but my point stands either way). Not sure why that idea is deserving of this pushback.

    The only reason I brought up the 3rd SH is to point out the weirdness that the same posters who cared so much about brining a 3rd string player are arguing about giving some game time to the 2nd string. Your point on Casey just emphisising it, that the 3rd string SH has played more recently than both backup back 3 players.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,305 ✭✭✭sprucemoose


    you may not have changed your point but its been waffle from the off so its hard to tell tbh

    bringing up bringing a third 9 just emphasised this even more



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,965 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    Lucky that’s not my position, then.

    There’s an obvious difference between picking a 3rd choice scrum-half for a World Cup tournament squad, and picking the 23 jersey for the last pool game where you effectively need a win. The selection policy in those scenarios isn’t the same.

    But I can see why you want to move away from the original argument considering you’ve went from (emphasis mine):

    the majority of the evidence we've seen for the last 2 years is that if there is an injury to any of the first choice 11-15 or 23 then JOB would at worst end up on the bench

    to then adding caveats for why McCloskey was favoured that include:

    Henshaw was injured in the Fiji game

    Ringrose was battling an injury

    See the problem there?

    In any case, for a second time 2nite, I’m not making the argument you seem to think I’m making. When it comes to JOB, I posted the following only yesterday:

    Are Conan, JOB and McCloskey the only ones without gametime yet? I think there’s a chance we might see one of the latter 2 in the 23 jersey.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The next 10 days are a bit like the Phoney War October 1939 to April 1940.

    Scotland will be the Norway campaign and the All Blacks full blitzkrieg through the Ardennes. I don't which side we're on yet!



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,171 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    So you actually agreed with my original point but have chosen to drag us down this hole because you wanted to be pedantic?

    My original statement you've taken issue with:

    the majority of the evidence we've seen for the last 2 years is that if there is an injury to any of the first choice 11-15 or 23 then JOB would at worst end up on the bench

    Based on the assumption that JOB is ahead of Earls, if there was an injury to 11,14,15 JOB comes in to start and if 12 or 13 then Henshaw comes in and opens up 23.

    JOB has worn the 23 shirt before McCloskey has worn it zero times - evidence that AF trusts JOB in that role.

    You have called out two very specific scenarios where a center was not fully ruled out in advance of a game and was instead fighting for fitness - in such a bad state that they each lost their battle before kick-off. I agree I didn't specify that scenario, though I believed using 'majority of the evidence' would shield me from folks being pedantic - I was clearly wrong.

    I agree, in a scenario where one of three top centers are ruled out and then another is carrying an injury, where they are unlikely be able to play, then evidence we have points to McCloskey being picked #23 in the initial team announcement. Happy with that? Can we move on?



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,965 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    So you actually agreed with my original point but have chosen to drag us down this hole because you wanted to be pedantic?

    Nope. Your original point was about how JOB has featured in the past. I think it's pretty clear I don't think what you said is factually accurate. If, say, Ringrose had won his fitness battle I think it's pretty obvious McCloskey would have remained in the 23 jersey he was originally named in, ahead of JOB.

    Whether I think JOB could feature vs Scotland is a separate argument. (And I did mention McCloskey in that post too fwiw)

    In any case, yes I'm happy to move on... will leave it with the respective minutes for those outside the starting 11-15 and 23 for the previous 2 seasons. (i.e. anyone outside of Lowe, Aki, Ringrose, Hansen, Keenan and Henshaw, and excluding RWC warm-ups etc).


    Post edited by aloooof on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,104 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cxv6Cuvs2ci/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==


    Looks like Healy is ready for an injury call up if required



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,115 ✭✭✭blackcard




  • Moderators, Arts Moderators Posts: 35,618 Mod ✭✭✭✭pickarooney




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,305 ✭✭✭sprucemoose


    fair but i dunno would i be taking my lead from them all the same to be honest



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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,171 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    Nope. Your original point was about how JOB has featured in the past. I think it's pretty clear I don't think what you said is factually accurate. 

    Here's the point of my original post, which you selectively ignored and quoted around to try for a pedantic 'gothca':

    Unless Earls has gotten ahead of JOB as utility back cover then they have to get JOB game time.


    If, say, Ringrose had won his fitness battle I think it's pretty obvious McCloskey would have remained in the 23 jersey he was originally named in, ahead of JOB.

    Of course he would have, they had a center who had just squeaked by a late fitness test with an injury with a very high risk of reaggravation. It makes sense to keep the guy in there who was training in that position all week. Your issue is McCloskey backing up a very doubtful to play player is the only time AF has even considered him at 23.

    AF could have even tried McCloskey there during the warm ups but didn't bother. AF might do it during the WC but there is zero evidence he will in any situation outside of your narrow scenario.

    I can also leave it with a list of our non-starting backs at the WC, excluding SH & OH, and their number of appearances wearing the 23 shirt in the last 2 years.

    Earls: 4

    JOB: 3

    McCloskey: 0 (also his Irish career number of games wearing any jersey number other than 12)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭typhoony


    Heard Loughman has been bitten by a spider, healy just happens to be in Paris on a coffee tasting excursion after recovering from injury ahead of schedule



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Poor oul Loughman has to watch his back!



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,965 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    In which case, maybe Earls is ahead of him then. ;) Have a good one, chief.



  • Registered Users Posts: 190 ✭✭tmc1963


    edit - wrong thread



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,733 ✭✭✭Dubinusa


    I'd keep Loughman and disappear Kilcoyne.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,767 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,313 ✭✭✭✭PTH2009


    All In our hands now



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,416 ✭✭✭gameoverdude


    Turning circle in defence like a cocaine ship caught on a sandbank.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 723 ✭✭✭Mr Disco


    Well SA v Tonga result means in the v unlikely event 3 teams finish on 15, Eire will be out



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  • Registered Users Posts: 503 ✭✭✭Happyhouse22




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,297 ✭✭✭coco0981


    Unless Ireland lose by less than 4 points and Scotland get a 4 Try BP. Then all would be on 15 points but Ireland would top group became of best points difference


    (I think)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,283 ✭✭✭techdiver


    4 or less. That would put us on +118 and SA are currently on +117.


    Edit: Even losing by 5 whilst scoring 1 try or more puts is ahead of South Africa. (We're both on identical try difference 22/4 & 21/3).



  • Registered Users Posts: 503 ✭✭✭Happyhouse22


    Also I think if Ireland lose by more 20 (while getting a 4 try bonus) . Scotland would top the group and then Ireland would be second on the head to head..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,297 ✭✭✭coco0981


    Think we can safely chalk that one down as unlikely 😂



  • Registered Users Posts: 951 ✭✭✭Vinnie222


    Head to Head doesn't count if 3 teams are equal on pts



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,313 ✭✭✭✭PTH2009


    Kind of frustrating that South Africa have lost 1 game and are through but we lose 1 game then its curtains for us

    Maybe scrap LBP



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,297 ✭✭✭coco0981


    They mean Scotland would overtake us and SA on points difference



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,283 ✭✭✭techdiver


    It does for determining second place. First place is determined by scoring difference if all 3 teams are equal on 15 points but then the remaining two are matched head to head for second place.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,292 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs




This discussion has been closed.
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