Is HVO the EV killer?

MrMusician18 · 18-10-2023 4:27pm #1

HVO or Hydro treated vegetable oil is now becoming available now through the Certa forecourt network so will be available to motorists. Widely considered to be a green fuel, it's manufactured from organic waste streams and has some interesting properties:

It has a higher cetane than derv so burns more cleanly.

It is a drop in replacement for derv with no modifications generally necessary. It can be blended with derv in any ratio.

It has excellent stability, being more stable than derv and traditional bio diesel.

It is however more expensive than derv at the moment.

Widespread use of HVO has the potential to green a huge proportion of the existing transport fleet without much modification to existing infrastructure and it doesn't come with the expense of the limited range of EVs or the brand new infrastructure network they require. So is HVO the answer that policymakers have been looking for? Will it kill the EV?

Hellrazer · 18-10-2023 5:09pm

Good topic for discussion.

It depends on what way you look at it. If you are a Green party supporter no amount of "combustible" product that reduces carbon dioxide emissions will ever satisfy their want for us all to be on bicycles or driving EVs - they dont want us burning anything even if it is cleaner.

If you are a realist then you have to see that there will always be a place for internal combustion engines and reducing those emissions has to be part of a greener world and in my opinion HVO is a huge step in making cars cleaner - more so than anti-pollution systems built into cars exhaust systems.

Next up will by hydrogen fuel. Not for about 10 years though and I can see HVO and other biofuels as a stop gap before fully Hydrogen vehicles appear and hydrogen fuel stations show up.

The current fad for EVs will wind down over the next few years and we`ll be left with tons of used batteries with no way to dispose of them - another crisis - again all in my opinion. Theres already evidence that EV sales are slowing worldwide due to governments reducing supports for them - a trend I feel is only going to continue. A petrol or diesel variant of the same car is usually cheaper without the grants and I see people buying more of these and if they are thinking green using biofuels to reduce their carbon footprint.

My opinion is that HVO should be excise duty free and sold for what it is - a fuel that reduces CO2 by up to 90%.

Diesel drivers should be given the option to use it and even incentivized to use it with lower prices than diesel currently is.

Home users that currently use diesel to heat their homes should also get it at a reduced rate compared to their current options. We have the Green party who want oil / gas boilers banned by 2025 yet we have an option in HVO that will reduce CO2 by 90%

Have you seen how much it costs to get a heat pump installed? Upwards of 40k is what I was quoted - not a hope.

So hopefully someone in government will see the value in biofuels and act accordingly but it wont be the greens - it will someone more forward thinking.

Cyrus · 18-10-2023 5:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058318712/is-hvo-the-ev-killer

in short no.

MrMusician18 · 18-10-2023 5:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121255922#Comment_121255922

In long? We can't have much of a discussion if you don't expand on your argument.

I'm personally an EV owner, but listening to Certas spokesman on the radio yesterday I couldn't but be impressed. This is an entirely drop in green replacement for road diesel with a 90% carbon saving. It has the potential to transform transport and industry, especially in areas where electrification isn't likely, like trucking or agriculture - if we can make enough of it and to be fair that is probably the rub. Can enough be made without diverting land for food.

HVO comes with all the benefits of diesel, such as lighter cheaper vehicles, fast fuelling and long range without the emission drawbacks. Not to mention the greening of the existing fleet. One would have to think it will play a major role, especially coming up to 2030 when electrification targets aren't within an asses roar of being met.

the_amazing_raisin · 18-10-2023 6:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121255978#Comment_121255978

This was discussed in another thread, can't find the link now

In short, HVO and other biofuels are mostly a scam. They don't scale in a cost effective manner and eventually you run out of waste to use, so you either accept a limited level of production or start producing crops for fuel

I read an SEAI study on all biofuels potential in Ireland (including biomass and biogas) and the most optimistic scenario was they could meet 10% of Ireland's electricity demand or 30% of heating

They didn't mention transport but there would be a significant shortfall in available production

If we end up importing biofuels then what's the point?

I don't personally have anything against biofuels produced from waste, but it would be pretty silly to start wasting available land for fuel crops

the_amazing_raisin · 18-10-2023 6:38pm

Here's the SEAI study for anyone interested

https://www.seai.ie/publications/Bioenergy-Supply-in-Ireland-2015-2035-Summary-Report.pdf

liamog · 18-10-2023 6:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121255978#Comment_121255978

Funny you mention the 2030 electrification target. In 5 years (2018 to now) we've gone from a 7% market share to 47% market share of cars that would still be allowed to be sold as new under the 2030 "ban". I don't see any particular difficulty in the market moving to 100% electrified sales by 2030.

Water John · 18-10-2023 7:12pm

HVO should be targeted to the commercial goods fleet not cars.

