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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,513 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    we all know your belief that we have to much housing and I’m not going near that and giving you the platform your looking for.

    Yet again you put words in my mouth in an effort to get your platform. You have your own active thread for that.

    nowhere did i say there were no solutions or justification in spending 4bn in the manor we currently do. I am just pointing out that building the same no of properties and just increasing social housing and reducing private builds is only moving the existing issues from one cohort to another and doesn’t solve the issue.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,984 ✭✭✭hometruths


    My post was nothing to do with my belief about the current numbers of housing. It was about the manner in which 4bn is spent annually.

    The way it is spent at the minute is compounding the problems of affordability. It is a vicious circle.

    The idea that spending it on directly building social housing rather than spending on subsidies in the private market would not at least alleviate the problem is ridiculous.

    Apologies if you feel I put words in your mouth, but you did make the point that:

    So in total you are talking about 35-40k people where the majority will be single individuals. That number would mushroom if social housing was easily available and wasn’t elsewhere in Europe.

    My post was actually asking you to clarify this, hence the question marks. Sorry if it was phrased badly.

    Can you explain what you meant by pointing out the majority of these people might be single? And this apparent negative consequence of social housing being easily available?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭Villa05


    If the slowdown in commercial helps develop residentital projects that will benefit the current govt also

    I think the slowdown in commercial will spread to residential. These rate hikes will cool the jets of the investment funds

    Need projects ready to go if this occurs.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,513 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Yet again where did I say this

    “The idea that spending it on directly building social housing rather than spending on subsidies in the private market would not at least alleviate the problem is ridiculous.”

    This is what I mean by putting words in my mouth. I stated my point that not building more and just changing the mix of social v private is just moving the pain point. Simple as….so you can stop your fishing exercise.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    It is also putting (or should be) the kybosh on demand but watch for 2nd hand properties getting gov schemes chucked at them and the existing ones having more cash 40k FTBs and the likes and if that don't work I reckon they will up the lending limits again.



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,984 ✭✭✭hometruths


    What you've quoted is me stating my opinion, not me putting words inbuilt mouth.

    In the previous post I misunderstood the significance of your point:

    So in total you are talking about 35-40k people where the majority will be single individuals. That number would mushroom if social housing was easily available and wasn’t elsewhere in Europe.

    and simply asked you to clarify. But it's no big deal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,513 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    There are 10’s of thousands units with planning permission approved and not started because even at existing prices it’s not economically viable till prices increase by 15-25%. I know it’s crazy and a disgrace that they will not be built for at least 5-10 years (if ever). The only way to counteract this is a use it or loose it policy with planning revoked and land rezoned to agriculture etc for the underlying beneficial owners.

    This stops them setting up new company to get around it and leaves them with two options sell land at a discount to someone that builds or build at reduced profit margin before planning is revoked and value of land plummets.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Already happening, 2 colleagues who got notice to quit are having there apts purchased by the council and rented back to them

    A third missed out as income was slightly over the limit. The cost for this person is massive. Think carefully before doing that overtime



  • Registered Users Posts: 33 Stoned_Rosie


    I've been reading some posts in the Irish personal finance subreddit over on Reddit.

    Interesting some of the comments around people bidding for houses.

    One thread today was a person who was the highest bidder at 5k under asking. Then someone comes along a week later with a bid 50k higher. The upvoted post with others in agreement said the new bidder is probably sick of being outbid and just wants it done.

    If this is the case that people are just throwing as much money as they can no matter what they think the house is worth, I think it's going to end badly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,202 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    What happened there is the second bidder offered exactly what they thought the house was worth, and likely did a "take it or leave it" offer.


    One of my friends did the same. House ad went on Daft on a Monday, he viewed on Tuesday, made an offer well above asking and went sale agreed same day. Ad was taken down on Wednesday.

    Job done, no one else got a look in.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,523 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Modular homes wont get planning permission at scale. They wont be built in large towns and cities, where homes are needed. Because they wont get planning permission.

    A landlord doesnt need to sell their property. They can hold it. Its not a zero sum game.

    And every home a landlord removes from the rental market is one less home available to a growing population.

    The repercussion is increased homelessness.

