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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,523 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Yes I agree and have asked the question myself of potential SF voters. Not had a reply yet.

    Essentially, I dont see how SF will benefit the average worker in terms of housing access.

    Their policies are aimed at those that qualify for social welfare only and there will be a negative impact on everyone else as a result.

    Its amazing that people arent seeing that, especially the younger folks who have a career ahead of them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,523 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Yes. But same also if they buy for social housing to reduce their social housing waiting lists.

    The homes are still not availble to the private market in that case either.

    The irony is that private developers are building private schemes, which the council then buy (or even worse, rent) and return to everyone EXCEPT the private buyer.

    Same also if the council purchase for rentals.

    The Herbert Hill dev in Dundrum or the Butteryard in Blackrock were built for the private market, but DLR rent them entirely for social.

    Not a single unit amongst them returned to the private market, pushing private rental prices higher, as there is no stock.

    And the govt say they want mixed developments? hmmm...

    Seems to me the priority for the council is to reduce the social housing waiting list at all costs and to hell with the average salaried or above worker.



  • Registered Users Posts: 229 ✭✭danfrancisco83


    How do you get a "lifetime tenancy"?

    Does this mean that this is a council owned house and they are selling? Or is there a literal lifetime tenancy contract that is legally binding? It's a nice looking house (from the outside anyway).

    https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/semi-detached-house-23-orchard-lawns-ballyfermot-dublin-10/5440068



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,512 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    That is the priority and has been since the massive outcry about homeless figures.

    It’s no different to everyone calling for SF to come in and start building social housing because they are disgusted at the HAP payments and believing that it will result in lower rents and more house for sale.

    If there was no-one in emergency accommodation and no increase the overall total new homes built then this would result in the following;

    -negative impact on FTB as less new private properties built

    -positive impact on renters as rental properties are freed up

    -negative impact on renters assuming that the reduction of private builds results in less new rental properties coming to the market

    -positive impact on social housing beneficiaries.

    -positive impact on tourism as hotel rooms get freed up

    -positive impact on people in emergency accommodation

    The only fly in the ointment is that because of the numbers in emergency accommodation any property freed up gets filled by people in emergency accommodation.

    so in reality we end up with:

    -negative impact on FTB as less new private properties built

    -negative impact on renters assuming that the reduction of private builds results in less new rental properties coming to the market

    -positive impact on social housing beneficiaries.

    -positive impact on people in emergency accommodation (Assuming that there isn’t an increase in number of refugees or people becoming homeless as landlords sell up)

    End result any private buyer or renter looking for an increase in social housing ends up in a worse position as they are in today unless the overall number of new houses increases.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,523 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    I see what you are saying and emergency accom is of course playing a large part in taking up any new stream rental accomodation and diverting that stock away from the private market.

    But people on the social housing waiting lists are also being accommodated in govt purchased homes. (new homes, purchased from private developments)

    So even if there was nobody in emergency accom, there are still 10s of thousands on the social wait list.

    Dublin City has 13k on the wait list alone. Thats about the same as the total emergency accom count for the whole country.

    Emergency accom and social wait list combined are certainly hoovering up available rentals new to market and of course, many hotels are taken up with the same cohorts.

    What does need to happen is that the local councils start building their own council homes again, rather than pilfering private stock.

    DLR built 2 social housing units in the whole of 2022....thats a disgrace by anyones standards.

    But I do agree with you and have said it myself that although SF may want to embark on this massive social home building venture, where are they going to get the funds and the labour from, without negativley impacting the 25k-30k private homes that are built each year and are needed.

    I dont think SF have an actual costed plan, nor the answer to that question.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,457 ✭✭✭SharkMX


    Everything about that house screams dont even take it for free.



  • Registered Users Posts: 229 ✭✭danfrancisco83


    I think it looks well kept, so not likely a non-paying tenant or troublesome tenant or anything like that. I think there may be some kind weird tenancy clause thing going on here that I've never heard of.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,433 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    SF have stated that they intend to increase stamp duty to 12.5% on commerical property, to divert labour and capital to residential construction.






    Pearse Doherty has also mentioned "emergency powers".

    That may refer to vacant houses.



    Post edited by Geuze on


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,021 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals



    €1250 for mortgage interest relief and €800 for the rental credit, that'll probably go down like a lead balloon!

    Also, it appears the vacant home tax is being raised from 3x LPT to 5x





  • Registered Users Posts: 3,523 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Thanks.

    Would a 5% increase on Commercial SD make much difference? The Commercial market will fade out after this year anyway due to the over supply of offices.

    I'd be wary of SFs 17% surcharge on resi developments bought by funds.

    If we deter them too much, the building of larger developments becomes less viable for developers and this strategy could easily lead to a slow down in resi developments - especially when you consider the other headwinds of resi development at the moment.

    Not least the cost of building & labour.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭Villa05


    We've moved beyond social housing being a priority, Ffg have made such a mess of this, what should be the priority is build to rent for teachers, SNA's, nurses, guards and all the other professions (public & private) that are required for the smooth running of our country. We are currently loosing these to countries that value them more after spending loads to educate them to that level.

