Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

There is a market for hotels and a market for housing.

Some interesting points in this article.

"The latest CSO data indicates there were 4,255 house purchases filed with Revenue in September. This represents a 7.2 per cent decrease compared with the 4,583 purchases in September 2022"

If we are building more and selling less does that mean stock is increasing? Does anyone know the latest Daft stock figures?

If inflation is around 5.4% and house prices in Dublin drop 1.9%% does that mean a real value drop over 7%?

Get a grip.

Where did I saw Airbnbs charge €900 a night? I said I looked at hotels and what used to be Jury’s in Christchurch were charging €900 for the Friday night when Coldplay are in Dublin.

If you took any notice of the article you quoted, it said in some countries like Italy or where strict cancellation terms are applied by the host, then up to 14% fees can be applied to the host. This isn’t Italy, and if you take a look through Airbnb listings, rarely if ever are strict cancellation terms applied. Hosts have the option of setting cancellation terms, most, if not all do not have a strict no refund under any circumstances cancellation policy, why? Because guests won’t book the property if they think they are going to loose their money in the event of cancellation.

Just because something can be done, doesn’t mean it’s done, so I standby my statement, as an Airbnb host, Airbnb take a 3% cut of fees from the host.

And again, you seem to be ignoring the fact that short let owners, like myself, are willing to take a lower income rather than have a tenancy. The fact that there may be less income from shortlet should make it obvious to you that owners are making a determined decision not to rent long term. If restrictions are applied, then there is a good chance hosts will continue to ignore them, or sell to the highest bidder rather than go back to renting.

I haven’t seen where this 30 day stay has come from (Edit: turns out it was from you, without any supporting information, why you are using the number when it doesn’t currently/may never apply is a mystery), the Twitter link posted earlier refers to proposals made a year ago, earlier this week there were articles indicating that the EU had decided on a “light touch” approach to Airbnb, we should know more from today onwards. We just have to wait and see if the regs get more strict, or more relaxed when the full text of the EU decision is published.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/eu-countries-lawmakers-set-agree-light-touch-rules-airbnb-sources-say-2023-11-10/

Stock is increasing I think

What is a "real value"?

The article is nonsense as there is no context given for any of their figures. A 1.9% decline in Dublin while the rest of the country increased by 4% isn't even explained.

Likely because houses on the higher end of the price range are dropping their prices and skewing the figures.

Good article on dynamic pricing, Read an learn to avoid being fleeced where possible

Sorry "real value" is probably not the proper term.

If inflation is 5.5% and house prices stayed the same numeric figure then technically they droped in value as the money it was previously valued at is now worth 5.5% less due to inflation.

Add a 2% decline in the price and you get a 7.5% decline in property prices. Is that wrong?

That makes sense.

So the 30 day limit is not a thing currently?

It was a bizzare strategy by the govt to book up hotels for IPAs whilst concurrently trying to stop AirBnBs operating.

I am not sure where they expected tourists or business travellers to stay, after they had blocked off the usual accomodation options.

Ireland's inflation rate doesn't include the purchase cost of housing.

Inflation is calculcated on the CPI (consumer price index) which is a measure of the changing cost of an imaginary "basket of goods and services" that a typical household may buy.

What's included in this imaginary basket is based on the household budget survey held every 5 years

Mortgages are included, so increasing mortgage rates will cause inflation to increase.

CPI also includes rent as well as mortgage interest. It would be quite hard to pick a baseline to add in housing costs considering the variability across the country is higher than for rent these days

You stated AirBNB charges 3% fees of hosts as fact, a quick Google says from multiple sources its actually up to 14.2%, as I posted one link to show. This is not country dependent, its dependent on the policies the hosts implements for their property. As any research would have told you.

I'm not sure why you seem angry enough about this to post multi-paragraph rants of questionable veracity. Just take the 'L' and admit fault and move on - you're clearly just a little ignorant of the specifics of how AirBNB operates.

