a United Ireland seems less likely under a Labour Govt.

Long Sean Silver · 06-10-2023 11:21am #1

it was always the case that Irish Republicans saw certain section of the Tory party as the biggest impediment to their glorious ambition of a UI. but the vibes that are coming out of The Labour party after their big by-election victory, would indicate that they may has lost their only real friend in UK politics.

is a UI now further away than ever?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-67020960

Annasopra · 06-10-2023 4:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058317030/a-united-ireland-seems-less-likely-under-a-labour-govt

I think the SNP loss is more damaging to Scottish nationalism than to Irish reunification.

Long Sean Silver · 07-10-2023 2:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121202234#Comment_121202234

Scottish independence was never really on the cards tbf, but I agree it's about as unlikely as a UI for the forseeable. Personally I would not think either is a runner before 2075, and when you see what's happening in Israel perhaps that's a good thing.

_Kaiser_ · 07-10-2023 3:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058317030/a-united-ireland-seems-less-likely-under-a-labour-govt

Certainly hope so. We can't even deal with the massive problems we have now, never mind those that would arise if this actually happened.

Blarney_man · 07-10-2023 4:46pm

It’s a reality, south just have to figure out how to subsidise the North, it will be tough going

hymenelectra · 07-10-2023 4:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121205788#Comment_121205788

There's no two ways about it, the sudden appearance of the extra counties would be an unmitigated disaster for the country as a whole.

It's a nice, fanciful idea given history, but nobody in their right mind would want this to happen now or even in the medium term.

On housing alone, there is an increasing raft of students from the Republic going to university in the North to escape our self-made crisis. Take a walk around one of the cities and it's clear what's missing.

This isn't only from a southern perspective, anyone with their head screwed on in the North could see what would happen too.

Annasopra · 07-10-2023 5:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121206277#Comment_121206277

Indeed. The civil service staffing in NI is huge

Blarney_man · 07-10-2023 5:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121206344#Comment_121206344

SF would solve it in a minute, raise taxes 🤣

end of the road · 08-10-2023 1:40pm

a UI and scottish independence will ultimately happen thankfully.

it's a case of when for both and not if.

the south will not be able to stop irish reunification.

jh79 · 08-10-2023 3:11pm

Emma DeSouza is at the Labour party conference and asked about Starmer comments.

https://twitter.com/EmmaCDeSouza/status/1711029569073914340?t=fQ6Z82i6Am4kfjNDt6QaIw&s=19

Capt'n Midnight · 08-10-2023 3:44pm

We are forecast to get a €16Bn budget surplus next year. Add in EU and US assistance and NI is affordable. Relatively cheap labour doesn't hurt.

About half of the subvention to NI is due to being in the UK / interest on accumulated debt. Stuff like 1.5% of GDP extra being spent on defence. Servicing of a % of UK debt which has increased massively under the Tory government. https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/07/22/would-a-united-ireland-be-affordable/ So the devil is in the detail.

Labour will need to consider that NI sends maybe one or two pro labour SDLP MPs vs. about ten pro Tory DUP MP's. Unless there is a massive change that will outweigh any gains they make in Scotland. (NB Scotland and Wales will have fewer MP's next election and England will have more )

Even if the SNP can't get independence they might be in a position to assist a UI because a visibly improving NI would be a massive argument for independence.

jh79 · 08-10-2023 4:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121209856#Comment_121209856

But the cost of NI wouldn't be a one off expense unlike our recent surpluses. The government has said we shouldn't use it for ongoing expenses like PS pay, taxes etc.

This would be no different. That money will eventually run out given the state NI is in and then what?

Remember unity involves a 30% increase in population with no real increase in GDP.

ejmaztec · 08-10-2023 7:54pm

Someone should carry out a poll to see how many people in NI would actually leave NI and move to the UK in the event of unification. I think that the Scottish population would increase.

Of course some wouldn't leave, they'd just grease their weapons.

Capt'n Midnight · 08-10-2023 8:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121209990#Comment_121209990

NI is relatively cheap for wages and housing. With political stability inward investment would increase.

Thing is we'll have to do it sooner or later. It's like West Germany - East Germany as the gap is more like South Korea - North Korea and worsening.

Labour are king in waiting and aren't rocking the boat. NI is not a hill to die on when it could cost an election. After the election, well that's a different timeline.

a United Ireland seems less likely under a Labour Govt.

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