General British politics discussion thread

Seems a bit nearer General Strike to me..

Thought for a second it was the UK version of MAGA

So you won't join Sinn Fein.

^^^but, 'flagshaggery' is such a great word. +1 for that at least.

Nah, I'd find it exceptionally weird here too. Sort of stuff you'd find on the far right parties output

National symbols on a card I wouldn't find weird at all but what I do find pointless is using a card as a canvasing tool when it's only the die hard party members will ever have one anyway.

And also the timing is clearly suspicious.

Starmer promises, 'a decade of renewal'. He's right, the only way is up. If the British people cannot see the difference between him and Johnson, Truss and Sunak, WTF?

To be fair, Starmer has worked quite hard to avoid pointing to any differences between himself and the Tory PM du jour.

Well, I think it's a deliberate tactic. Starmer doesn't want the political discourse to be about him; he wants it to be about the Tories. Objectively, they've been such a truly awful government that, the more attention is focussed on them, the more people talk about them, the worse it is for them. So he's trying to avoid giving them any space to rally the troops or appeal to the uncommitted by attacking him and making the conversation about him.

And, if we go by the opinion polls, it's a tactic that is working pretty well for him.

What Starmer, in 2029, you mean?

Tough one to call, that. Stability may help labour in government compared to the Tory mess. That could get them a 2nd term but who knows what lies ahead.

[You mean 2029, obviously.]

There is a risk that, by not campaigning on distinct policy alternatives, Starmer comes into office without a mandate to do anything radically differently, and so is committed to trying to implement inherently bad Tory policies, just with a tad more competence that the Tories can muster, which of course can't end well. But:

1. I suspect that, closer to the election, Starmer will come out with more policy alternatives.
2. Even to the extent that he doesn't, with his likely large majority he can introduce new policy initiatives without being stymied in Parliament. He will not be penalised by voters for not sticking with the Tory policies that, at the 2024 election, they decisively rejected.

Starmer's real problem will not be a lack of mandate. It will be that there are no possible policy initiatives which can rapidly reverse the cumulative effect of 13 years of increasingly dysfunctional, delusional and dishonest Tory rule. In 2029 the UK will still not be in great shape. The best that Starmer can hope for is that by then there is a sense of having turned a corner, of having begun the climb back.

Possibly one of the reasons for not promoting radical new policies at this stage is that it is difficult to do that and also communicate the message "this will take time to work". By not promoting new policies Starmer avoids creating the impression that he has promised a rapid improvement, and so avoids a sense in 2029 that such a promise was broken.

The other thing that Starmer can hope for in 2029 is that the Tories will still look like a delusional, ungovernable rabble. Right now the party seems to be fully aware that it's going to lose the next election badly, and it's shaping up for an orgy of blame, recrimination and internecine competition as different factions seek to seize control of the party after Sunak has jetted off to a new life in California. With any luck the loonier factions will either seize control, or they will be constantly sniping at and undermining whatever unfortunate does seize control, and the Tories will still not look like a credible alternative government in 2029. There's every prospect that their defeat in 2024 is going to be on a scale that will take at least two terms to recover from.

Historically, it would be unlikely for the next Labour government to only win one election.

Since the war only once (Ted Heath 1970-1974 government) has the new governing party failed to win the next election. Everyone else has got at least a second term of sorts - with some minorities governments, coalitions and confidence/supply arrangements in the mix. But clearly there's a combination of voter patience and incumbent advantage in the system.

Think I've got it factually correct, not the most easy table to read. And it's early!

List of United Kingdom general elections - Wikipedia

yeah, I could only see the likes of the National Party creating a dirty nappy membership card.