Will the greens be in government after the next general election?

To be in government you need to be elected TD, they will have some but will have a bad general election, they are the government scapegoat to many people,it will take a couple of elections for the taint to wear off again,so I think any parties forming a government would be reluctant to involve them unless there are no other options.

I highly doubt they will return many TD's as they lost too many active campaigners who believed they should not have gone into govt with FF/FG. That's a lot of knowledge and trust gone.

They also will see their transfers affected as the "Vote Left, Transfer Left" crowd will hopefully now realise that our Green Party is not a left wing party.

I’d say Catherine will be safe enough. Her middle class constituents will vote green for conscience.

Here are two projections:

I'm hoping the current government stay in power but I'm not confident of that happening.

Although obviously not perfect and they've made lots of mistakes, there's a huge amount of experience and competence in the current government. Also all the personal connections they've built up in that time.

I really like the work Eamon Ryan is doing. Also the housing crisis is at an inflection point too.

I don't trust SF in power whatsoever, but maybe if they're in coalition with FF, it might keep them under control.

Any party that has the likes of Johnathan Dowdall and Paddy Holohan as councillors I want nothing to do with.

The Green Party seems to come and go in waves. This time the tide will go out for them. Their core vote is middle class urban types and young people. I think young people will switch to SF. The middle urban types will be worried about SF so will vote FF/FG.

Their rural public transport scheme is very good but won't result in any seats as they'll never be popular in rural areas.

I hope lots of their policies stay in place though.

600 people a week are getting domestic solar now. That's 31,200 a year.

I dont see new road being a priority unless they are to facilitate bus/cycle travel.

The govt will be discouraging car use, regardless of whether the Greens are in govt or not.

True that some Green voters will move to FFG to keep SF out.

I dont see the Greens figuring at all in the next election.

Out of their 12 TDs, how many will keep their seats?

Eamon Ryan, Catherine Martin, Neasa Hourigan, Brian Leddin, Roderick O'Gorman, Malcolm Noonan, Ossian Smyth, Joe O'Brien, Marc Ó Cathasaigh, Patrick Costello, Francis Duffy, Steven Matthews

I still see them keeping 5 or 6 seats.

It's hard to know.

Safe : ER, CM, JOB, NH

Close : OS

Gone: ROG, MN, BL, MOC, PC, FD, SM

ROG is definitely gone although I like him.

Because SD won’t go into power with FG/FF. Indies that large would be a major pain and you’d be looking at a new election in less than 18 months.

The Greens can point at a long list of policies they've implemented.

The thing is people don't care too much about Climate Change even if their home or business has been flooded.

It's difficult to know. I don't know their perception at local level.

Neasa Hourigan and JOB both come across very well to me but who knows.

SF will definitely rise on a populist wave.

I'm hoping that the current government stay in place but they'll need the SDs to form a majority. They did perform an economic miracle and the housing situation is a symptom of that.

I like Malcolm Noonan also but I'm not sure how he's perceived at a local level.

I like the GP so I might be in denial.

Lol.

I have a soft spot for them. I think they've lots of competence and I like their ethos.

I think we'll end up with loads of SF nutters as TDs like Paddy Holohan and Johnathan Dowdell and it'll be scandal after scandal.

I think the next election will the "haves v have-nots".

It will be a "change" election. Mary Lou kept repeating that word in her recent speech.

Dublin West has changed from a four-seater to a five-seater. That gives O'Gorman a chance.

Some of which have been kicked down the road by Ryan himself also, like the N17 upgrades Knock to Collooney - one of the worst sections of trunk road in the country.

Imagine the tax fest on the working person if SF and the Greens got into power together.

I think SF will struggle to find a second credible candidate in many constituencies but they'll be forced to run someone.

If there's a "vote left, transfer left" movement, someone like Ruth Coppinger could take ROG's seat.

I dont think those events are enough to push the average voter away from sticking with their first preference, if that first preference isnt the Green Party.

FF seem happy with FG despite being rivals for 100 years.

It might come down to SDs also.

Maybe Labour can come in from the cold also.

They had the chance and they didn’t. They had talks after the last election, and swiftly said no.

I feel the same way.

I don't trust SF at all but they'll definitely be the biggest party in next election.

It's to encourage recycling.

Public transport schemes are to encourage a modal shift, although I know that's not possible for many people.

The rural transport scheme is very good and will not get them any votes, but they did it regardless.

https://carlow-nationalist.ie/2023/11/19/10000-passengers-a-week-are-using-bus-service/

600 people a week are getting domestic solar installed. This with the feed in tariff means people have no electricity bills for half the year.

The LocalLink buses have been brilliant for rural Ireland particularly for elderly or disabled and people without cars. This won't get any votes or seats for the GP. Other parties wouldn't have bothered because they prefer to build roads and cut the ribbon.