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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Administrators Posts: 53,810 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    its also concentrated within these organisations to, as generally, but not always, most share ownership would be towards higher level employees via stock options et

    If you're talking about MNCs here then no, it's not. In MNCs even graduates straight out of college will get stock, they will likely get a stock award as part of their hiring package.

    People are also mixing up a few different things. What most people here get are RSUs, which is basically you are awarded a value of stock and it vests over a number of years. Stock options is a different thing, where you can offered the chance to buy (or sell) shares at a predetermined price in future. These are not so common. Employee share purchase schemes are where you can buy company stock for a discounted price (but you pay tax on the discount).

    RSUs are common, every MNC employee likely has stock as some percentage of their overall compensation package. Options and ESP are more for people who actively want to be involved in the stock market.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,397 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    i some what disagree there, ive worked for an mnc before, even though many of us were availing of stock ownership, many, and i suspect most, simply werent, as they required their full pay to provide themselves with their needs, including and in particular their property needs. very few employees were gaining stock options, or any other schemes, as a part of their pay, some of course were....

    ...so this is probably very sector specific when younger employees do gain access to share schemes, and best of luck to them if they do, id highly recommended it....

    ...id love to get a breakdown of such situations and schemes, but ive no idea if such data exists, i know many working for mnc's, most lower level positions, general op's etc, and i suspect many if not most dont avail of such, for the reasons explained, but we ve no actual data to back anything up....

    what sectors do young gradates gain such? i was manufacturing based....



  • Administrators Posts: 53,810 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    In tech stocks would be very common for corporate employees. It's not a choice, a percentage if your compensation is stock. You can't take cash instead. The stock you earn vests over a number of years creating a golden handcuff (i.e. you cannot leave the company without forfeiting stock, and the longer you are employed the larger the value of the forfeit is going to be).

    The professional services companies (PWC, Deloitte etc) obviously don't do stock since they are not public companies.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,397 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    was thinking that alright, i know a coupe in that sector, some jobs really are well paid and well looked after in regards share ownership schemes, its great to see, but many other sectors just arent like that at all....

    i suspect most mnc jobs in ireland are in fact semi-skilled, lower end jobs, general op's etc, 30-50k, ive no data to back this claim but, i suspect this is the case, so really share ownership schemes arent actually really an option for probably most of these folks, all speculation of course, but.....



  • Registered Users Posts: 843 ✭✭✭m2_browning


    not many MNCs do stock programs and they sort of suck in this country

    that percentage of people are probably mostly small to medium business owners where you have to issue small amount of stock when creating a company



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  • Administrators Posts: 53,810 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Yes this is what I meant by corporate jobs. The people who work for Amazon corporate in Ireland (engineers, project managers etc) will get stock. Even new grads will get stock.

    The people who work for Amazon retail in Ireland (pickers etc) will not.



  • Registered Users Posts: 843 ✭✭✭m2_browning


    latest pod dissects where all the doommongering Bric layers on this thread went wrong from start of this thread

    ”what happened in US economy is nothing short of miraculous”

    ”China were doing well and then something went wrong”



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,553 ✭✭✭lmimmfn


    I used to be involved in one of those plans, i.e. commit to buying a certain amount of shares every 2-3 months and get the amount matched after X years, but its terrible in this country, as at the time of matching you have to pay ~50% tax on the matched share at the current market value not when you sell.

    This creates the problem that if you're actually making money on share price increases when receiving the matching shares then you get slapped with a massive tax bill every 2-3 month's and to compensate you have to sell them at that time making the whole thing absolutely pointless.

    Then of course when you do sell them and if the share price increased further from matching point youre slapped with CGT on that(yes i realise you can offset losses etc.).

    I felt like i was working for revenue, gambling my salary on the offchance of making money and the only winner from the gamble was revenue so I quit that scheme pretty lively, there are far far better ways to invest than schemes like that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 512 ✭✭✭ottolwinner


    Prime time tonight announcing that house prices in Dublin beginning to drop but still rising elsewhere. Is that a sign of cracks in the economy? is that common in other countries?



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,550 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    I think it’s more of a sign that interest rates are driving buyers outside of Dublin.

    Getting a mortgage now on a house in Dublin would be terrifying with the interest you’d pay.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,222 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    I do believe people are squeezed and it is only the start. But perhaps it won't go further than this. Hard to tell.

    Other countries in Europe have big drops in their house prices at the moment. Are we that special! Time will tell.

