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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭macraignil


    "Now the 2 potential states appear to be, stalemate or a war of attrition which the Russians by virtue of their size are more likely to win."

    I know russia by land area is big but with only 9 people per square kilometer does it actually have the economic and labour resources to utilise that physical size particularly with thousands being sent to their deaths by putin and many more running away from the country in recent years?

    The economy of the russian federation is a fraction of that of the EU and putin in invading Ukraine has in reality declared war on all of the EU which has the military support of all of NATO while putin can only rely on the military support of Belarus, Syria, North Korea and Iran with other neighbours that continue to trade with putin fully aware that to support him militarily would lead to their own economies and people suffering because of putin's dreams of empire building. Even before the war and imposition of sanctions the economy and the industrial resources putin had to work with mean a long conflict in spite of your opinion does not give him a better chance of victory in my opinion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    It's a possibility worth checking out,they could in theory undermine the Russian trenches and minefields and blow large corridors fore men and vehicles to safely pass through,I'm surprised they haven't already tried



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,704 ✭✭✭✭briany


    If nothing else, it would be another check mark under 'WW1 w/ drones'.

    Neither side is going to be able to break the stalemate as things stand.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,855 ✭✭✭Rawr


    It’s been done in trench warfare before, but can be extremely risky with the added danger of giving the enemy access to your trenches.

    During Winter the ground will also be much harder to dig into, making tunneling a very laborious task for an already overloaded force. Taking the trenches does have the advantage of opening up an area to allow tanks to advance but I suspect the more realistic tactic for the AFU is to punch corridors across No-Mans Land for their APCs, take out the Russian artillery and then deliver troops into the enemy trenches via APC / Tank.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,507 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Tunnel warfare was,I think huge in WW1.They tunneled and did a Guy Fawkes number under the other side's troop concentrations.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,310 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Tunnelling is dangerous, lethal work and there's a thousand things that could go wrong before the sappers got near their target. Bunker busters and their ilk a much cheaper less costly way of getting defences destroyed - and given Ukraine has to be more careful about its troops, are probably taking the safer option when and where they can.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    One particular undermining operation at Messines took out something like 10,000 in a single explosion,the Lochnagar crater is huge which you can visit today

    And something the Ukrainians know a thing about between coal and salt mines



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,507 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Had no idea it had been so destructive (rather not ask who got killed then)


    Puts me in mind of the British attack on the French (Brittany?) harbour when they filled a boat with gunpowder .


    I think it exploded out of range.


    Would that have been 17th century?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,128 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    There's a good movie called Beneath Hill 60 about that.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,016 ✭✭✭RGARDINR


    Yeah I haven't been there but massive hole in the ground from documentaries I've seen, only saving grace the soldiers wouldn't of known what happened when it detonated. I'm actually surprised the Russians haven't made massive mine shafts under their tranches and when Ukraine advances blow them up when they loose them if they done tht a few times you would be wary of going into a trench I say thinking tht might happen.



  • Registered Users Posts: 843 ✭✭✭m2_browning


    For a country that we are told is meant to have endless man power and artillery they sure as hell like moaning about the enemy having artillery advantage




  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,741 Mod ✭✭✭✭riffmongous


    It seems the 10000 number might be a misunderstanding

    https://simonjoneshistorian.com/did-the-messines-mines-really-kill-10000-germans/



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,417 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    It's been done in Eastern Ukraine since 2014 when Russia invaded there.

    Been done by both sides.

    No doubt the Russians have huge underground concrete bunkers and probably the Ukrainians have too in the longer timeframe front areas.



  • Registered Users Posts: 232 ✭✭IdHidden


    On land The Russian army is mainly in a defensive posture, with mine and trenches just like in WW1, that an invading army has be reduced to a static defensive posture, is very far from victory.

    The current stalemate is based on the military capability of each side, and that will change with time.

    Given the technological and economic advantages of their supporters the Ukrainians have far more capacity for improvement than the Russians have.

    On the sea, Ukraine a country without any real navy, has managed to cause the Russian Navy many casualties.

    In the Air, Russia has not achieved air superiority, and it is unlikely it ever will.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,417 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    A very good thread on how Russia imports microchips for military and the lengths they go to traverse the sanctions.

    There's an Irish element mentioned in past imports.

    Also how they will pay and favour business through cash and women.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,741 ✭✭✭zv2


    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,036 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    The capacity and willingness of Ukrainian citizens to carry on the fight will also be an important factor. At present they still seem strong and possibly as well motivated as at any time.

    Whatever the eventual outcome, surely the political geography of this part of the world is changed. And that along with continuing sanctions will have a big impact on Putin's Russia. Their propagandist portrayal of Russia v The West will come to pass and the penny will drop at some stage that this was all self inflicted by the imperialist ambition of their elite.



  • Registered Users Posts: 843 ✭✭✭m2_browning


    The drone videos of:

    * frozen Russians having grenades dropped on them

    * their mates robbing them instead of helping with wounds

    * being shot by their own barrier troops

    * fields carpeted with badly equipped Russian uniformed bodies

    * FPV drones chasing Russians into trenches and clear them out

    paint a dystopian scifi horror like picture of the infantry troops not doing much better



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,438 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Russians have always paid with cash, women or blackmail. Its how they have always worked and its what has always worked for Russians in Russia, so why not elsewhere in the world??? ( and unfortunately it is working too......)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 843 ✭✭✭m2_browning


    The sanctions will never close all loopholes and to be fair that’s not even the aim despite ever more detailed sanctions packages that in last iteration went after companies in Switzerland and UAE helping Russians

    The aim is to squeeze and choke the Russian economy, and only the most brainwashed and deluded of Putinistas would argue that is not happening. And it will only get worse and worse for them in an accelerated fashion over time. Even the oil cap has proven to be a success having the Russians sell but not make much in way of profit.

