Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

I would think those in shadow ministries will take up respective Ministerial positions.

other than that I haven't given it much thought at this stage.

So it's quite possible that negotiations for a new government won't call FF a 'junior' partner even though we all know on seat numbers that they are.

Optics.

Pretending they are equal is optics.

They are equal due to negotiation.

I don't have any real issue with that BTW, that how it works.

But I don't have to pretend

I can see a situation with FF having enough seats to form a government with SF.

There then enters a conundrum for FF, do they refuse and take the further wrath of the electorate for causing another election or do they give it a go?

I don't think another FF/FG/Oth is a given, there are many scenarios that may emerge/

See what you are saying and agree with the quandaries there for the different parties.

However I think there are other things that will be having an effect.

I don't think you can handwave away internal issues in FF re: continued coalition with FG.

I think it really will be crossroads time for FF if polling now were to play out in a GE.

Nobody will rock the boat too much when they are constrained by the current arrangements, but once those restraints end (we go to election) I think the handcuffs will come off those in FF who are unhappy.

It will be fascinating.

There's a definite whiff of grapeshot about SF. A lot of voters over a certain age have clear memories of the events of the 1970s and the 1980s and will have very grave doubts about SF. That generation hasn't died off yet and, significantly, FF draws disproportionately on that generation for its own support. So there's a degree of risk for FF in entering a coalition that puts SF in government — a risk which I think is magnified if SF is the larger party and expects the position of Taoiseach.

Everything depends on the electoral mathematics. If the mathematics are such that FF/FG and FF/SF both have the numbers to be a viable government, from FF's perspective FF/FG will look like both the electorally safer and the ideologically more coherent option. But if FF/SF is the only viable option then, yeah, FF will go there — not without some trepidation, but they will go there.

Can't see a collapse either.ffg numbers are already weak. Also even if sf are in opposition again, they have had huge increases in support over the last few years, effectively its nigh on impossible to get more than they have now, maybe tiny increases, they will win the most seats next election. The problem then is, if they go into government, it will be downhill from there seat wise come next election. A credible fourth force in politics, would be fantastic for the Irish people...

Things will get very interesting though if the numbers are there for FF and FG to form another government, but things are pretty precarious, possibly reliant on the Greens, SDs and a bunch of independents. Then we'll see where FF's true aspirations lie. I always thought for Martin, to paraphrase a former government colleague of his, the worst deal without SF is better than the best deal with them but ever since this 'wobble' I'm not so sure

If in that circumstance FF do end up cutting a deal with SF 'stability' will obviously be the reason cited but I doubt it'll be the only one, or even the main one...

Given his track record of saying one thing and doing another, I wouldn't be putting any money on that if you can't afford to lose it.

As long as the numbers are there to partner with FG instead of SF, its an easy choice to go (again) with the former.

Correct. S.F. is toxic to others: nobody wants to form a government with them.

I am not so sure about that.

I think most FF voters, who tend to be older or retired, would have real issues with the party governing with SF.

I dont think those people see partnering with FG as anything like as bad. FG and FF are barely distinguishable from eachother anyway.

Now sure, FF voters would like to see their party take on some defining policies that seperate themselves a little from FG. And they will campaign on that.

But when the dust settles, FF policies will be much closer to FG than they are to SF.

Same as they are today.

There's a vague possibility that SF might get enough seats to allow them to cobble together enough votes with a mish-mash of other parties, some or all of Labour, Greens, SDs and some independents. It's a long shot, but not entirely impossible at present.

Very much a long shot, though I think you are right that it cant be ruled out entirely.

There would be some serious concession trading in those government formation meetings!

I'd love to be a fly on the wall there :)

Interesting, but did it happen back to back elections and were there really serious societal consequences at play, I.e the housing crisis that is driving sf vote surge now...?