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Nuclear - future for Ireland?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,156 ✭✭✭gjim



    The 2021 Texas electricity crisis is famous but the numbers for 2020, for example aren't much better (476 minutes versus 456). Most countries don't split SAIDI into with/without "Major events" the way the yanks do because it's expected that you design and spec your infrastructure to handle the prevailing conditions. In 2017 it was a whopping 505.9 minutes - so it seems there's always something. The minimum over the last decade or so show about 4 hours interruption. The European grid whether on aggregate is about 8 times more reliable than the US on this metric with Germany having the most reliable electricity globally amongst large countries with an incredible 12 minutes per year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Shoog




  • Registered Users Posts: 8,826 ✭✭✭SeanW


    The US has an abundance of cheap gas from fracking, and nuclear there has to compete with that, without the generous preferential treatment given to renewables. Western Europe doesn't exactly have a large surplus of gas ...



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Shoog


    It was mainly cancelled because of cost overruns and uncompetitivness against renewables.



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,718 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    This project was cancelled because of the costs and economics of it didn’t add up.

    The project was set up in such a way that multiple neighbouring electricity supply companies had to sign up for it to go ahead.

    Pretty much all the companies involved pulled out due to the rising costs of the project and the fact that they could buy new renewable supply at a much lower cost.

    I hate to say it, but it really isn’t surprising, people have been trying to build commercial SMR’s for more than 50 years and all the projects to date have failed. It is one of those technologies that is always 20 years away.

    And it isn’t that you can’t build a SMR, the difficulty is doing so at scale and economically.

    Honestly I was hoping it would be different this time, but I was pretty dubious of many of the claims being made about them, it really didn’t add up.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,463 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Did rolls royce get the Gov funding they were seeking to fully develop their smr ?

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,463 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    just googled this - -so answered my own question - its wikipedia so ...there may be a slant in it .. or not .

    But in the history section of the article it says that RR were looking for billions to develop this , and would be ready for the early 2030s ,

    But the uk gov has drip fed a bit here and a bit there , and now want to go with an international competition.. to decide on who builds them ,

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Shoog


    No the put it back to a competitive auction - which basically means they pulled the plug.

    It will be interesting to see if the Chinese pebble beds ever make it out of development. I doubt it since the Chinese are so heavily invested in expanding renewables.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,693 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    The Chinese economy is big enough to do anything they like.

    SMR would be useful from them, and if they can get the scale and costs right, it would be a world winner. They are trying to be world leaders in Electric Vehicle - whether they be cars or buses. They are working on batteries, and PV panels, plus many other technologies.

    Of course, if they are too good, then the West will take action against them to redress the balance - if they can.

    Just think, the USA were running out of oil, then discovered fracking.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,578 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    SMR is an attempt to engineer your way around basic physics... those never end well. Uranium reactors aren't that hot (less than 400°C), and so are inefficient at small size: low temperature limits the power that such a reactor can produce (see Carnot's Theorem). For comparison, Gas turbine generators operate at well over 1000°C.

    Thorium reactors have the advantage of operating at much hotter temperatures, and so would be viable at small size, but against that is the major disadvantage that they do not really exist.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,722 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    You could make much of the same criticisms about wind and solar in terms of costs and government supports. As it is consumers across these islands are still waiting for all this "cheap" renewables to be reflected in their bills despite all the BS on the matter for the past 15 years or so from the usual suspects🙄



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The lack of comprehension around this is astounding despite it being explained on a regular basis

    It's almost like some just want to remain ignorant just so they can have a moan



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,722 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Some of us have to live in the real world pal and have bills to pay and business to run. You may be happy with these developers creaming fat profits via these flawed energy policies, but the resulting cost of living crisis and energy poverty issues are real for many.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,156 ✭✭✭gjim



    Exactly - the vast bulk of what you see in the stereotypical picture of a nuclear power plant basically comprise the parts of a very large steam engine. It uses a heat source to boil water and then drive the steam through turbines to extract mechanical energy. The nuclear fluffers on this thread struggle with the difference between energy and power so good luck appealing to fundamental physical laws around heat engines. SMRs - in their long history - have only every found a use for military purposes because they solve a very specific need which is to keep subs and carriers powered while thousands of km from a base or fuel depot - where conventional fuel supply would be a logistical nightmare and highly vulnerable to enemy attack. And as it's military, money is no object, of course.

