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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,433 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    I heard Pearse Doherty speak at the DEW last week. This what he said:

    See page 19 for housing.


    He mentioned two tools:

    using stamp duty changes to discourage construction of commercial property, so as to divert labour and capital to residential construction

    he mentioned "emergency measures" twice, as in like the fast response to COVID.



  • Registered Users Posts: 171 ✭✭Beigepaint


    Does SF have any specific policies on keeping the capital’s buildings under their current height cap? Or any policies relating to encouraging height increases within the canals?



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,578 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    SF policies is houses for everyone.......well those that cannot afford or do not want to pay for houses everybody else can f@@k off.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The only time the governance of Ireland was overseen by a mature adult, any dread was within government

    Very popular with the public

    AJ Chopra (Imf)

    I have had a somewhat unexpected and new-found notoriety while I've been here. Everybody has been very gracious and I'm not used to a situation where I've been so recognisable. People have come up to me - and called me by my first name as well - but they've done so in a very polite and very gracious way and they've always wished me the best. The pluck of the Irish has been coming out in this crisis



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭Villa05


    I always find it funny how people think there is some conspiracy to inflate property prices. A property only has a value when it comes to selling it.

    I think the conspiracy is theory is that the government is spending 4 billion to help solve the housing issue.

    The truth is that every measure introduced by government is inflationary. Imagine if most of that money was spent on new supply rather than stoking existing demand



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭Villa05


    A very high percentage of housing in Ireland was originally social housing, for every problem estate, would you be able to find 10 good ones?

    Would the issues if the past reoccur in a period of full employment?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,262 ✭✭✭The Student


    You have picked a point and tried to use it out of context. The vast majority of people own a single property and it is not an investment. It is a place to live. By and large the vast majority of people who purchase a property to live in will maybe move two or three times throughout their life.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,262 ✭✭✭The Student


    I am well aware that following the foundation of the State the vast majority of people where housed by the State.

    If you assertions were accurate and the issues of the past were related to unemployment then why are those currently on council housing lists offered three properties before they are penalised for not taking one on offer? Surely people would jump at the first offer.

    Areas still have reputations for a reason, if people get something easy some will not value it as much as someone who has had to work harder just to get to the same place.

    In my view the issue goes deeper than whether someone is employed or not. We as a State refuse to deal with those issues that we all know is wrong be it antisocial issues, non payment of rent, mortgage, illegal activity.

    How often do we hear of petty criminals with multiple previous convictions be released with a caution?



  • Registered Users Posts: 625 ✭✭✭Cal4567


    Most of the social housing demand also is for 2 beds, 1 beds, 3s and 4s, in that order. An example of family size demographics.

    As for councils, I'd be very worried about their ability to deliver and manage property sensibly.

    We need a much larger AHB sector and have done so for a number of years. Because of poor housing policy (hello FFG again) we are playing catch up.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,540 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    You are either being facetious, or as usual unable to apply relevant context to your posts.

    The Troika prevented Ireland from dealing with bond holders as they should have, and the policies they imposed on us were more about protecting their own interests than any good intentions for the Irish people.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,202 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    Back when we imported thousands of Eastern European builders.

    These lads have all gone home, now Poland has a growth rate comparable to Ireland, and soon while cities in Ukraine will need to be rebuilt.

    No one is coming to Ireland to pay massive cost of living and receive labourers wages.



  • Registered Users Posts: 625 ✭✭✭Cal4567


    It might be possible but the State (and particularly middle Ireland parents) would need to see their children not heading to university unless it is for a serious degree such as medicine, law etc, and heading off instead to apprenticeships. That is beginning to happen but at a small scale. Seriously needs to be ramped up.

    While we will attract some from abroad, even if there are serous challenges, where those people would actually live?, we have to also look to within. When I see councils though downsizing the number of new homes in their areas, I have to be concerned that despite all the grandstanding there is very little government and state enthusiasm, or perhaps there is state enthusiasm, it is just some elements of the state who want to retain the status quo/a perennial demand for housing, which thus keeps prices up?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Timothy Geithner (Obama's treasury secretary), the ECB and the Irish Gov insisted on paying back bondholders in full as the Irish government had signed us all up to that path. The UK the IMF, Vincent Browne and the village of Ballyhea in North Cork argued for relief

    If you want to know what dread is, try an ffg government with eye-watering national debt and a blank cheque book pumping a property bubble. The day the IMF left was a sorry day for Irish people, in particular the generations to come.

    Is that context enough for you?



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Yeah costs are up but there are numerous reports stating that we have enough labour in construction with the slow down on the commercial side to build its our planning that is the huge issue. If only there was a body that could alleviate this - ye know someone like the state/government funny how they can get involved really hands on when things like Covid was an issue there is just not the same sense of urgency with regards to housing. The other side is they are making incredibly short sighted decisions that are upping the prices of property like upping the income ratios and now they are looking at using some of the below listed schemes for 2nd hand homes this is going to push price up and up and up. I mean how many billions are they thrown at things like FTB grants, HTB schemes, Rent credits, HAP, Local Authority Purchase Scheme, First Home Scheme, Local Authority Home Loan Scheme, Cost Rental Schemes, Mortgage to Rents schemes, Vacant Property Refurbishment schemes, Ready to build schemes. Throw in the renting of properties from the REITS for very high rents for very long periods of times and they are doused in cash not only if they were to stop all of the above but they are projected to have 50Billion due to corpo tax alone over the next 5 years. So costs should not be an issue.

