Leinster Team Talk Thread (Love you Furlong time)

Dubinusa · 24-10-2023 12:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121277829#Comment_121277829

18 point favorites! Wow. Can't see anything but a loss. Hoping for a lbp.

Not concerned about our standing and I am chuffed to see young lads getting minutes. I am concerned about Clarkson. His confidence must be extremely low. He needs to show something and soon.

ulsteru20s · 24-10-2023 1:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121277898#Comment_121277898

You guys were favorites vs Glasgow so i assume they think the sharks have a comparatively less full strength side than them, and its a home game. Seems high to me as well but who knows.

Its possible they think that they will also be able to name a slightly stronger side.

I didn’t think that leinster team was a scratch side by any means either. I think Munster played the same number of academy players. It is possible too much of that inexperience is concentrated in the front row though.

Sheep Shagger · 24-10-2023 2:17pm

Leinster's away allocation for La Rochelle is now available using the link emailed to STHs.

Clegg · 24-10-2023 4:23pm

The latest injury update isn't great. Cian Healy injured his shoulder in training last week and will be out for a while longer. Luke McGrath and John McKee require scans after picking up injuries against Glasgow.

Martin Molony is back after his knee injury. Hopefully he has made a full recovery. He's someone that's a proper dog on the pitch. Could use him back.

https://www.leinsterrugby.ie/moloney-returns-to-training-ahead-of-bkt-urc-home-opener/

RichieRich_89 · 24-10-2023 4:30pm

Who would Moloney play instead of? As it is they had 5 backrowers - including two opensides ahead of him in the pecking order there - in the XXIII for Glasgow.

McGrath doesn't seem like that big of a loss, the way he's playing. Foley and Murphy are good options.

El Vino · 24-10-2023 5:35pm

Might be some money to be made betting against Leinster before Irish players return as the bookies seem to be basing odds on historic results rather than current squad strength.

arsebiscuits1 · 25-10-2023 10:47am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121277829#Comment_121277829

That spread fills me with a bit more hope. As the saying goes - "how often do you see a poor Bookie?"

They're wrong frequently. They're rarely wrong twice.

Leinster are also the perennial slow starters. Something that has been a recurring theme over Leos tenure. Maybe it's to do with usually having away games to start?

Last season we nearly chucked it away against Zebre conceding 5 tries with the result being 33-29

Season before that we beat Dragons away in one of the all time classics (ahem....) 7-6 not scoring any points from the 12th minute on.

Season before that was breaking the mould beating Dragons well 35-5 but it was a home game. (We also Keenan, Ringrose, Lowe, Sexton, JGP, Kelleher, Fardy, Ryan, VDF, Conan, Healy, Porter and Byrne in the squad which definitely was the biggest factor as the Summer internationals were all cancelled with Covid)

Season before that we helped ourselves to a pretty narrow 32-27 win against Benetton which was in the balance until at 75th minute pen from a debutant Harry Byrne

Season before that we snuck a 33-32 win away to Cardiff with an impressive comeback and a 78th minute Brian Byrne try and Ross Byrne con to steal it.

Undoubtedly this showing against Glasgow was the worst opener we've had in recent years but Leinster have always bounced back with a very strong showing in our first home fixture. I choose to believe this will happen again!

arsebiscuits1 · 25-10-2023 11:02am

On the above point.... totally irrelevant but still interesting to see.

Our aggregate score for those first away games are 105-94 in Leinsters favour.

Our aggregate score for the first home games following these away games.... 190-32

Bookies clearly weighting Leinsters historical form in their odds which may change when they see a sub academy hooker on the bench. But I still remain hopeful.

(One slight note, 18/19 season the fixture following the Blues away win was a trip to Scarlets which we lost 23-21 which kind of reenforces the point of slow starts with away fixtures)

You have to go back to 2013 to find the last time Leinster didn't win their first home game - 29 all draw against Ospreys with them scoring a pen last kick of the game

And you have to go back to 2003 to find the last time Leinster lost their first home game - 15-8 to Munster.

sydthebeat · 25-10-2023 12:53pm

it is really irrelevant though to be going back 3 or 4 years to argue bookies spread betting. Just go back one season for a much better reflection of probability.

the point im making about the spread is just that i see value in the sharks at +18. The leinster side that will play on saturday will be vastly similar to the one that began the game against glasgow as 4 point favourites and lost the game by 18 points, so the bookies were out by 22 points.

I see leinster as having a disrupted coaching staff and preseason, lacking a hell of a lot of experience and power in their (assumed) 23. Sharks on the other hand will be able to call on 8 capped springboks if they want to, have a very settled and well regarded coaching staff, and a very high percentage goal kicker.

im not saying i think sharks will win this, i would just expect a much closer game than the 18 point spread would suggest, but anyway, we'll see on saturday.

RichieRich_89 · 25-10-2023 1:12pm

Yeah, 18 points does seem quite a big predicted margin. The bookies are acting as if Lancaster is still there.

Dubinusa · 25-10-2023 1:15pm

I can't see a Leinster win this week. We are down to 5th choice loose head, 4th choice hooker. The 2nd row was poor last week. Without the coaches in situ, Leinster looked lost.

