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"Green" policies are destroying this country

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  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    First of all, the RCP 8.5 scenario is the emissions pathway we are currently the closest to, and we are seeing warming, and changes to the global climate very similar to what we would expect by now under RCP 8.5

    The only reason it's seen as unlikely in the long term, is because it assumes the government's of the world will reign in fossil fuel use and everyone won't just take your 'why can't someone else to it?' position

    Your opinion on 'The amount of spending being proposed' is exaggerated, and ignores the return on the investment that these expenditures will provide.

    The costs of doing nothing are severe from a political and economic POV as well as an environmental one. These are all changes that we need to make eventually. We can begin investing now, or put them on the long finger and be forced to do them more expensively later on.

    Failing to meet our agreed targets will eventually lead to large fines and expensive carbon offsetting, and continuing to rely on imported fossil fuels will be an anchor on the Irish economy and a burden on households and the exchequer through subsidies paid to help pay for the high and variable costs of fossil fuels.

    We're looking down the barrel of another oil crisis if the Middle East continues to destabilise. Every kilowatt of electricity that goes into a BEV battery insulates us a little more from that instability while building infrastructure that connects us to the grids of our political and economic allies, reduces our need to pander to despotic states in Russia and the Middle East.

    Apart from some controversial measures relating to the size of the national herd, what spending do you believe is actually harmful to the economy?

    (also bearing in mind that the EU ultimately pays for every cow grazing on Irish pasture through the CAP so refusing to meet our EU targets could bring us into conflict with that down the line)

    Your 'why can't someone else do it' strategy makes even less sense when faced with the reality that we are one of the wealthiest countries in the world with one of the highest emissions per capita, so if we're claiming we can't afford to take action, then you have to grant that no other country can either, in which case we're dooming the world to burning every last drop of proven oil reserves and the carnage that will result from that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    If we burn all of the world's proven reserves of Oil, well end up with 1400ppm of Co2. Enough for catastrophic climate change

    https://mahb.stanford.edu/library-item/what-if-we-burn-all-the-fossil-fuels/



  • Registered Users Posts: 596 ✭✭✭deholleboom


    You can clearly see why people hold on to the dogma of 'overwhelming evidence' and worst case scenario modelling to keep the fear high in order to be able to put in the most stringent measures.

    The laughable thing is that they then try to convince non believers by flaunting their ignorance in their face like an evangelical on a mission from God to save the souls of the infidels. Worse, actually as they claim to have ironclad proof of this w 'settled science'. As if you can't produce credible counter facts. There is a whole list of them after which one HAS to admit that the effect of Co2 on temperature is at least doubtful and questionable..

    And added to that is the whole question of a slight warming being a bad or a good thing even if one accepts the effects of Co2.

    But that is something this climate alarm house of cards cannot tolerate. Pathetic..



  • Registered Users Posts: 435 ✭✭Coolcormack1979


    Half of all the raw sewage in Ireland going into rivers and lakes according to the epa.just blame farming and be done with it.why publish reports when there is a sector to blame for it anyway



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,594 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    Alarmist alert: James Hansen sighting, Hansens track record courtesy of Tony Heller.


    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 562 ✭✭✭InAtFullBack


    The tables contain data that is available on the met.ie page linked and is presented by Syranbruen as stated earlier when you queried. You won't find the tables on met.ie - you will however, find the data used within those tables.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    We should plan for the plausible worst case scenario

    There are lots of uncertainties about how humans and the environment will react to increasing CO2 emissions, so it is extremely prudent to keep CO2 levels below a 'safe' increase

    That safe increase was from 280ppm to 300ppm, but we crossed that threshold decades ago, so now we're into damage limitation. The next 'acceptable risk' threshold is 1.5c of warming. We're likely to exceed this this year although it will likely go under that again when the La Nina returns, but by the end of the decade, we're almost certainly to have exceeded the 'acceptable risk' level of warming

    2c is then the target we are aiming for to 'have a chance' to avoid 'the worst consequences'

    You can come on here and claim scaremongering or excessive vigilance if we were anywhere near close to meeting the targets to prevent dangerous climate change. But we're way off target.