    We need Landlords to stay in the market, especially when the govt buids f**k all social homes themselves.

    There is effectivley no supply of rental property other than what is delivered by the private landlord.

    If the govt actually built their own properties we could get tough on landlords.

    But they don't. So we can't.



  • Registered Users Posts: 625 ✭✭✭Cal4567


    Actually there are examples of AHBs delivering modular to scale, but I assume you are referring to private build.

    Only a matter of time. Modular has been quite late to break into Ireland, purely my own suspicion, but I always felt the CIF was up to very recently dominated by sector interests who were keen to support traditional wet trades. However, that looks to be changing.

    Would be interested to see if anyone who currently works in construction agrees with that, or have I got it wrong?



  • Registered Users Posts: 544 ✭✭✭theboringfox


    Asking prices are often guide price. I find given how long Ive been looking I can tell fairly easily now if something is priced low to get bidders in. I still personally would not do 50k jump bid as its not in me but I have been bidding on plenty of houses where I wish I had given where price ended up. Also if it is a house with lots of bidders it is likely a good few will pay what its worth but to decide who gets it means someone usually has to pay that bit more. Look at recent stats on volume and value of first time buyer mortgages...way up over last year despite rate rises. All chasing little supply and running away from high rents. Prices remain strong as result with exception of doer uppers maybe



  • Registered Users Posts: 210 ✭✭Mr Hindley


    Supply still going no where fast... From anecdotal observation on Daft, asking prices in Dublin at least don't seem to be changing much, though I suspect a lot of places, houses at least, are going well over asking.




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,057 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Modular is not cost competitive in this country - unless its timber framed modular which do not last in this climate.

    The maintenance costs will increase and increase over time - but thats a problem for 40 years from now so nobody cares



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,984 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Do you know if the 2 whose apartments were purchased by the council already receiving HAP or some other housing support?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,523 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Indeed.

    Another headwind that the resi sector faces.

    Some people continie to believe thst SF will just magically move through the gears and enable construction of 60k+ homes from year 1 onwards.

    It isnt going to happen and how sorry the youth will be when they realise they have gained no extra homes and have lost good job opportunities at home to boot.

    As SF go after the multinationals and highearners with increased taxation and the targeted groups just move country.

    Net result is fewer homes and fewer good employment prospects for everyone, including the 20 somethings.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,523 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Dd you have any examples where modular homes have been built at scale witin Dublin or other high price areas?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,523 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Do you have any examples where modular homes have been built at scale in Dublin or other high price areas?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,523 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    A good question.

    I thought the renter had to be in receipt of housing support in some way to qualify for this council buy back scheme.

    Which is essentially unfair, but then if you remove the limits on earnings/benefits for the renter to qualify, where does the scheme end?

    It would mean the govt should be purchasing any rented home if the tenant has a NtQ.

    Regardless of how much the tenant earns or has in wealth.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Horsecrap about the planning our state effectively controls this and local authorities can be told to do what they are told. Anyone locally objecting should have a CPO put on their property to put some manners on them. It is a zero sum game if a landlord is not making a profit on rent they are hardly going to hold on to an asset where prices are actually starting to drop? Doesn't seem like the brightest idea to me but who knows I reckon a lot will be cashing in so if a landlord sells their property then someone buys it so zero sum as one person loses a place to live and someone gains a place to live. Put in vacant property tax and it will force the landlord to rent. So no incentivization for them put a tax on their place if its vacant so they either rent or buy we should not be giving tax payers money to any individual who is rich enough to own 2 or more properties..



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,523 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Many landlords do sell, of course.

    But when they sell, the new owner very rarely moves off a housing list and they quite often do not leave an empty property behind them.

    Think of a couple moving from 2 houseshares to buy a home. The 2 homes they left are still occupied by the other renters. Same with first time buyers moving out of parents home. Or a couple that seperates etc.

    The people who have money to buy a home, rarely leave an empty home behind.

    Essentially, the increased number of homes is housing the same amount of people, but the ratio between people and homes has reduced.

    Plenty of landlords do leave the property empty, because natural rises in value offset any vacany tax imposed.

    They can also just move a family member into the home (offically - even if they dont actually live there)

    Lots of ways landlords can get around not renting out the property and still accrue value long term from their asset.