    So they could if the will was there turn to modular homes cheaper and quicker using the billions outlaid from all of the above schemes. As far as I can see the above schemes push property prices up for everyone or benefit other interested parities such as banks and builders., they could allow banks repossess homes that are in default we are an anomaly in this regards and there are people out there who just wont pay the mortgage as they know they cant be evicted, they could also up the threshold for on vacant poverty tax say 10% so the people owning the property/site has 10 years to use it or pay the equivalence in tax. Yet I fear the construction industry, banks and other vested interests will not allow this happen. It beggars belief that they are looking at giving landlords a tax break as well. When you step back at this and look at it in the round it rather easy to see that our state does not want to see property prices falling I cant think of any other reasons for the way the situation has been handled.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Have they even been asked. You look at the likes of Oz or Dubai they are actively out recruiting our teachers, guards and nurses has anyone on our side gone and asked the question in other countries with a decent offer? I don't think they have. The one contradiction in your argument is we have a nett migration of people coming into the country (so we cannot be the sh1thole you paint us out to be) surely this inflow needs to be streamlined and people with skills that match our shortages should be welcomed with open arms and have them using their skills and those who offer naught and will be sitting on the dole for years or without any valid papers should be told to go back home. Also labourers wages are actually quite high here at the minute. I mean the gov can house every Tom, Dick Harrokavich who needs housing, could there not be a scheme of free housing for builders coming in from a different country for say 3-5 years who come to work here get them building enough modular homes to meet the current demand - problem solved it may cost money but we have a50Billion windfall in corpo tax coming over the next 5 years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,202 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    Yes, but those families, and the families of people already in the trades, were seriously burned in 2008 and the 6 years after. No wonder no one wants to get into trades now, even with the high wages they're getting.

    Add in the physical toll of 30+ years of manual labour which will see that few tradespeople are capable of working to retirement age, and easy, well paid jobs with benefits are available in factories and MNCs.

    Why anyone would choose to be a builder now is beyond me.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,202 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    Ireland is not a sh*thole. Far from it, its an excellent country if you own a house and have your health, and the net migration we have is not for construction

    And yes, the Irish govt has promoted Ireland abroad and gotten a poor response.

    They have an action plan here https://www.gov.ie/pdf/?file=https://assets.gov.ie/268017/df0ab549-7e67-48e4-b551-ad6eb59048bc.pdf#page=null


    The gist is that Ireland needs 50k builders and no one wants to do it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,513 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Lol I get all that but I think you’re the one missing the point.. if total supply doesn’t increase it just means more social housing and less private housing built. Social housing tenants renting in private housing is not going to free up private housing because emergency accommodation is full and as a result the private housing will still be occupied by social tenants.

    yes if there was enough social housing built it would make a difference but that would need to be in addition to what is already being built (I.e. increase total supply). It’s not that hard to get your head around



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,513 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Are the issues not present today with full employment?



  • Registered Users Posts: 387 ✭✭bluedex


    Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,202 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    SF has plenty of policies, and will likely get a chance to exercise them after the next GE.



  • Registered Users Posts: 387 ✭✭bluedex


    I don't think being a "Hurler on the Ditch" counts as a policy

    Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,202 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio




  • Registered Users Posts: 387 ✭✭bluedex


    Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,513 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    There’s a big difference between a policy and a 30 second media clip or sound bite.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,984 ✭✭✭hometruths


    How many people are in emergency accommodation?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,513 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    About 13k at last count which excludes

    -the 23k of international refugees

    -people coach surfing etc.

    So in total you are talking about 35-40k people where the majority will be single individuals. That number would mushroom if social housing was easily available and wasn’t elsewhere in Europe.

    Just to be clear this isn’t a post on immigration it just pointing out that any capacity created by building more social housing is unlikely to free up private rental accommodation unless the overall number of properties being built increases. Yes we badly need more social housing but this is needed in addition to what is already being built.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,523 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    If the slowdown in commercial helps develop residentital projects that will benefit the current govt also.

    Not just SF.

    The help to biy schemes are to enable people to purchase homes! I dont really see how this can be viewed as a negative.

    Landlords absolutley need incentivising to stay in the market!

    If they leave the market, who is going to provide homes to rent? And then you would probably wonder why the homeless figures went up!

    I agree the planning system needs to be overhauled and better resourced.

    Thats something the govt should have done years ago.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Its pushing the prices up think if they were not there houses would have to drop to a level that people could afford the price and the proof from the UK show these schemes push up prices, now imagine using that money to buy modular homes and take our poor and refugees out of the equation for the rest of the property market. When help to buy came in prices jumped by roughly the amount on offer. Why do landlords need incentivizing ?? They have 2 properties if its not working sell one and they still have one and let someone buy it from them.. Someone from our population still gets to live in it regardless of if they have bought it and It should not be up to private landlords to provide housing for people. So in real terms yes someone loses a rental but someone can buy it so its a zero sum game.



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,984 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Majority of these are single individuals which presumably means we cannot rely on the old 2.75 average household size - i.e these people need their own private accommodation? i.e we can't conclude we need 5000 units to house the 13k in emergency accommodation?

    And if we were somehow, say by spending 4bn per annum more efficiently, build enough social housing so there was no shortage based on current numbers we still wouldn't have enough because it would just attract more people who needed social housing?

    It's amazing the logic people use to justify the idea we are facing a problem that there is no solution to.

    And conclude that we are just better off pissing 4bn down the drain every year to make the situation worse.



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