FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Indeed it would, even shows a raw 25C over Dublin... higher than July/August 🙃

No record will be broken, but 23 or 24 will be incredible for the time of year. We could then be looking at a plunge in temperatures in the days afterwards courtesy of Northerly.

I doubt it, the 850 temps are very high, still you need a set of perfect conditions for that to happen, although I could be wrong. Let's see!

To put those charts into context from last night... before June 2019, the 20C isotherm has likely never paid Ireland a visit based on all the charts I've viewed over the years. We've gotten to 19C but not 20C. Then June 2019 came and did it. Then July 2022. So the prospects of it being possible (not saying likely) in October given perfect parameters, that's well I frankly have no words to describe.

But it will be 15c in Malin that day....

Probably as it would be southerly/southwesterly.

The following weekend will be 10c so we will enjoy. No doubt a warm spell every month of the Winter too such as 17 or 18c in November and 15 or 16c in December. But there's a lot of kinks in the jet stream this year so we could go very mild to very cold on the other side too.

Exactly. There were a few of those comments during the September heatwave. But you have to just take and appreciate the nice weather whenever it comes.

For records to be broken you really need the perfect set-up. Especially in Ireland. Which rarely happens. It's a record for a reason. So it's almost always going to be a case of high temps occurring too early or too late in the season, or not accompanied by the right cloud conditions etc etc. Or occurring after a wet spell when the ground is too moist to really heat the air. I mean how many times have we seen great conditions in the pit of winter? It just is what it is.

What's the record for the longest streak of +20º days in October Sryan?

And what's the overall record out of curiosity?

Am I the only one that doesn't want any of these high temps in October?

It's getting to the stage now where ya don't even bat an eyelid anymore at temperatures. 20c in October isn't that uncommon and certainly not unusual in 2023. Met Eireanns model on gives 2 to 3 days of 20 plus though.

I always fear a good spell of weather in March-May because it often means we’re going to get a bad summer, but a settled spell in October might just mean an unsettled winter which is totally expected anyway!

Wel still get a cool October spell after all the heat and more than likely milder weather for November and December though last year December was cold for about a week. The only prolonged cold weather in about the last 12 months.

Time to open the sneachta thread!

It appeared on Monday evening on the pub run actually 🤣

Greenland blocking in October can only mean a big Euro high in winter, that’s the way our climate works, must look up flights to Athens in Jan/Feb.

I think it’s clear at this stage that all bets are off on how our climate works. The rule book has gone out the window.

If that happened today it would be blamed on climate change

We didn't get one for decades until 2009 and 2010. The first few days were fun, but a month of it was cruel.

Yep 2009-10 and 2010 were the result of persistent cold, slack airflows from the northeast for many days with snow cover helping as an insulator allowing any heat to be radiated back into space leading to intense cooling in the air. The 1958 northerly blast was the result of severely cold, unstable air (-11C) straight from the arctic at an ideal time of year along with a much colder arctic compared to now. Think of it like a "beast from the east" but from the north instead. Extremely cold for a short period of time (though a northerly will never be as cold with a longer sea track compared to a continental easterly) but as it crosses the relatively warm seas, the convection just builds and builds into huge cumulonimbus towers letting out masses of white powder.

I just don't see northerlies anymore being that conducive to severe cold without a slack flow. There's just too much mixing and too much warm residue in the oceans. Easterlies can still have a bite but getting harder for those too.

Anyway, that GFS 12z wasn't totally on its own as an outlier but was on the colder end as you'd expect. It showed a significant snow event over Wales and the west Midlands in England. I hope to God this isn't the start of another winter where the GFS goes haywire after having a decent summer. Its verification jumped off a cliff especially in February.