Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

Who this mystery third party that will go into government with FF and FG?

If I were a FF member and looking at the polls of my party I wouldn't be looking at potential damage that might be caused by a future coalition, I'd be looking at what is causing the damage in the here and now.

I think when the gloves come off and the restraints (because they are after all in a coalition) of government are let loose there will be some bloodletting over the direction the party has taken.

It's either that or continue to slip down the poll rankings into obscurity.

There is also a slight preference in the latest polls for the continuation of the current coalition vs a SF led govt.

FF are at 18% now, so trending upwards. As are FG. Up 2% to 21%.

FG and FF could easily return another coalition and according to this months poll, thats the preferred option amongst voters.

More of the same.

It is the most recent marker in the data set and it does indeed reflect an uptick in the trend.

Whether it continues into a longer term trend is another question.

But interesting that SF have dropped 4% and FFG are up 1% or 2%.

Not sure what the reasons are, possibly the current govts slightly tougher stance on immigration?

But what then is FFs best route to govt?

If they want to stay in the Dail they have to join with FG or SF.

There isnt enough time, or difference in policy vs FG, for them to get a majority.

It isnt a first!

They are in a coalition now!

No party will campaign for a coalition, but when it comes to forming a govt, thats what they shall do.

And thats exactly what they did last time.

History repeats itself and the precedent is already set.

According to all the recent polls, there isnt a cirumstance in which we wont have a coalition this time around, because no party will have a majority. So we HAVE to have a coalition.

It is by the far the most likley outcome for the next election.

The only question is whether it will be FFG or FF/SF.

Yeh it is a first.

The first time these two have campaigned for a term in government after being in coalition together.

Can they successfully offer themselves as something different without spilling some metaphorical blood?

That is what will be interesting.

I agree that they will either offer the electorate the same again or they pretend they are offering something different (Alá Michéal and Leo last time out) and hope the electorate get the nod and the wink sleeveen campaigning.

A merger of the two civil war parties in everything but name.

It will be truly historic to see this happen in a campaign. And fascinating to see if media hold feet to the flames on it.

Lots of things can throw a spanner in the works though, further growth of SF as an election approaches and a campaign proper gets under way.

How high in the polls do SF have to get before survival jumping begins on the good ship FF, for instance?

Pearse Doherty can say SF are aiming for what he like - does not say he or they will get it.

He himself was aiming for a certificate in some course, and doing the course, in Letterkenny Regional Tech ( or whatever they call it ) and he dropped out, so he never got what he was aiming for then either.

You can say what you want about the other political parties on both sides of the border, but you cannot get away from the reality that when other parties look at your track record, they do not want to go in to government with you.

Must have been a hard week for S.F., down 4% in the opinion polls. Wonder if SF will have any authors at their Ard F., or are they against them too? (Edit : Ronan McGreevy & Tom Conlon’s The Kidnapping, David Blake Knox’s Face Down, Mairia Cahill’s Rough Beast and Jennifer O’Leary’s The Padre....)

Gerry is signing books down there. He again refused to answer if he thought it was ok that SF offices were used for a “clear the air” between a rape victim and a senior member of the Provos. Omerta.

Is there any major difference between the two parties now?

I am not sure there is.

Even if distinctions are made and they campaign differently (which i think they will - they will take different approaches on certain subjects to distinguish themselves) the bottom line is that nobody will have a majority, once the votes are in.

They all already know this.

So they will uncouple at the start of the electoral dance and rejoin at the end.

Just as the song goes.

Ah, Gerry ( who says he was never in the IRA but nobody believes him) and other senior figures from "the North" are never far away. Omerta is just one reason other parties will never go in to coalition with S.F. They know what happens smaller parties in a coalition, they know what S.F. was and is like in government in N.I. and they know omerta etc and would not want to tarnish themselves by being in coalition with such a party / organisation.

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Micheál Martin: “The Paul Quinn murder stands out. But the omerta that follows it – that people are so afraid and so intimidated by that organisation that they won’t engage with the police”