    Call this a thank you scheme for the front line workers we were lauding during Covid but kicking since covid is no longer an issue

    Doing this would add supply in a cash neutral or revenue positive manner for the state, availing of this Lower cost accomodation allows

    Housing security for the beneficiaries

    Allows them to save a deposit for there own property allowing them to move on and make the house available for the next participant

    Participation disqualifies from ftb grant as your getting protected from the private rental sector, saving the state a significant amount plus cooling new house price inflation.

    The state providing btr would flush out the land hoarders, knowing that a competitor adding supply would devalue there land if they continued to sit on it.

    Supplying build to rent only would prevent the state from gifting state assets to private individuals which is of little no value to the taxpayer. I saw a former council house on the examiner newspaper in Kinsale expected to make 1,000,000 at auction.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The only difference between SF and current government Policy is that SF want to use public land so that there budget figures look better in a short media clip. But Once you take into account the land value at market prices you end up in same financial cost to tax payer.

    Are you including the cost of the state having idle or under utilised land and property. There are multiple examples

    Having a significant revenue generating asset on this land would be better than having to pay to secure and maintain land and property that is doing nothing



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Just to be clear I’m not talking about a policy of renting or leasing instead of building because were specifically talking about CRE getting into difficulty and not building BTR

    What the government have been hinting at is providing the funding for apartment complexes that have planning permission but have not yet started.

    If they have not started in a period of 0 interest rates,

    0 tax on investment funds,

    a planning system that is used to increase the value of land rather than get anything built

    Stable prices on materials and labour

    One would have to assume that these projects are severely unviable in current conditions and land prices therefore exposing the taxpayer to potentially enormous losses. This is what I meant by the state being potentially the last fool in the market

    Much better to develop property on the states own land



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,512 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    You should look at SF alternative budget because the extra 7100 units are not all being built on state land. The majority are purchased from existing supply.

    I state units above because 700 the average cost they expect to pay per unit is 165k which would indicate these are 1 bedroom apartments and if they did purchase from the market for social (as stated in their alternative budget) then this 700 equates to 10% of properties advertised in this price bracket no longer being available to private buyers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,717 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump



    Many TDs have rental properties. There probably aren't too many of them trying to buy their first house..............

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,457 ✭✭✭SharkMX


    I think they are trying to make it attractive to new landlords to come into the market as well as for existing ones to stay.

    Its not enough to make either happen though. So maybe that was the plan. Make it look like they are doing something, but make it so useless and hard to get that noone will claim it.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭Villa05


    I'm just proposing solutions, not a spokesperson for SF. Being honest there call last week for mortgage interest relief was the final straw.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,500 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    I think it's likely it will be increased in successive budgets if FF / FG are in Government, this is just a starting point. It will be unpopular enough in some quarters introducing it alone.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Mother of sweet divine Jesus more monty phyton comedy from from the budget

    Help to buy us being extended to those availing of affordable purchase scheme.

    How do they announce this madness and keep a straight face



  • Registered Users Posts: 385 ✭✭SummerK


    Will we ever see 300k ish new house prices for 3-bed in and around cork city ever or is it only in dreams? 400k+ is the norm now for a 3-bed. Affordability is getting worse day after day 😩



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,512 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Just look back to 2005/6 when they abolished it for a year and house market flat lines…reintroduced a year later and price went up.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭Villa05


    With regard to property FFG will not do anything unless it's inflationary. That's been the record for nearly 30 years



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,083 ✭✭✭JohnnyChimpo


    Not a hope unless there's a huge crash again (seems unlikely), at which point unless you have cash on hand you're still gonna be sh1t out of luck



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,523 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Think yourself lucky!

    In Dublin, 400k is a 2 bed apartment.

    Newish 3 bed houses in ok areas are easily 600k, often more.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users Posts: 229 ✭✭danfrancisco83


    you might have to cut your cloth. look for 2 bed houses where the attic can be easily converted, or 3 beds a bit farther out. not ideal but better to be on the ladder paying a 1000 pm mortgage, than renting for 1600 pm



  • Registered Users Posts: 426 ✭✭grumpyperson


    They might find extra workers from the collapsing commercial sector.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,202 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,512 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    It would help if they are building more total housing but from looking at their alternative budget where they plan an extra 7100 social housing units a very large chunk of that is coming from the private market so less houses to rent or buy for anyone that doesn’t qualify for social or affordable housing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 617 ✭✭✭J_1980


    If SF come in the sales market will become exactly like the rental market: zero supply, especially at the lower end. Currently the government is only meddling in the rental market (HAp, social tenants living in far more space than majority of lower end of working-non-social housing population etc).


    government is not the solution to the problem, government is the problem



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  • Registered Users Posts: 487 ✭✭Ozvaldo


    How are we supposed to buy houses when we are competing with local authorities on the prices thus driving them up ?

    All they are interested in is converting these to social housing

    Banana Republic



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