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Donald Trump discussion Thread IX (threadbanned users listed in OP)

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    #3842
    VinLieger
    Registered Users Posts: 17,947 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121254351#Comment_121254351

    Can you link the 538 polls your looking at as I didn't see any evidence of this.



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    #3843
    Glencarraig
    Registered Users Posts: 1,464 ✭✭✭Glencarraig


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121191783#Comment_121191783

    Is it not the case that an indicted person cannot be speaker???



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    #3844
    salmocab
    Registered Users Posts: 11,340 ✭✭✭✭salmocab


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121254351#Comment_121254351

    One is running a campaign one is running a country. It’s too far out for this to mean anything



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    #3845
    amandstu
    Registered Users Posts: 3,506 ✭✭✭amandstu


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121254794#Comment_121254794

    I don't know.Probably academic .If he can't get his quislings elected it is unlikely he could get elected himself.



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    #3846
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,444 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121254720#Comment_121254720
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/


    Some of the latest polls have it a fairly mixed bag with Trump appearing to be far more competitive than you might expect.

    But as others have said , it's a year out , Biden isn't campaigning and most of the polls are with "registered voters" and not "likely voters"



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    #3847
    VinLieger
    Registered Users Posts: 17,947 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121255158#Comment_121255158

    Ahh that makes sense, registered only this far out is pointless



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    #3848
    odyssey06
    Registered Users Posts: 29,368 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Plus when you throw a wild card like RFK Jnr into the mix you could have a third party candidate who hurts one or the other of the main candidates - and the indications is that once you look past the surname, he will take more votes from Trump.

    A lot of the polls don't factor that in.

    I saw this posted elsewhere on Boards:

    https://www.mediaite.com/politics/whoa-new-poll-shows-rfk-jr-siphoning-more-votes-from-trump-than-biden/

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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    #3849
    VinLieger
    Registered Users Posts: 17,947 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121255273#Comment_121255273

    Indeed the initial assumption that he was Democrat therefore would siphon more from Biden has been debunked once more people become aware of his policies which far more align with Trumps



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    #3850
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,444 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121255323#Comment_121255323

    If Kennedy actually stays in the race through to the actual Election and Trump is running I think he gives a lot of "Never Trump" types a voting out that they might not have had.

    A chunk of the "hold you nose" votes might shift to him instead of Trump.

    But I'm not convinced he stays in the race to be honest.



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    #3851
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,308 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Was it Ross Perot who handed an election to ... Clinton? Or Bush? I seem to recall the last prominent 3rd party candidate was Perot & he had a bit of an effect. Apologies for not ... well, googling the answer lol.



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    #3852
    VinLieger
    Registered Users Posts: 17,947 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121255345#Comment_121255345

    Yeah I cant see how he gets the money to stay relevant until Nov next year



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    #3853
    odyssey06
    Registered Users Posts: 29,368 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121255349#Comment_121255349

    Ross Perot, it's a bit tricky disentangling what effect he had. Polls showed voters who voted for Perot split evenly between those who otherwise would have leaned Democrat or Republican.

    But, in a state by state breakdown, that translated into swinging couple of states to Clinton (per below article):

    He probably did flip states like Montana and Nevada to Clinton; his impact in larger Midwestern states is harder to gauge.

    This article makes some interesting points that he his main impact was to shift the debate in such a way as to hurt Bush and help Clinton. Perot was attacking Bush more, gave Clinton time to find his feet.

    Strategically and tactically, Perot made the election easier for Clinton well before people registered their opinions at the polls. Strategically, he remade our political coalitions. In this telling, he broke off a chunk of the Reagan coalition – younger, deficit-minded, culturally moderate voters. Once these voters were persuaded not to vote for Bush, they naturally flipped over to Clinton when Perot re-entered the race. Only some of them later returned to the Republican coalition over the course of the decade. Tactically, Perot forced Bush into a two-front war at a time where he needed to be hammering away at a badly wounded Clinton campaign. He also elevated issues that were unfavorable for the Republican, most notably the deficit.

    https://www.aei.org/articles/dont-know-whether-perot-cost-bush/

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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    #3854
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users Posts: 13,386 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121255349#Comment_121255349

    Ralph Nader also regarded as a factor in Gore v GW Bush in 2000.

    2.9M votes country wide (about 2.7%) was impressive enough by a 3rd party candidate, but his biggest effect may have been in the ultimately decisive state of Florida. Bush won by >600, Nader polled 97K and his progressive/liberal/green agenda (by US, not European standards) would likely have split towards Al Gore in a pure 2-horse race.



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    #3855
    Dohnjoe
    Registered Users Posts: 17,914 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    22 votes against Jim Jordan for speaker in the second round. Glimmer of hope growing that the GOP won't get that insurrection supporting, election denying, "legislative terrorist" in as speaker.



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    #3856
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,074 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121255353#Comment_121255353


    Tech bros like him to be fair.

    However yeah ultimately I don't know if he hurts either that much , Trumpers like him but why would they vote for him when their Messiah is right their....and while he has some name recognition with Dem's , I don't think the name is that relevant in 2023.



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    #3857
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,444 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121256105#Comment_121256105

    A true "Trump" voter isn't going to vote for him , but I think he potentially gives a GOP voter who can't bring themselves to vote for Trump (or at least would really prefer not to) an exit path.

