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Storm Debi : Mon 13th Nov 2023

  • 11-11-2023 8:22pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,335 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Might be worth putting up a storm watch thread at this stage with the ECM now very much showing some seriou winds across Ireland and just over 24 hrs away.

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Well that is a surprise I think seeing the ECM move more towards ARPEGE, a huge shift . A lot unfolding here, if this were to happen like this it could be quite stormy across Ireland as the storm deepens as it makes a quick transit, dont see these often, usually more see the type of strong winds that loose power the further inland but as this looks it could bring those very strong winds sweeping across the country or even increasing inland but I reckon we haven't seen the exact track or strength yet, big changes still from each run.


    Currently showing a fast moving and deepening storm move across Ireland early on Mon morning and a difficult one for forecasters, that would be some serious winds just around school drop offs .

    As it looks would think it could be a high end Orange at least , very high around Galway/Clare.




    Post edited by DOCARCH on


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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,335 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Some very wet conditions showing up especially in the W. NW, much of it falling in the early hours of Monday morning.






  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,335 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58



    UKMO HD a bit further South of the track of the ECM, but similar angle of track, need to see other models come on board to have more certainty.




    24hr accumulation. Can see why the Met Office have issued an early yellow rainfall warning for Northern counties on Mon.



    Total accumulation up to 6pm Monday




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,975 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    Finally found this thread, can't believe this could possibly be the 4th storm and before Christmas as well



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,877 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Any idea when Met Eireann will decide to name this or not? Or when they might put out warnings?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,296 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Advisory for Ireland

    There is potential for a spell of wet and very windy weather over Ireland on Sunday night and for a time on Monday as a deepening depression tracks over the country.


    Possible Impacts:

    • Localised flooding

    • Poor road conditions

    • Fallen trees / branches


    Further updates to this advisory will follow on Sunday, November 12th.

    Valid: 23:00 Sunday 12/11/2023 to 13:00 Monday 13/11/2023

    Issued: 13:26 Saturday 11/11/2023



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 474 ✭✭Robwindstorm


    This will be a forecasters nightmare, a little over 24hrs away and what could be a potent storm could also turn out to be a regular wet and windy spell.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,440 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Debi is next on the storm name list. We’ll find out in the morning.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,906 ✭✭✭Comhrá




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I hope this won't be another letdown. Sometimes these systems at short notice can be quite potent. At least we won't have to wait too long to find out this time



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,016 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    The 18z ICON, ARPEGE, and AROME (up to 6am Monday) runs have dialed back the wind speeds considerably. UKMO HD and HARMONIE still showing some strong winds for E to NE later Monday. GFS continuing to show a non-event.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,335 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Yeah, the GFS is showing it windier now closer to the East but mostly offshore and sweeping across the UK, more like 80 to 90km/h, ARPEGE , UKMO and ECM similar track now, but ARPEGE not as strong whilst the UKMO looks a lot stormier over Ireland but normally inclined to show it a bit stronger than what it usually is ( just before the off normally comes in line a bit more). So a head scratcher. ICON not showing anything too strong, gusty yes but not a storm.





  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I can cope with being let down. The only thing I want is an uneventful winter and a normal spring/summer next year.

    TIA😁



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,335 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 18Z is an eye opener, rarely do you see such strong winds being shown so close to the off, showing some serious winds N Kerry, more so Clare and Galway and very strong stormy winds sweeping across the country. So unusual to have such a big spread in the models so late in the day.

    ECM very similar to the UKMO at this stage.




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,335 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    HARMONIE now on a similar track, deepening , moving very quickly and bringing very strong winds and heavy rain over Ireland. Looks very wind in the East late morning /early afternoon.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,975 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    Some gusts alright around in Sally gap on Monday morning but look at those feels like temperatures 🌡 -14c



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,440 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Met office update for the North. Rare occurrence for them to mention storm force.

    Monday:

    Dull with heavy rain, also very windy with gale to severe gales for some, particularly in south and east, perhaps touching storm force for time. Winds, rain easing from mid-afternoon. Maximum temperature 11 °C.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Met Eireann mentioning very heavy rain for Connacht and Ulster with possible spot flooding in places. It could be very windy too with damaging gusts in places. It will shoot through quickly, so a few hours of wind at most.



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,446 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Siobhan Ryan saying warnings to be issued in the next couple of hours. She said Orange with 'embedded Red conditions' (whatever that means!). She also said 'severe and rare' conditions! Quite dramatic talk from her!

    From what she said, would have to assume Storm Debi on the way.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 146 ✭✭King of Spades


    First I’ve heard of this storm even though I keep a close eye on the weather. Will catch a lot unawares. Is it even named yet?



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,446 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Not named yet but would have to expect it will be.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,016 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    ECM 00z showing nearly 200km gusts north of the Dingle peninsula, with GFS showing hardly a breeze across the country. The spread in the models so near to the event is mad. ICON and ARPEGE also not going for much but UKMO continues to show strong winds crossing the country.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,165 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    She's my favourite presenter at the moment, usually very good. I don't see this storm as being much though! Unless she thinks it will hit Dublin on exiting and impact a large population



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,016 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    UKMO has much of Dublin getting gusts well into orange level at 8am so if that comes to pass they may opt for red, peak commuting time.