    This (specific and only) winning advantage of SMRs for the military is of no value in civilian use. And the entire civilian industry has been pushing in the other direction for decades with bigger and hotter reactors in order to improve efficiency to try to regain some competitiveness initially lost to coal back in the 1980s/90s - an obvious response knowing that nuclear power generation is subject to Carnot efficiency. But so far they have failed. If large reactors like the EPR have proven uncompetitive, then a less efficient version of the same technology has no chance.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Again, you appear to have little understanding of marginal pricing and the effects caused by gas prices, the RESS model and the impact it has on "developers creaming fat profits", or the financing of nuclear in general and instead just want to rant

    I'd suggest starting with Lazards LCOE to get a greater understanding on the poor economic model for nuclear, then the RESS process itself and finally investigate why there are talks in the EU of decoupling gas from energy pricing

    What you will learn may surprise you



  • Registered Users Posts: 719 ✭✭✭Cushtie


    Lads, ye could be here arguing this for the next 20 years and still no answer will prove one sides view over the other.

    One thing is for sure though. Energy Policy will be driven by whatver makes big businesses the most money. That is the way of this world. There is no getting away from it. It is being wrapped up in climate change now, will be something else in 50 years time If they "solve" climate change.

    You think the Governments, Companies, Lobbyists, investors, Capitalists give a **** about any of this. Think again.

    Take a look at the Snowy 2.0 story above. Projected cost 2 billion to 12 billion. Where is all that money going. That's just one project. Energy is an industry. Industry exists to make money.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Which is why nuclear is dead in the water, all costs and little long term profit to be made. Literally no one is willing to invest in nuclear unless they are strong armed into it by governments with bottomless wallets.

    It's sad that the fanboys cannot see the obvious.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,722 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    I know plenty about the RESS - its set up to keep energy prices artificially high for the benefit of profit gouging energy companies who like to Greenwash their operations. Waffle about gas prices doesn't wash cos they have come down substantially over the past year with same companies very slow to pass on any benefits to consumers



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,722 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    How many investors would there be in the solar/wind area without all those government supports??? As it is the likes of wind developers are constantly coming to the government with the begging bowl looking for more money and more expensive grid work simply to benefit themselves



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I know plenty about the RESS - its set up to keep energy prices artificially high for the benefit of profit gouging energy companies who like to Greenwash their operations.

    The second part of the sentence would indicate the first part is not accurate.

    If you wish to rant, grand, but at least learn the basics of what you are ranting about

    Or don't 🤷‍♂️



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Shoog


    The article is very informative of what makes a successful nuclear program, and why everything since the 1970s has been an abject failure. Heres the bit which will kick all the nuclear fanboys in the (bird)nuts

    "The fiscal ideologues who seem to like nuclear power the most are ignoring the lessons of the past because their cognitive biases don’t allow them to understand that free market economics and nuclear generation go together like flame throwers and gas stations. It just doesn’t compute for them that the market sucks for some things, and that nuclear energy is one of them."

    Post edited by Shoog on


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,718 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    Such a well written article, a most read for anyone interested in this topic.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,722 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    You seem to have difficulty with basic economics if you think the RESS benefits anybody other then energy companies



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Shoog


    more sobering analysis for the nuclear fanboys. They were told that Nuscale would be a flop but they just wished it wasn't.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Never accounted for when cost of nuclear is been discussed, sobering reading for the nuclear fanboys;

    https://cleantechnica.com/2023/11/19/uk-has-e10-billion-per-nuclear-reactor-decommissioning-bottomless-pit/#gallery_1



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,463 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Some of that is because of the weird experimental designs that british nuclear fuels went with way back when - gas cooled i think ,

    but its a huge cost ,

    And thats not 10 billion per station ,thats per reactor .. + they havent completed a decommisioning yet - so the costs could be way way way higher ... Or not

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Shoog


    EDF claim they can do it for about €350 million per reactor. How believable is that ?

    The nuclear authorities don't believe them and so forsee significant issues in France in the coming years, highly likely it will finally drive them into official bankruptcy.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,463 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    EDF are the current operators of british nuclear power stations , but they didnt build them , and the remaining stations arent the magnox design ..

    Are edf on the hook to decommision these stations - or is that back on the british government?

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



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