    Keep in mind that sanctions rarely if ever get lifted, I said it before and say it again, time is not on Russian side, they can look forward to decades of worse and stricter sanctions than Cuba or Venezuela or North Korea without the nice climate to take edge of them.

    At least Cuba could point to left leaning ideology of theirs which wins them sympathy, who has sympathy for Russia beside the very far right and far left for what is not even an ideology but plain war of colonial conquest they have started.



  • Registered Users Posts: 819 ✭✭✭who what when


    I don't think I've posted in this tread before but I've followed it from the start and read pretty much the whole thing.

    Can someone explain how Russia can take such monumental losses? Most countries in the world don't have armies the size of what they have lost. But yet they don't appear to be losing ground.

    According to Ukraine Russia have lost over 300k soldiers. For reference the UK has an army of something like 80k! How is this possible? What kind of numbers do Ukraine need to eliminate to win this war?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,879 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Yes it can never be 100 % effective. I don't believe enough is being done, existing sanctions are not being being enforced strongly enough.

    As a further example see claim from official in our Department of Finance that Ireland has few teeth for enforcing the financial sanctions on Russia and so it is on an honour system (article below).

    It is different to the enforcing of restrictions on high technology exports, but it is a similar problem of a lack of proper enforcement and inability or unwillingness to make examples of those who break the law as a deterrent.

    The largest companies will comply because the potential damage they could suffer from breaking the law is not worth the rewards, but there are always some criminals and scum who will be prepared to risk it.

    If they are seen to suffer no consequences and they just personally profit off Russian blood money (and help prolong the war), this emboldens more to do the same.




  • Registered Users Posts: 843 ✭✭✭m2_browning


    They can do a lot they just don’t want to here as they don’t realise yet how serious the US are

    Wait until the US starts sanctioning Irish companies (like happened with Swiss and UAE companies couple of weeks ago) and Ireland starts get a bad name and you will see panic and “oh we didn’t know” arguments from various departments while companies scramble to block deals with anyone sounding remotely Russian, quite a few companies are already ahead of the curve



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,634 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    I'm blown away by the losses they've taken in the last few months and still have plenty of tanks and armoured vehicles to throw at Ukraine. It won't last forever though and whether it's another year or two they will eventually run out of tanks that are half decent.


    Economically it will be the same. You have to remember Russia saved up a lot of wealth to fund this and they're still burning through that war chest. Once it's gone with the next year they'll start burning through cash needed for their economy.

    Ukraine just need to keep going, keep the kill/death ratio high and strike as many Russian vehicles/soldiers/ammo/fuel logistics behind the front lines as possible. War isn't cheap and as long as it's sustainable for Ukraine to defend itself Russia won't win. Whether that's in 2 years or 8 years but it has to happen in this war. A ceasefire for a few year's will only benefit Russia.

    And whether it happens next year or longer Ukraine have to be given everything under the sun to make that breakthrough to the south. Turn Crimea into an island which will be extremely costly to keep resupplying.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,959 ✭✭✭Christy42


    There was a reason they were considered a super power. They do have a large army. Few realised quite how ineffective it would be but it is still very large. There will be no quick win for the Ukraine for this reason but that it has lasted this long and that Russia is now largely lost the ability to move forward shows that the long term war will be won by the Ukraine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,036 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    @jmreire will tell you about why as we've discussed it before. I too can't see how they are managing to keep a lid on Russian society in this modern era of connectivity. Yes, the Russian provinces may be less well educated but I'd assume that most/ many young people are quite adept with consumer technology.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,207 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    Fear. Plain and simple.

    Culturally, the vast majority of Russian people have never known anything other than serfdom. First under the Tzars, then under the Communist Party, now under Putin's Mafia. Vast amounts of money and personnel have been invested in to keep the serfs beaten down and a brutal response to any attempt to protest or rise up over the past few decades has the Russian people too afraid to fight for their own interests. It took a long time for me to understand it to tbh.

    I'd absolutely recommend this documentary on the fall of the Soviet Union (which I came across thanks to another poster on this thread) to help get your head around it somewhat: TraumaZone: What It Felt Like to Live Through The Collapse of Communism and Democracy

    https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLSjQL8MYniTTLA3wnZ25U-s6RgR4uJNvL

    It's a seven-part BBC documentary television series by Adam Curtis that use's archival footage from the BBC's Moscow bureau to brilliant effect. There's a few good documentaries on Channel 4 on Putin that show the more recent history.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,879 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    We can but hope to see more of that sort of thing I suppose. (Speaking generally, not about Ireland in particular) the US govt. (or some larger European countries like France/Germany/UK) taking up the torch, ruining a few companies committing sins of omission or commission around sanctions and jailing fat cat directors or managers involved that dare to show faces on US/EU soil would be great.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 144 ✭✭Steviemak7


    The Adam Curtis documentary is fascinating. The raw footage is very powerful.



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