    For what it's worth UKMO was the closest forecast to the track of Ciaran, wonder if it's the most correct now!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,165 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Perhaps a short red is required like for say 2 hours. At least it would delay the schools opening which is priority!! Unusual that Dublin is in the impact zone combined with worst possible timing



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    195kmh gusts on Dingle peninsula so a lot of people, including me in it's path.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,165 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Quite a few models create nothing. Indeed the latest Icon just out barely has a force 6



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,446 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    It will be a busy day in Glasnevin! Dammed if they do/dammed if they don't warnings!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,165 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The only option I can see is that they leave it until after the afternoon runs. There's quite a high chance nothing will develop as there's too many models not seeing it. An accurate warning at 6pm gives people/media enough time to prepare imo



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,877 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    And we officially have a storm. Debi has been named by Met Eireann



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 474 ✭✭Robwindstorm


    From 'rare and destructive weather' to a possible wet and windy weather. This is a nightmare for forecasters between the worst possible timing to complete unpredictability, and it's less than 24hrs away. I have never seen this happen before.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    They - Met Eireann - must be confident enough of it happening given the update in the Morning Forecast. Of course things may change, but if they don't a lot of places could be impacted. It will be very brief though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,877 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    I'd say the fact it is hitting Dublin around the peak morning commute will have them a lot more cautious in Glasnevin



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Yes, I suppose so there is that too. They will be sweating on the afternoon runs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,466 ✭✭✭FastFullBack


    Named Debi now, with Orange warnings for large parts of the country


    Status Orange - Wind warning for Carlow, Dublin, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Longford, Louth, Meath, Offaly, Westmeath, Wicklow, Clare, Kerry, Limerick, Tipperary, Galway

    Met Éireann Weather Warning


    Stormy on Sunday night and Monday due to Storm Debi with severe and damaging gusts.


    Possible impacts:

    - Damage to exposed and vulnerable structures

    - Dangerous travelling conditions

    - Disruption to services

    - Damage to power lines


    Valid: 02:00 Monday 13/11/2023 to 12:00 Monday 13/11/2023


    Issued: 08:57 Sunday 12/11/2023



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,296 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Nasty little system with lots of rain in it. But where will the strong winds occur. Orange warning now in place




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,513 ✭✭✭BrianD3


    Orange warning for midland counties yet only a yellow for Cork, Waterford, Mayo and many otherrs, I don't recall ever seeing that before. If we do get actual Orange level windspeeds inland, here will be a lot of damage done as there is a lot of low hanging fruit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,877 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    It happens all the time that only certain counties get orange warnings during a storm. It all depends on the track of the system



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,016 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    UKMO HD is really going for it. Red level winds for much of Dublin from 6am to 10am




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,296 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Tonight will bring a mix of clear spells and scattered showers to begin. Thundery spells of rain will follow later, turning very heavy in places, especially over Connacht and Ulster with some flooding, hail and lightning possible. Cyclonic variable winds will pick up in strength too with very windy or even stormy westerly winds developing. Some severe and damaging gusts are possible. Lowest temperatures of 6 to 10 degrees



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,513 ✭✭✭BrianD3


    No, it is rare that coastal counties in the south, west and north get lower wind warnings than midland counties.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Yes fairly unusual. Also the spread on the models and the way it has kind of crept up on us. As you say Debi might might not last long but could do a fair bit of damage as it sweeps across the country. Well this is assuming there are no downgrades on the ECM output later today.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,069 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    I am not looking forward to travelling from Mayo to Dublin with an empty trailer at 6am tomorrow.

    Unavoidable due to a house move that has to be completed tomorrow.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,877 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Kerry,limerick,clare and Galway are on the warning? That's a fair chunk of the West Coast



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,016 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    GFS 06Z showing some stronger winds now but still not near the levels other models are showing and it mainly affects the East. ICON HD and UKMO HD both show a similar picture but UKMO is stronger. Maybe some sort of consensus beginning to form on track but intensity is still a big mix.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,296 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Met office gives some intense rain over Connaught with strong winds for NE




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,513 ✭✭✭BrianD3


    ME are going to earn their money if they get this one even half right! If there is a slight change in track could the likes of Cork go from a yellow to a red warning. Given the projected track of the storm and the impact on Dublin on a Monday morning at school and commute time, I could see this turning into a red warning and school closures for the southern half of the country.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    It seems a bit strange that some parts of Mayo and Roscommon are not included in the warning yet Galway and Longford are. I suspect when they refer to Galway, not all of the county will experience orange conditions. Perhaps places like Tuam and Dunmore will be yellow only?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,541 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Morning commute should be interesting, I'll definitely be taking the car!

    Looks very fast moving at least, be over quick enough.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    An ad popped up on Facebook




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Strange parts of North West Cork aren’t in an orange level… especially with Limerick in orange…



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