    They can vote for Kennedy but still vote GOP down ballot and can feel "good" about themselves.



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    #3858
    duploelabs
    Registered Users Posts: 11,269 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121256105#Comment_121256105

    He takes the anti-fauci vote, and that's a fair contingent of Trump voters



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    #3859
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,567 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121255917#Comment_121255917

    Hooray, the cowards realised they weren't going to be alone and found a facsimile of a backbone to vote against him.

    It's a good outcome, but its a piss poor process.



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    #3860
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,184 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121254357#Comment_121254357

    Again, it’s aggregate polling from 538. So pretty reliable.


    after 4 years of Trump and the last 3 years of absolute madness, Biden should be a lock. But the polls aren’t showing this. It’s very worrying.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




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    #3861
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,184 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    I’ll be clear about my point. It doesn’t matter about the minutiae of how the polls were done, or who took the polls, Biden should be miles ahead EVERYWHERE given Trumps behaviour. But someone he’s in with a reasonable chance of winning. It’s mental.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




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    #3862
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,466 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121257100#Comment_121257100

    US doesn't work like that though. Remember when Roy Moore narrowly lost?

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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    #3863
    VinLieger
    Registered Users Posts: 17,947 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121257100#Comment_121257100

    Where have you been for the last 8 years? I'm not kidding, have you only just started paying attention to how polarised US politics has become?



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    #3864
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,645 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121257989#Comment_121257989

    One could conclude that the USA is heading for a civil war. How did the last one work out?



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    #3865
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,299 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121258179#Comment_121258179

    It would end up very one sided if it would somehow go down that route this time around; I can't see a significant majority of the military siding with the side not in government (and I'm talking real government, not Trump's "stolen election I'm really the president") even if they may be R leaning in general (and let's be honest it's mainly the extreme right wing running around playing military wannabies). Individuals and maybe up to platoon level yes; regiments etc. no. And no matter how much the paramilitary groups like to play in the forest at being soldiers the simple fact is they would be donkey punched so quickly if they tried it would not even be funny. Sure; they could take over some town in the middle of nowhere or cause some chaos ala 6th January but actually succeed in a military coup and place "insert other side candidate" in power without significant chunk of the military on their side is simply not going to happen and I think they would get a nasty surprise when arrested ala Brazil coup attempt.



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    #3866
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,074 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121256245#Comment_121256245

    Few Trump supporters care about that though bar hyper online people,Trump promised to lock up Hilary, build a wall and yeah that didn't work out and lost no support. Trump supporters for the most part are all in and simply don't care about his politics they are their for the show.

    If political consistency mattered RDS would not be dead.

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121256168#Comment_121256168

    Those voters probably would lean RDS and to a lesser extent Haley in the primary wont like RFK though because for them he is to left wing. RDS got hammered from conservative media who normally fawn over him when he tried to play footsie with him on the vaccines.

    I'd be worried from a Trump POV about a small percentage of RDS supporters sitting out the election, because the primary has been very ugly. Trump's team have sunk very low with Ron, some suggesting that even his wife faked cancer, obviously when Trump wins the primary they will likely make up but some of those supporters who like Ron for his conservative governing may not be on board.

    It doesn't help either we have the crazy scenario of the house, where it seems the GOP congress members are more concerned about putting on a show and getting attention rather than the boring nitty and gritty governing.

    However their is a million variable atm, Cornell West and no label crew also involved could cause havoc also.



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    #3867
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,184 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121257989#Comment_121257989

    Polarisation is completely par for the course.


    Again, I can’t stress this enough, Trump is winning swing voters who ARE NOT GOP voters.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




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    #3868
    Brian?
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,184 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121257682#Comment_121257682

    I know. That was in a deep red state though. People stayed loyal to their party. Trump and Biden are neck in swing states. Look at the latest polling in Pa.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




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    #3869
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,444 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121259311#Comment_121259311

    No matter how utterly appalling the candidate there will never be more than a few percentage points in the difference in a US Presidential race.

    If Trump runs , his absolute minimum share of the vote will be 47/48%.

    That's just the reality of how utterly broken the place is.

    People are so entrenched in their positions , that a Criminal Insurrectionist , Swindling , Racist , Rapist POS will still get almost 50% of the vote in the US just because he has GOP beside his name on the ballot.

    Once again , at the absolute outside there will be ~150k votes across 4 or 5 States that make the difference in whether Donald Trump gets elected.



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    #3870
    Hoop66
    Registered Users Posts: 2,355 ✭✭✭Hoop66


    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/19/sidney-powell-guilty-plea-trump-georgia-elections

    Given that she's on probation for the next 6 years and has agreed to testify truthfully against her co-conspirators I'd say Trump is not a happy bunny today.



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    #3871
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,580 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121259430#Comment_121259430

    Trump is screwed. The only way he could have been saved is if people held the line under loyalty to him. That is now all falling apart. Trump has already admitted that the decision to go with the stolen election narrative was his so he cannot even claim that he was taken advantage of or something similar.

    As has been clear from the outset, Trump is not relying on actually winning any of the cases. He is relying on enough people being convinced that it is all a conspiracy against him that they are willing to ignore the facts and go to battle for him regardless. So far it is working.

    The question is whether the legal system can deal with that.



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