MrMusician18 · 18-10-2023 7:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121256262#Comment_121256262

The SEAI study states that liquid biofuel production wouldn't be viable without high prices and states that it needs to exceed €24/GJ. The forecourt price of diesel is currently running at about €52/GJ.

I don't think it's fair to be dismissive. I do think we will start to see land here being diverted more and more to fuel crops.

the_amazing_raisin · 18-10-2023 7:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121256432#Comment_121256432

I suspect they also assumed electricity prices would stay where they were when the paper was published, which they haven't to put it mildly

JohnC. · 18-10-2023 7:41pm

"I do think we will start to see land here being diverted more and more to fuel crops."

This is not a good thing, btw.

timmyntc · 18-10-2023 7:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121256319#Comment_121256319

The target is 30% of fleet to be EVs by 2030 though. That target will not be met.

18-10-2023 8:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121255978#Comment_121255978

And soot?

Water John · 18-10-2023 8:08pm

Don't know the particulate matter of HVO. They're are proposals for a lot of Anerobic Digestion plants to plug into the gas grid. These too need feedstock that comes from the land. Another group wants trees on it. A more extreme group want to rewild the land completely. The field can only do so many jobs and they're not making any more of it.

MrMusician18 · 18-10-2023 8:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121256635#Comment_121256635

HVO is less sooty than derv as it has a higher cetane value

mikeecho · 18-10-2023 9:51pm

There is a place on the road for both.

I'll be sticking with HVO100, been using it almost exclusively for a few months.

No noticable downside, other than it's a few cent more expensive, but recently it's been the same or less than diesel.

MrMusician18 · 18-10-2023 10:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121257033#Comment_121257033

Certa are price matching with diesel for the time being but I understand that it's natural price is 10-15% more than derv

Water John · 18-10-2023 10:16pm

Probably better for the health of the occupants, an aspect to be considered.

18-10-2023 10:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121257097#Comment_121257097

Than an EV?

Water John · 18-10-2023 10:27pm

Ah diesel. Two Ev's in the family.

the_amazing_raisin · 19-10-2023 9:54am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121257089#Comment_121257089

That's a pretty massive red flag by itself, and it's worth remembering that restaurants and takeaways pay to have their used oil removed. What happens when they start demanding it gets taken for free, or they want a cut of the profits?

quokula · 19-10-2023 10:48am

So I wasn't too familiar with this and did some reading. It seems the reason the emissions are rated so low is that the crops absorb CO2 when grown, then that CO2 is released at the tailpipe but isn't counted because it is simply releasing what was previously absorbed (though there is some more CO2 on top which is measured, as the fuel is blended). This does make sense in classifying it as largely renewable.

But what if the land was just used to grow food crops that also absorb CO2 but aren't then burned to run vehicles, that would be even better. There are still some unanswered questions about other particulates released as there haven't been enough studies done, and it does nothing for local air quality or noise pollution in towns and cities in the way EVs do.

On the whole however it certainly does seem like a massive jump forward from diesel, albeit at some cost, and it looks like it has a place in helping the transition to cleaner driving.

Hard to see it replacing EVs though given the amount of momentum the shift to electric has right now. As an EV owner I think there isn't enough appreciation of how superior they actually are as cars even if you ignore the environmental case. Silent running, smooth, responsive, usually more space for size of car, always fully charged every morning so no need to queue up at busy petrol stations, much cheaper to run, more reliable, cheaper to service etc

BorneTobyWilde · 19-10-2023 1:33pm

Are the fumes as cancerous

mikeecho · 19-10-2023 5:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121259059#Comment_121259059

Yeah.. very.. you don't want to be around a li-ion fire.

Casati · 19-10-2023 6:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121256319#Comment_121256319

Don't think they will allow petrol or diesel powered cars without a plug in 2030 or 2035 - hybrids without a plug are not electrified sales, they are 100% petrol or diesel powered cars, and often consume more fuel than many diesels today.

Yes volume is up massively but its 27% of passenger cars are ev/ phev's. Its important to note that practically no trucks, tractors are EV's currently too and its really these that the HVO is targeted at

mikeecho · 19-10-2023 6:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121258129#Comment_121258129

What's a red flag ?

Selling a product at a price to entice customers?

On your other point about restaurants refusing to pay for waste oil disposal.. yeah, they could do that, but they would be stuck with a lot of waste oil , waste oil that they are legally obligated to dispose of in a safe manner.

Having a couple of ibcs in the back yard filled with dirty oil.. what happens when they're full.. keep buying ibcs, and keep filling them

Nope.. they have to provide evidence of safe disposal.

