Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

That would be an interesting one, you couldn't rule it out.

However, Sinn Fein are probably the most anti-Green party in Ireland, based on current policies. They can't even make up their mind what level of emissions to aim for in agriculture, let alone commit to major public transport projects. There is an even bigger divide on carbon tax which is a fundamental issue for the Greens, but Sinn Fein want to abolish it, all part of the Sinn Fein policy of "someone else pays" for everything.

The Greens will be anxious to preserve their legacy, and if SF are a few seats short, they could go in with them but it would be on the basis of increases in carbon taxes, even more accelerated public transport and further reductions in agricultural emissions. SF will be reluctant to pay that price because their core support will have voted for "Free Everything".

And we haven't even got into SF's recent shift towards enough is enough on immigration.

SF will need more than 2 or 3 seats from another party to form a govt.

Its FF or bust for SF.

The 2 or 3 seats they may need to form a tri-party govt is irrelevant. They could just hitch a few indies to their wagon to make up the numbers.

But if FF say no, its door closed for SF.

Eamon Ryan, Ossian Smyth, Catherine Martin and Roderic O'Gorman can all take seats. That would be four.

Greens will be decimated again I think.

Depending on the lead in to the election I think one or other of FF or FG will be too.

That could mean another GE and FF could spin it ... "sure look SF told you they could form a government but you can now see they can" while SF may turn around and say ... "sure look we the most likely party of government you need to vote SF to have a chance to get a government!"

TBH I will still go with them only needing a few seats. I think this will be how it will play out.

Greens, SD, LP and PBP (AKA the left of Irish politics) will be dividing up a very small portion of their vote, this will lead to them being excluded and many of those votes will end up with SF (if in some constituencies SF are running 3 candidates in some areas).

5 seaters will look like this

4 seaters

3 seaters

That's just my take on how I think it is going. And ignore the locals, LP will do as well as normal in the locals.

If FF partner with SF, they will almost certainly have over 80 between them anyway.

No need for anyone else.

But if FFG lead again, they will need Soc Dems most probably.

But if SF get in, what good will it do?

As you say, they wont solve the housing crisis but they will raise taxes and they will be anti big business.

Which leads to fewer good jobs in the country and less opportunities for young people.

I dont really know what benefits SF can give to the unemployed as they already do very well, so who exactly does a SF govt benefit? Once you accept that the housing crisis cant be solved in 5 years.

They wont stop mass immigration either and they cant fix the health service.

So what changes, other than having higher taxes for workers and less job opportunities?

I wouldn't disagree with any of that 😂. I'm not their biggest fan at all. It infuriates me the way they sit on the fence on so many of the major issues we face in the coming years.

If anything changes with respect to housing, it will be who gets housed. There might be more social housing at the expense of first time buyers. I don't think it will help them get a home, but at the very least they will have to stop blaming other generations for their situation. They would have the government that they want, so no excuses.

True, but social housing is already being prioritised over first time buyers as it is. Part 5 at 20% plus govt buying up extra stock for social. Constantly.

There isnt a card SF can play that isnt already on the table.

IMO, FG need to become the party that prioritises those who contribute. A proportion of the 20% social should be reserved for essential workers (teachers, nurses, guards) who need to live in the area. Zero extra cost and sends a clear signal. It would make it much easier to recruit staff in high demand areas.

SF have made an enormous amount of promises to the electorate. Some of them wildly ambitious.

I’d also have reservations about a SF minister of justice (asking for access to files relating to IRA informers could get very very messy). Then you have Doherty who is great at shouting and roaring, but is a complete intellectual lightweight. They are also hugely eurosceptic.

M. Martin has no real ideological problem with a coalition with SF. He opened the door to one after the last election after all.

Martin's problem was always not being the biggest party in that coalition, when it emerged that FF were only going to be bigger by dint of the sitting Ceann Comhairle, the door to coalition was closed.

I would neither believe Micheall's oath and I don't think he will lead them into the next election.

After a few years of miserable polling, I think a new leader will make it known or intimate that the door is open to a coalition with SF. That way they may pick up transfers.

Any new FF leader will be tasked with putting clear water between them and FG.

Unless SF polling continues to rise I think they will be open to that coalition.

There are now five seats in Dublin West. He was certain to lose out before, but now only needs 16.6% of the vote after transfers, rather than 20% in a four-seat constituency. Let's see how the Greens do there in the locals, they have some good councillors currently who may get re-elected.

Great, let him continue, sure way to lose votes. Sinn Fein with emergency powers? One shudders.