    The scientific community are expressing alarm at the speed that climate change is progressing, and many of of the worlds most highly respected scientists in the field are expressing concern that models and consensus projections have actually been too conservative in relation to how sensitive natural systems are to changes in temperature


    "Beyond extreme weather events, have the impacts of our current level of warming been underestimated?Here the answer is clear: yes, they have. Compared with earlier assessments, the risks of serious impacts “increase to high and very high levels at lower global warming levels” states the 2022 IPCC report on climate impacts.This change is simply because the observed impacts so far are already more severe than expected. For instance, coral bleaching and die-off events have been more extensive, as have mass tree deaths.In fact, not only are the impacts worse, the report says, societies are also turning out to be more vulnerable to these effects than thought and adapting to a warmer world is proving harder than thought. “What we can do is limited,” says Forster. “There’s lots of evidence that when people have tried to adapt, this has been insufficient or has not been done in an appropriate way.”When it comes to future consequences, for sea level rise in particular, IPCC projections have got higher and higher over the years. The 2021 IPCC report says that a global rise of nearly 2 metres by 2100 can’t be ruled out if emissions are very high, whereas its 2007 report had 0.6 metres as the highest possible by 2100."



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    There are 108 thousand people emitting sewage in Ireland every day?

    Obviously there should be zero raw sewage emitted into our waterways and coasts. But claiming half of our sewage is untreated is completely wrong



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Proven charlatan, fraud and liar, blogger and youtuber, Tony Heller makes more false and misleading claims against one of the most highly experienced and respected climatologists in the world.

    For example, his graph alluded that there was no decline in arctic sea ice in over a decade


    Post edited by Akrasia on


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,554 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    @Akrasia ,

    (also bearing in mind that the EU ultimately pays for every cow grazing on Irish pasture through the CAP so refusing to meet our EU targets could bring us into conflict with that down the line)

    This is 100% incorrect. CAP is based on land and environmental work done on land can increase payments. It has nothing to do with cows. Or sheep or goats or any animal for that matter. If every animal was taken off the land in the morning, the CAP payments would remain the same. CAP was decoupled from livestock long ago and is based on land area. CAP used to be about food security and food quality, now it's about the environment. BISS is paid at a flat rate per ha (though varies from farm to farm), and then top ups are available by committing to various environmental schemes.

    You see the likes of Orban in Hungary, or Dyson in the UK when they were in the EU getting huge EU CAP payments. It isn't because they ran huge herds of cows. Coolmore Stud claim millions every year and have 0 cows, mainly all tillage.

    Perhaps you'd like to correct the record here with your statement being wrong



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Is there a reason to not link to said presentation?



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,973 ✭✭✭✭elperello


    Still can't see farmers picketing the embassy.

    There's still a lot of money in agri exports to China.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,973 ✭✭✭✭elperello


    It's wrong to blame farmers for all water pollution.

    All sectors, local authorities, industry and households have to clean up their act too.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,554 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    Doesn't seem that oil usage is going to decline at the rate expected. Though those saying this are oil people. The outcome is probably somewhere in the middle. No big switch, and no big growth



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    Investment in new oil & gas resources (especially among Western oil companies) is following a net zero path.

    Oil demand is not following a net zero path.

    No wonder Chevron & ExxonMobil are buying up proven reserves given such a mismatch will keep prices elevated.



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    I haven't been following CAP reforms too closely, so if my information on this is out of date, then I'm happy for you to correct me on that

    Methane emissions from livestock is a genuine controversy, especially in Ireland where we don't have much intensive beef production, so our overall carbon intensity from dairy and beef should be relatively low compared with other countries



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,554 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    Fair play acknowledging the incorrect assumption.