Greengrass53 · 19-10-2023 6:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121255902#Comment_121255902

You should be in charge. Everything would be fine then, I'm sure, cos you seem to be omniscient. (in your own little world, this is). 😉

Greengrass53 · 19-10-2023 6:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121258326#Comment_121258326

Spot on

liamog · 19-10-2023 7:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121260160#Comment_121260160

Under the original extremely soft definition hybrids are classed as electrified. It's one of the reasons the target was such an easy headline grab whilst not really promising much at all.

BorneTobyWilde · 19-10-2023 9:05pm

It's okay, it's okay, it's running on HVO, a crop growing in the middle of nowhere 2 years ago, absorbed this CO2 👍️👍️👍️

the_amazing_raisin · 19-10-2023 9:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121260201#Comment_121260201

It's a red flag because they're selling it at a loss. Generally speaking you can't do that long term

I see your point regarding disposal, but what I'm trying to get across is that if your business model depends on being paid by your suppliers and customers then it's a bit shaky to start with

A disruption on one end would have a knock on effect to the other

Anyway, if it isn't cost competitive with diesel then it certainly isn't going to be able to compete with electricity

Considering Mercedes and Volvo are rolling out heavy duty trucks that can carry the same as a diesel truck and travel 500km without a recharge, then it's pretty easy to see where the world is going

Biofuels will have their place, but it'll be in niche markets like remote power generation or maybe farm and plant equipment

the_amazing_raisin · 19-10-2023 9:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121260862#Comment_121260862

Tis grand sure, just try not to think about the CO2 that was disturbed by tillage, or what was fueling the farm machinery that harvested it or the trucks that brought it to the processing plant and then the petrol station

It's alllllll powered by HVO, hopefully 😜

MrMusician18 · 19-10-2023 9:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121260917#Comment_121260917

There is a huge problem with electrifying trucking. Trucks are typically on the road for 9 hrs a day which leaves 15 hours for recharging. Mercedes are estimating a range of 500km for their trucks and they have 600kWh batteries. Trucks only make money on the road so that means every day they will draw just less than 50kW while on rest periods on average. When I was in Cashel one night I saw about 30 trucks overnighting. That's 1.5MW of charging at the absolute minimum speed. That's the equivalent infrastructure for a thousand houses.

The reality is that bare minimum won't be enough and a place like Cashel might need 5-10 MW of power available. Similarly trucking companies who stable their vehicles will need huge substations.

Electrification of trucking won't happen in a big way unless the energy density of batteries improves in a major way to reduce the frequency of visits to chargers.

HVO on the other hand is ideal for trucking.

Casati · 19-10-2023 9:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121260547#Comment_121260547

The SEAI roadmap disagrees - its clearly full ev or phev? https://www.seai.ie/publications/Electric-Vehicle-Roadmap.pdf

Hellrazer · 19-10-2023 9:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121260222#Comment_121260222

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121260229#Comment_121260229

Never said I knew everything -If you actually bothered to read my post I said it was my opinion. But at least Im trying to discuss it rather than pipe in with off the cuff comments.

Lets hear your take on it as it is a "discussion" forum.

the_amazing_raisin · 19-10-2023 10:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121260983#Comment_121260983

Those Mercedes trucks you mentioned are designed for MCS charging systems, they can recharge 500km if range in 30 mins when connected to a 1.2MW charger

As for recharging 30 trucks overnight, that's the equivalent power of a single Ionity hub and there's already one of those in Cashel

I suspect the business case for truck charging is a lot easier since they can't just charge overnight on AC like us car owners

Yes, it's a big investment and I suspect it'll take a while to get off the ground, but there's already considerable interest from a lot of large fleet operators in battery powered trucks

Hellrazer · 19-10-2023 10:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121260921#Comment_121260921

Tis grand sure - also try not to think about the CO2 produced by the multiples of heavy machinery involved in mining lithium, digging it up out of the ground, trucking the ore to the processing and then trucking the batteries to vehicle manufacturers -- all powered by EV hopefully !!!!

the_amazing_raisin · 19-10-2023 10:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121261125#Comment_121261125

I'm pretty sure there's at least one train in there as well 😉

There's a company in Wicklow converting diesel mining equipment to electric, so there might be some hope yet

Hellrazer · 19-10-2023 10:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121261146#Comment_121261146

Why convert it to electric when we have HVO!!! Cheaper and no modifications needed.

To be completely honest heavy machinery / home and business heating / heavy industry is exactly where HVO should be targeted until there is enough of it out there for the ordinary driver to be able to buy it cheaper than diesel.

Look at Electric Picnic this year - everything was run on HVO - The Ploughing championships was the same and the Irish Open. Dublin airport switched all their ground support vehicles over to HVO last week. Dublin port did the same last year with their port vehicles.