+1

I'm all for a massive expansion of social housing in general (the Viennese model) but this is an incredible policy that just reeks of desperation. If there are underutilized social housing units (ie a single person in a 3bed house/apartment) surely the logical thing to do would be to offer that tenant two options - either they move to a smaller unit, or else two other single people will be moved into their larger unit to share with them.

People across the country are paying large amounts of moeny to live in houseshares until their 40s now out of economic necessity, its not too much to expect it of social housing tenants getting massively subsidised housing.

Never mind willing social tenants, it should be mandated that they house share, for people without children at least.

And some people still think we have a centre right govt...unemployed folks profiteering on the back of private housing, rented by the council, the tenant doesnt pay their nominal contribution (even though its given to them by the council inthe first place) and they still get to keep the rent a room money!

I'd love to see Suella Braverman's reaction if that policy was proposed by a Tory.

I wouldn't see it as a saving at all.

As I mentioned previously, there's no explanation why Dublin prices dropped while the rest of the country continues to increase. Since there were less sales overall, it's easier to skew the results. I would imagine there are a few big falls in the €1million+ price range in Dublin, which have masked the many minor increases in the sub €1million range.

If you're in the former category then you're likely saving more than 1.9% compared to last year

If you're in the latter then you're not seeing savings at all.

Either way, you're still paying 20% more on the purchase price of an "average" house today than you were pre-pandemic.

Ignorant of airbnb, I am not, as a host I can just go into my airbnb account and see what fees apply in Ireland.

You are wrong about those fees not being country dependent, in fact one of the links you posted specifically mentions how differing fees apply to different countries due to their rules related to short lets:

Quote:

• Italy, South Korea, China and Germany: Different policies apply for all stays in Italy and for South Korean guests staying at places with Strict cancellation policies. The flexible long-term policy is not available for stays in China. Additionally, if you are a Host in Germany, please make sure that your selected cancellation policy complies with the local requirements. Learn more about cancellations in Germany.

In relation to Ireland, here is what airbnb have on the fees section of the host's account:

Host fee

Most Hosts pay a 3% fee but some pay more, including:

• Hosts with listings in Italy
• Hosts with Super Strict cancellation policies

This fee is calculated from the booking subtotal (nightly rate + cleaning fee + additional guest fee, if applicable – excluding Airbnb fees and taxes) and is automatically deducted from the Host payout.

Guests, however do may a higher service fee when booking, so perhaps in your rush to post/judge, you looked at all fees involved.

Guest fee

Most guest service fees are under 14.2% of the booking subtotal (nightly rate + cleaning fee + additional guest fee if applicable – excluding Airbnb fees and taxes). This fee varies based on a variety of factors and is shown during checkout before you book so that you know what to expect. For some stays over three months, the Airbnb guest service fee is reduced after the third month.

Or perhaps you were thinking of host-only fees charged to hospitality specific listings like hotels, serviced apartments etc, or in certain country dependent locations:

2. Host-only fee

With this structure, the entire fee is deducted from the Host payout. It’s typically 14–16% although Hosts with Super Strict cancellation policies may pay more and fees for monthly stays may be less. 

This fee is mandatory for traditional hospitality listings – such as hotels, serviced apartments, etc., as well as software-connected Hosts (unless most of their listings are in the USA, Canada, the Bahamas, Mexico, Argentina, Taiwan or Uruguay). 

So you are absolutely wrong to say it is not country dependent, and few if any listings that I have seen in Ireland have the "super strict cancellation policies" which I'm going to leave you to look up.

So your calculations, and assumptions comparing airbnb income to tenancies as they apply to Irish hosts are flawed, not just in your lack of understanding of how airbnb works in this country, but also in your 30 day term, which currently does not apply here, and which may never apply here. Even at 90 days, which would work out at most weekends of the year, at my average listing price, I would earn only slightly less than a tenancy.

Whether it is 3%, or even 14%, obviously hosts are willing to accept less income in order to not have tenants. Let's just leave it at that.