Burkie1203 · 25-10-2023 3:23pm

No reason ross Byrne and JOB to not be involved. Alaalatoa also

Understand they have been away etc but they can be given a week or two off down the line if necessary

arsebiscuits1 · 25-10-2023 5:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121282891#Comment_121282891

Ala'alatoa is a different prospect because he's not an Irish player and has been available for a few more weeks.

But Ross and Jimmy are both on holidays along with the rest of the squad.

Hard to begrudge it given they convened in late July and have had barely a week off in that 3 months including very little time at home.

Dubinusa · 25-10-2023 8:23pm

Should be an interesting season, with the international players coming in and then the 6N right after they get back.

Clegg · 26-10-2023 10:38am

Jacques Nienaber has been nominated for world rugby coach of the year. Could be a double World Cup winner by the time he arrives.

There's no guarantee he'll be a success at Leinster, but we're still getting someone of the highest pedigree.

arsebiscuits1 · 26-10-2023 1:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121285490#Comment_121285490

I am very excited about getting Nienaber in. Naturally he will take a little bit of time to bed in and find the balance between how he wants Leinster to play and how Leinster should play but once he gets it I think it could be a significant plus.

His 2 most recent teams have been Munster and South Africa and both have been extremely well coached. South Africa the most obvious example are just a formidably well drilled team.

But I don't think we can take away from how good a defensive outfit Munster were in his time there. They were bullish and hard to break down and probably overachieved given the calibre of players they had back then as a result of their D. They finished top of the Pro12 and conceded the fewest amount of tries that year. Similarly that year in Europe they succumbed to a peak Sarries side in the Semis but were still a teak tough team qualifying for the knock outs that year as second seed again conceding the fewest amount of tries in the pool stage with 4. Them and Sarries were the only teams that conceded less than 10!

Obviously Rassie deservedly shares some of the accolades that Nienaber gets but he was defensive coach at Munster and lord knows they were defensively good under his watch.

leakyboots · 26-10-2023 2:39pm

Ye're definitely getting a good one defensively, he knows his onions there. I'm interested to see how he'll amalgamate that with the sort of attack Leinster fans are used to seeing.

Clegg · 26-10-2023 4:09pm

One area I hope Nienaber can influence, outside of defence, is Leinster's attacking game after receiving kicks from the opposition. We're very good at kick returns and also defending opposition transitions after we kicked to them. But I think we lack an element of unpredictability on transition attacks.

Everything Leinster do is highly precise and well executed, but I think we could be more threatening in broken play.

RichieRich_89 · 26-10-2023 11:15pm

Bench for the business end of the season?

16. Ronan Kelleher, 17. Cian Healy/Michael Milne, 18. Michael Ala'alatoa/Cian Healy, 19. Jason Jenkins, 20. Ryan Baird, 21. Max Deegan, 22. Will Connors, 23. Ciarán Frawley

Frawley covering outhalf, centre and fullback, with Ringrose shifting to wing or scrumhalf if necessary.

Exclamation Marc · 26-10-2023 11:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121288778#Comment_121288778

A 7/1 split, you're having a laugh. Never gonna happen (bar there simply not being enough backs fit enough).

arsebiscuits1 · 27-10-2023 9:42am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121288778#Comment_121288778

The South African special. Very good haha.

I don't see us going down the 7-1 route or even the 6-2 route too often.

Also it did not bode well for Will Connors that he only got 7 minutes off the bench last week. I know it's hard to bring the last sub on in a tight game as you still want to factor in injuries but he's so far down the pecking order.

Early days in the season but he's nearing the stage of "not being the player he once was" rather than "needs to hit form again from his injury disruptions"

Clegg · 27-10-2023 10:38am

It's hard to say with Connors. It could be that Leinster are being extra cautions given his history with knee injuries and concussion.

He made one very good carry during his time on the pitch so that was encouraging. Will take a few more games before I start to worry about this being another Dan Leavy situation.

Exclamation Marc · 27-10-2023 11:03am

I think the thing about Connors is that he's now a significant distance behind Scott Penny and JVDF that his gametime is going to be severely limited to opportunistic appearances and it's hard to see him getting past them in front of him.

In his last three seasons (+last week) Connors has only started 7 games (at 7) and come off the bench for 10. Scott Penny on the other hand has started 33 games at 7 (and 3 games at 8) and come off the bench for 7 games. Penny has been so consistent (averaging a try every other game in addition to his dominant on-field work) that its impossible right now to see him being dropped and his election to captain last week is probably an endorsement of that. It unfortunately might leave Connors a bit in the wilderness.

Totally unrelated but this could be the season that Cian Healy passes Devin Toner as Leinster's all-team appearance record (if he gets 15+ appearances). Quite incredible for a player who was on the verge of retiring years ago. He's been some servant to Leinster.

Buer · 27-10-2023 11:04am

I don't think (hope) that Connors will be a Dan Leavy situation but unfortunately I think he might well be a Kevin McLaughlin situation. Was fairly late to the party after early injuries, has a few seasons where he's a truly valuable player for his province and looked comfortable in his 8 caps but other players simply passed him and were better options due to losing ground during injuries.

To be honest, I'd be tempted to take a Kevin McLaughlin career for Connors right now if it means 2-3 years of staying fit now. He's 3 years younger than VDF so really should have been part of the continuity plan for VDF winding down in the next few years.