Theres a place for it within heavy use fleets to substantially reduce their CO2 footprint in a very short time.

liamog · 19-10-2023 11:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121261056#Comment_121261056

I don't see any information in that document talking about the planned non electrified sales ban, the ban wasn't a proposal by the SEAI.

Greengrass53 · 19-10-2023 11:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121261095#Comment_121261095

Well don't be so definitive about stuff in future. You speak as if you're clairvoyant. Do you know anything about EVs? apart that is from your opinion about them and their imminent demise.

Hellrazer · 20-10-2023 6:02am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121261346#Comment_121261346

Never said I was clairvoyant. Ive been in the motor trade for coming up on 30 years now. Ive been at EV launches, gone through technical training , driven a lot of EVs and my next car will probably be an EV as I recently had solar fitted.

ive had one as company vehicle for 7 months. So you could say I know a small but about them.

My post was my own opinion based on what Ive read about and whats upcoming in the next decade or so within the motor industry. The truth is EV sales are starting to slow world wide as governments cut grants. Hydrogen technology will happen but its at least a decade away and thats when EVs will become obsolete.

Ive been following HVO for a while now and see it as a big step to reduce CO2 emissions.

Greengrass53 · 20-10-2023 6:47am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121261520#Comment_121261520

Fair enough. I apologise for interpreting your original post incorrectly. I got the impression that you were dissing EVs unfairly. Let's hope you're correct about hydrogen etc cos we certainly cannot continue with our heads in the sand and pretend that it's all in eamon Ryan's head. Cheers

MojoMaker · 20-10-2023 7:01am

Of course he was dissing EVs unfairly, but he certainly softened your cough @Greengrass53 😂

Hellrazer · 20-10-2023 7:43am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121261577#Comment_121261577

Not at all dissing them. My next car I purchase will be EV. But the reality is there will always be a place for ICE - theres no getting away from that fact.

And looking at them with the motor trade glasses on I still find myself on the fence about the huge wholesale adoption of EVs - just look at the amount of battery and battery related recalls on them. Thats not good. Then theres the fact that EVs need weeks of training to work on safely.

I recently had a discussion with a government department about this very fact and asked that they look at this because its only a matter of time before someone in a fast fit type setup gets one in for a service / brakes etc and doesnt know how to isolate the HV system and either cuts a cable or drills into a cable and dies.My suggestion was for EV servicing and repairs to have a similar setup to RECI or RGI and certs issued for working on them.

So forgive me if Ive come across as "dissing them" its not my intention at all. I just feel that as a whole we need to look at other alternatives as well and not put all our eggs in the one basket.

liamog · 20-10-2023 7:47am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121261520#Comment_121261520

Hydrogen transportation tech is like nuclear fusion, it always seems like it's more than a decade away and has been since the 90's. At this point it just doesn't make sense for private transport and is increasingly being marginalised for heavier transport by developments by developments in charging technology.

Greengrass53 · 20-10-2023 8:09am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121261577#Comment_121261577

He wasn't. That's the whole point of my apology.

*Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than speak and remove all doubt "😉

Greengrass53 · 20-10-2023 8:11am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121261639#Comment_121261639

E

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121261639#Comment_121261639

No. Forgive me for jumping in head first.

RoboRat · 20-10-2023 8:37am

It's another step in the right direction, but is it an EV killer? I don't think so. It still produces emissions - for every 1,000 litres of diesel burned, you will produce 3.6 tonnes of greenhouse gas CO2, compared to just 195kg GHG CO2 for every 1,000 litres of HVO burned. If you run an EV on 100% renewables, there are no emissions (I know that most EVs are not run on 100% renewables). The average car using 100% HVO will still emit around 390kg of C02 annually (10L per 100km / 20,000 km p/a).

I know some will retort with the fact that making batteries is not environmentally friendly, but let's be honest, making cars in general is not environmentally friendly. HVO also has to undergo a hydrotreating process which is energy-intensive as it typically takes place between 300 – 390°C. It's also more expensive than diesel, and that will be a big detractor. It's also not widely available, so it will probably be used to supplement, rather than as the main fuel source.

Is it a good thing? Absolutely. Some people have a complete loathing for EVs and this gives a viable alternative. Anything that reduces C02 is a good thing IMO.

magicbastarder · 20-10-2023 8:41am

i might have missed it in a link - what is the global capacity at the moment to produce this fuel without dedicating agricultural land to its production?

liamog · 20-10-2023 9:24am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121261841#Comment_121261841

More importantly the car running HVO is still going to be emitting NOX and other tailpipe emissions at the point of use. The move to zero emissions vehicles is as much about improvements to local air quality as it is reducing CO2 emissions. It's much better for us to concentrate CO2 at a central plant where we can install expensive carbon capture than it is for it to be burned in 1000s of mobile boxes sitting outside schools.

Is HVO the EV killer?

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