    Living the life



  • Registered Users Posts: 735 ✭✭✭techman1


    There's a couple of interesting dynamics at play in the global economy. If you were to only read the anglosphere/European explanations then interest rates are cooling demand, but China never raised interest rates in step with western economies. In fact interest rates in China have fallen continuously, before, during and after the pandemic.

    Thats because China went into recession because of covid, the lockdowns went on long after covid was over in the West. The chinese vaccine didn't work against the later variants of covid. Therefore China didn't get the inflationary expansion that happened in the West after covid so they didn't need to raise interest rates. Also the de globalisation and anti China policy in the west is hurting the Chinese economy now as illustrated by the chinese stock market which is in its 4th year of falls.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,499 ✭✭✭An Ri rua




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,222 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    Definitely a slow down in the job's market. Good few companies have their recruitment frozen for the last six months, so even when they lose employees they don't seem to employ but reshuffle others from different departments.

    I notice on LinkedIn how one job advertised has a lot of applicants applying for the role.

    Personally, don't hear much from agents like in the previous years.

    Living the life



  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Well LinkedIn announced recently another bout of job cuts....telling in itself



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,155 ✭✭✭Mr. teddywinkles


    We need more people here to fill all these future job roles. Stop the bull talk. Eternal growth. Without the big boys benefit financially from cheap labour growth in a downward market. Oh never



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭brickster69


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 843 ✭✭✭m2_browning


    Have you and mr CEO tried putting all your saving and investments and pension into Russian economy? Tell us how you get on



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭brickster69


    No, i put it all into the european Petro chemical fund in 2021 instead. Big mistake.

    From April 2022

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 843 ✭✭✭m2_browning


    It’s never too late! Don’t let FOMO get you!!

    I can post a bitcoin address which you can send your life savings which I can then invest in prime Russian bonds and equities to help the motherland and dear leader buy another yacht

    😂



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,620 ✭✭✭brickster69


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,397 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...im in, and being a typical socialist, i ll use others peoples money to!



  • Registered Users Posts: 843 ✭✭✭m2_browning




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,553 ✭✭✭lmimmfn


    Let's be real OP is correct, we are in recession and have been for several quarters.



  • Registered Users Posts: 701 ✭✭✭greyday


    Who is we?

    Most people in Ireland are not yet, the interest rates are only starting to hurt now and take a while to feed through by which time the interest rates should be heading down gain, the lower take up on Pfizer vaccine worldwide was enough to put the Country a quarter away from being in recession in technical terms, there is money in the economy unlike in 2009.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,222 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    I am interested to know why do you think that interest rates should be heading down very soon?

    Living the life



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,105 ✭✭✭Roberto_gas


    best case stagnant rates for 3-4 yrs…they are not going down that fast..its a common strategy rise them fast and reduce them slow…typical ireland rise them last and reduce them last😅😅



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,397 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...the metrics we use to measure the wellbeing of our economies are now almost irreverent to many, and this is more than likely growing, this is a growing trend in many advanced economies, including ireland, hence why more and more are quickly becoming disillusioned by these metrics, and in particular established political parties that base their analysis and decisions upon these metrics....

    ...interest rate pressures are starting to kick in, and unfortunately will lead to increasing business failures, particularly after the christmas bump, so 24 is gonna be rocky to say the least....

    ...there definitely is money in the economy, but this will continue to tighten into 24, so the more this uncertainly grows, the more likely people and businesses will tighten their grip on spending it, and borrowing for that matter....

    .....adds to above, the more tightening occurs, the more likely central banks will react, and the more likely they ll start relaxing rates, i.e. decreasing them, but i just cant see them moving back to zero rates, hopefully we ll never see that again, but there is a chance they will start decreasing rates in 24, but probably extremely slowly, we ll see....



  • Registered Users Posts: 701 ✭✭✭greyday


    The ECB will relax rates next year after the full effects of the rate increases are felt throughout Europe, personally I think we will get very close to the 2% inflation towards the end of 24 rather than in 25 as currently forecast, it generally takes two years for transmission of rate increases to be felt in the economy, if that holds true then we should see further tightening of spending from individuals which inpacts busineses as well, supply chain issues have largely being resolved which also should help to bring inflation down, a softish landing is probable at this stage which can be seen in the recent surge in stock prices.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,155 ✭✭✭Mr. teddywinkles


    So how many crisis have we had to print imagery money up to now. Will there be another to drive inflation higher. Depends on the higher up boyos benefiting from it I suppose. Blood from a turnip comes to mind. Do you have more blood to give? And the phrase being a metaphor for egits.



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