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a United Ireland seems less likely under a Labour Govt.

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  • 06-10-2023 12:21pm
    #1
    Long Sean Silver
    Registered Users Posts: 569 ✭✭✭


    it was always the case that Irish Republicans saw certain section of the Tory party as the biggest impediment to their glorious ambition of a UI. but the vibes that are coming out of The Labour party after their big by-election victory, would indicate that they may has lost their only real friend in UK politics.

    is a UI now further away than ever?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-67020960



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    #2
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 41,062 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058317030/a-united-ireland-seems-less-likely-under-a-labour-govt

    I think the SNP loss is more damaging to Scottish nationalism than to Irish reunification.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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    #3
    Long Sean Silver
    Registered Users Posts: 569 ✭✭✭Long Sean Silver


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121202234#Comment_121202234

    Scottish independence was never really on the cards tbf, but I agree it's about as unlikely as a UI for the forseeable. Personally I would not think either is a runner before 2075, and when you see what's happening in Israel perhaps that's a good thing.



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    #4
    _Kaiser_
    Registered Users Posts: 28,845 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058317030/a-united-ireland-seems-less-likely-under-a-labour-govt

    Certainly hope so. We can't even deal with the massive problems we have now, never mind those that would arise if this actually happened.



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    #5
    Blarney_man
    Registered Users Posts: 188 ✭✭Blarney_man


    It’s a reality, south just have to figure out how to subsidise the North, it will be tough going



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    #6
    hymenelectra
    Registered Users Posts: 483 ✭✭hymenelectra


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121205788#Comment_121205788

    There's no two ways about it, the sudden appearance of the extra counties would be an unmitigated disaster for the country as a whole.

    It's a nice, fanciful idea given history, but nobody in their right mind would want this to happen now or even in the medium term.

    On housing alone, there is an increasing raft of students from the Republic going to university in the North to escape our self-made crisis. Take a walk around one of the cities and it's clear what's missing.

    This isn't only from a southern perspective, anyone with their head screwed on in the North could see what would happen too.



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    #7
    Annasopra
    Registered Users Posts: 41,062 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121206277#Comment_121206277

    Indeed. The civil service staffing in NI is huge

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



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    #8
    Blarney_man
    Registered Users Posts: 188 ✭✭Blarney_man


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121206344#Comment_121206344

    SF would solve it in a minute, raise taxes 🤣



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    #9
    end of the road
    Registered Users Posts: 29,073 ✭✭✭✭end of the road


    a UI and scottish independence will ultimately happen thankfully.

    it's a case of when for both and not if.

    the south will not be able to stop irish reunification.

    ticking a box on a form does not make you of a religion.



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    #10
    jh79
    Registered Users Posts: 8,262 ✭✭✭jh79


    Emma DeSouza is at the Labour party conference and asked about Starmer comments.

    https://twitter.com/EmmaCDeSouza/status/1711029569073914340?t=fQ6Z82i6Am4kfjNDt6QaIw&s=19




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    #11
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,400 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    We are forecast to get a €16Bn budget surplus next year. Add in EU and US assistance and NI is affordable. Relatively cheap labour doesn't hurt.

    About half of the subvention to NI is due to being in the UK / interest on accumulated debt. Stuff like 1.5% of GDP extra being spent on defence. Servicing of a % of UK debt which has increased massively under the Tory government. https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/07/22/would-a-united-ireland-be-affordable/ So the devil is in the detail.

    Labour will need to consider that NI sends maybe one or two pro labour SDLP MPs vs. about ten pro Tory DUP MP's. Unless there is a massive change that will outweigh any gains they make in Scotland. (NB Scotland and Wales will have fewer MP's next election and England will have more )

    Even if the SNP can't get independence they might be in a position to assist a UI because a visibly improving NI would be a massive argument for independence.



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    #12
    jh79
    Registered Users Posts: 8,262 ✭✭✭jh79


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121209856#Comment_121209856

    But the cost of NI wouldn't be a one off expense unlike our recent surpluses. The government has said we shouldn't use it for ongoing expenses like PS pay, taxes etc.

    This would be no different. That money will eventually run out given the state NI is in and then what?

    Remember unity involves a 30% increase in population with no real increase in GDP.



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    #13
    ejmaztec
    Registered Users Posts: 24,058 ✭✭✭✭ejmaztec


    Someone should carry out a poll to see how many people in NI would actually leave NI and move to the UK in the event of unification. I think that the Scottish population would increase.

    Of course some wouldn't leave, they'd just grease their weapons.



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    #14
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,400 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121209990#Comment_121209990

    NI is relatively cheap for wages and housing. With political stability inward investment would increase.

    Thing is we'll have to do it sooner or later. It's like West Germany - East Germany as the gap is more like South Korea - North Korea and worsening.


    Labour are king in waiting and aren't rocking the boat. NI is not a hill to die on when it could cost an election. After the election, well that's a different timeline.



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