    The bottom line is we shouldn't be forcing potential landlords into a situation where they HAVE to rent out a property. We should create an environment where they WANT to rent out their property.

    That's one of the first key steps to actually solving the housing crisis, that and building far more homes at scale.

    But as far as landlords are concerned, more Carrot & less stick is part of the solution.

    And social housing tenants should house share, same as private tenants do. That would have a huge impact on reducing homelessness.

    What's good for the goose and all that...



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    hang on one person moves out and another moves in regardless of being on any list its a zero sum game. Someone had 2 properties they now have 1 and someone else had no property or a partial space in a property and now they have one. Giving landlords a tax break is absolutely bananas in the current situation. As I say if they have a vacant property tax at 10% they have to use it or lose it. Time is up on people hoarding critical infrastructure. Stick needs to be sharpened the carrots have been well and truly eaten



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,523 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    If a couple move out of their parents home to buy a house, nobody moves into their parents home when they leave.

    The same 6 people are now occupying 3 homes instead of 2.

    Same for a separating couple. 1 stays in the home but they dont move someone else in.

    Same 2 people are now occupying 2 homes instead of 1.

    In a house share, another person gets a place to share when someone moves out to buy, which is a good thing. But as the social list doesnt put people in house shares, that sequence doesnt reduce the homeless/housing waiting list.

    There should be a change of policy there so that people on the housing list get offered places in house shares and if they dont accept, they get moved to the back of the queue.

    Lots of working folks dont have the luxury of single occupancy rentals, so why should non-working folks?

    10% vacancy tax is easily avoidable. Just move a family member in officially, even if they dont actually live there.

    There are barely any carrots for landlords at the moment which is the exact reason why they are leaving the market.



  • Registered Users Posts: 426 ✭✭grumpyperson


    We went 30k over in our final bid. We'd been looking for about 4 years. The time and money wasted over those 4 years is probably over 30k.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,578 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    I am not sure I go 50k over either. However from years going to auctions I have seen tactics like this often and they do work. I have often see lads do a 2-5k jump where the bids were in. 500's to shake off another bidder( on items worth les than 100k.

    50k is a serious jump, however if you have been put bid 8-10 times and two years later still paying 2k/ month in rent and want to get on with life then maybe this is your final throw of the dice, check.yhr market value and put that bid in with 5-10 K on top.

    5;-10k extra to where you think the bidding might stop is only a few.months rent for many

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Both cases were not in receipt of any state housing assistance

    In both cases rent significantly below current market rent as LL's caught in the rent freeze

    Income limits for a couple circa 60k net p/a

    Scheme is open to tennants not in receipt of state assistance and to persons not on social housing list

    Having and declaring savings inadvisable for qualification




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,057 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    CIF now calling on govt to introduce a 1% levy on all second hand home sales, to justify gouging on new build prices fund infrastructure.

    More inflationary nonsense, and poorly justified too. New builds need a contribution to infrastructure because new houses mean an increasing population,which in turn requires more infra and amenities to support it. A 2nd hand home sale does not mean more population, and does not require any additonal infrastructure, so should not have any levies.



  • Registered Users Posts: 290 ✭✭Honey50000


    30k over crazy was it priced very low to start with or what?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    They are leaving due to the really high prices at the moment and with interest rates going higher the price increases have stopped and are turning so they are checking out at what most would say is the highest price point. Why didn't they sell 5 - 6 years ago tax on property has not increased in that time if anything it is now more attractive to be a landlord you can now offset mortgage interest yet landlords fleeing the market has only ramped up in the last 2/3 years.

    Just some issues with your narrative, firstly your first point the 2 sets of parents are still living in their home and are you really saying its a sustainable model where couples in their late 20s and 30s trying to make it work while staying in their parents for ever more?

    The fact is if a landlord sells a property someone will use it and rent it out or someone else will buy it and live in it we can make up any scenario you want with regards to the making up of what happens when we buy/sell or rent but the question I want answered is why would it be a good idea to give a tax break for someone who is in the fortunately position to own 2 properties. It does not make sense and I certainly don't want my taxes going towards it. If the current situation is not working for the landlord then sell its that simple.



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