    Methane is a natural occurring thing with ruminant animals. And if animal numbers don't increase, methane doesn't increase as the methane is released, converted to CO2, captured by grasslands, etc, eaten and released out again as methane. All part of the biogenic cycle. Since 1973, cattle numbers in Ireland have risen by ~300k head, or 4%. If methane emissions have grown by more, then it's not the cattle that are responsible.

    In Ireland, agriculture is pinpointed as the biggest carbon polluter. The UK, who have less regulations on things than here (they are up in arms over there now over new environmental regulations coming via Red Tractor, they don't have the same slurry requirements either) say that agriculture pollutes less of a % than here, even though both jurisdictions are working in the same climate (grass based predominately). The difference is the UK have oil and gas reserves they drill for, they have a bigger manufacturing sector. This means the percentages per sector differ. We do produce milk almost better than anyone in the world with less carbon emitted. Beef sector is in the worlds top 10. Ya don't hear this on the news and the direction of travel is to curtail production here when the FAO are predicting demand to continue growing. This means production moving to less sustainable areas, more rainforests cut down, more indoor housing for livestock resulting in more land used for animal feeds instead of people.



  • Registered Users Posts: 843 ✭✭✭m2_browning


    green policies sure are ruining other countries

    Germany after spending a trillion euro and somehow ending up polluting more co2 and now this



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Shoog


    If we have slipped to the level of using James Henson as a reputable source it's time to pack up and go home.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,554 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    €129bn needs to be invested between now and 2030 for the transition according to Davy

    This must be a joke. Ireland Inc. don't have €18.5bn a year to invest in this



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    This is the important bit

    The private sector will account for 85% or close to €110bn of the planned investment, of which €97bn will come from debt/savings and €13bn from equity.

    Private spending also includes consumer spending of €57bn on electric vehicles and on home retrofitting. Public expenditure of €18bn will account for 14% of the total, equating to almost €2.6bn.

    For all the many reasons previously discussed, it makes sense to do this.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,554 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    Private sector involvement means consumers pay for it directly via higher prices (cover private sector costs plus profits)



  • Registered Users Posts: 843 ✭✭✭m2_browning


    Just look at how all that wind already resulted in doubling of the electric prices

    The excuse for a while was “but the war” except gas prices are lower than before the war now



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    So you want it all to come from the exchequer then? This would not make it free



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,554 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    Nope. I'd rather it spread out over a much longer timeframe. If the aim is 2050, why are we talking about spending €130bn in the next 7 years to achieve the same goals? The exchequer needs to fund a chunk of this, be that infrastructure, grids, grants, etc. Bear in mind that the exchequer gets money from more than the people so the cost per inhabitant/consumer would be lower.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,594 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande



    Your graph proves that Mr. Hellers observation is indeed correct. Mr. Hansen claimed the Arctic would be ice free in a defined timeline, this has not happened. Both you and Mr Hansen that have a credibility problem in that regard.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Do you still see this happening by next Tuesday?



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    85% of this comes from Private investment. And of that, the vast majority will actually save money over the medium to long term.

    Paying to improve energy efficiency in buildings, or buying a BEV instead of a Diesel/Petrol car will very often save the user money compared with the the alternative

    Is the 53bn spend on electric cars 57bn extra compared to what would be spent on ICE cars over the same 6 year period?

    Will the money spent on home improvements assuming that home owners would never retrofit older houses with better energy efficiency over the course of 6 years?

    Not according to the article you linked to

    Most of that money would have been spent anyway.

    And not spending the additional money would be more expensive


    It is not at all helpful to quote a headline figure of €18.5bn a year and say we can't afford that without looking at both sides of the balance sheet, and the costs of doing nothing



  • Registered Users Posts: 843 ✭✭✭m2_browning


    And where do “Private Investors” get money from and more importantly why would they do this

    That’s right because the can milk gullible Irish population to not only pay for their investments but turn a profit

    In meantime in US the government is investing into energy infrastructure



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Talk to me about the kindness and charity of Shell, CircleK, etc towards the Irish taxpayer

    Or is it only an issue if the investment in question reduces emissions?



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