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World Politics Digest thread

1235

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Turkey are finally reversing their disastrous monetary policy. Presumably now that Erdogan's safely been reelected he feels he can allow this to happen. They've gone from 8.5% --> 15% and they may need to jump more given how bad inflation is over there.





  • Posts: 13,688 ✭✭✭✭ Maia Prickly Traitor


    A candidate in Ecuador's forthcoming presidential election has been shot dead at a campaign rally.

    Fernando Villavicencio, a member of the country's national assembly, was attacked as he left the event in the northern city of Quito on Wednesday.

    A member of his campaign team told local media Mr Villavicencio was getting into a car when a man stepped forward and shot him in the head.

    Current president Guillermo Lasso vowed the "crime will not go unpunished".

    Witnesses said Mr Villavicencio, 59, was shot three times.




  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    I knew Argentina was having some more of its periodic problems with the economy, but yikes: I hadn't realised it was about to dip into full insanity as a political choice.

    In one corner of the ring stands Javier Milei, 52, self-described former tantric sex coach, outsider anarcho-capitalist and frontrunner in Argentina’s upcoming presidential elections; in the other, his compatriot Pope Francis, 86, world champion of the poor, repeatedly derided by Argentina’s likely next president as “a **** communist” and “the representative of the evil one on Earth” for promoting the doctrine of “social justice” to aid the underprivileged.

    Milei, a political unknown until 2020, has pledged to wage a “cultural battle” to transform Argentina into a libertarian paradise where capitalist efficiency replaces social assistance, taxes are reduced to a minimum and cash-strapped individuals are allowed to sell their body organs on the open market.

    Humanist is not a term that could be applied to Milei’s economics. Apart from legalising the sale of body organs, his spiky agenda proposes “dynamiting” the Central Bank, abolishing Argentina’s tuition-free public education system and disbanding free public health services. Milei is also treading fearlessly into anti-woke territory saying he will reinstate the ban on abortion, legalised in 2020, shut down the ministry of women, gender and diversity, as well as the ministries of science – “climate change is a socialist lie” – health, education, labour and public works, and will legalise the sale of firearms.

    Milei is aware of the likelihood of violent street protests. “I’m going to put the leaders of those who throw stones in jail and if they surround the Casa Rosada [the presidential palace] they’re going to have to carry me out dead,” he said recently. More pragmatically, he has announced plans to incorporate the military into battling the “new threats” of narco gangs, human traffickers and possibly internal strife.

    In a country that will celebrate four decades of uninterrupted democracy after decades of military rule when the new president takes office on 10 December 10, the prospect of the military reassuming a role in “internal conflicts” is raising alarms.

    What could possibly go wrong? Funny cos I had only remarked the other day that populism appeared to be on the wane; but sounds like Argentines are already suffering and thus, turning to loud promises based on classic libertarian canards. I can't see it ending well, especially for a country with an open wound relating to dictatorship.




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,215 ✭✭✭Good loser


    I think inflation is over 100% - fourth worst in world - so current Govt is hopeless. Frying pan/fire options.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    I was going to say that being a Libertarian who opposes the right to an abortion seems like a massive contradiction but then I googled it and it seems like it's a thing with some of them:





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,161 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Libertarian seems to just be a conservative that wants to pay no tax.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,612 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Plus often in favour of legalising some drugs - the ones they use specifically and solely; plus often with opinions on age of consent that would not be particularly popular either; from my experience of having to deal with some of them.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Basically. That kinda cuts to the quick of the whole "ideology", though I've often enjoyed the (admittedly sexist) snark that it's "astrology for men".

    I've often joked that no single rebellion or popular movement has existed, or even successful, off the back of pure and brazen libertarianism: whilst it might have a tragic effect on the Argentine economy and its people, we may yet get that test case.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I always see Libertarianism as pure selfishness wrapped up as a political ideology - ideal for people in a country who have never learned how to share.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 92,624 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    A bunch of Me Feinners who are only too happy to piggyback off the rest of society.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,337 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Dianne Feinstein, longest-serving female US senator in history, dies at 90

    Feinstein’s death, confirmed to CNN by a source familiar, will hand California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom the power to appoint a lawmaker to serve out the rest of Feinstein’s term. In March 2021, Newsom publicly said he had a list of “multiple” replacements and pledged to appoint a Black woman if Feinstein, a Democrat, were to retire.




  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    I was only googling her the other day, lamenting the incredible percentage of septuagenarians and older that hold sway within the corridors of power in the US;



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,368 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    The polish election is being called the biggest polish election since 1989, and there’s pictures of poles in lines all around Europe waiting to vote.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,612 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Hoping against hope that their far right populist just takes votes off PiS and they get a government suitable for this century out of it



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,161 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Feels like it could be a seismic election but I don't hold out much hope for fair democracy in elections in countries like this.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,337 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    It's not so much voter corruption as a society that's not moved on as far as the west; I recall a shooting in one of these countries where a local ganster opened up fire on another in a shopping mall killing an innocent child in the process. The comment from a work collegue was when I brought it up "Oh but it was only a gypsy". Now this was an four year university degree person with years of work experience so not your average inbreed hilly billy kind of person but it gives an idea that certain things really sit deeply ingrained.

    Anyway; back to the election, initial slightly positive chance of a government change coming taken from here based on a 90 000 random voter selection at 900 polling stations (so larger polling than normal).

    The exit poll for today’s parliamentary elections in Poland indicates that the ruling national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) has, as expected, won the largest share of the vote, with 36.8%.

    However, if that vote share is confirmed in the official results – which are due to be announced by Tuesday – it is almost certain not to be enough to secure the governing majority PiS needs to remain in power for an unprecedented third term.

    The centrist Civic Coalition (KO) is in second with 31.6%. Its potential partners in forming a new coalition government, the centre-right Third Way (13%) and The Left (8.6%), are third and fourth respectively, according to the exit poll, which was conducted by Ipsos.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 11,433 Mod ✭✭✭✭Hermy


    “Oh but it was only a four year university degree person with years of work experience so not your average inbreed hilly billy kind of person.”

    Completely off topic I know but I think the double standard is worth noting.

    Hopefully the exit poll holds true.

    Genealogy Forum Mod



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,161 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    I wouldn't be worried about actual clear voter fraud but the ability that the ruling party have to control the narrative is a huge hurdle for the opposition.

    Polls are looking good so far and the opposition seem pretty buoyant.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,337 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    The election — which ended with a record turnout of 74.4 percent — saw PiS return as the largest party, but without the ability to form a winning coalition in the 460-member lower house of parliament.

    The final count had PiS with 35.4 percent, followed by the centrist Civic Coalition at 30.7 percent, the center-right Third Way at 14.4 percent, the Left with 8.6 percent and the far-right Confederation with 7.2 percent.

    That means Law and Justice takes 194 seats in parliament, Civic Coalition gets 157, Third Way 65, the Left 26 and Confederation 18.

    Civic Coalition, led by former Prime Minster and European Council President Donald Tusk, the Third Way and the Left have pledged to form a coalition government to oust PiS from power — together they have 248 seats.

    The opposition also boosted its control of the less powerful upper chamber Senate, winning 66 seats to 34 for Law and Justice.

    Taken from here.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,398 ✭✭✭Cody montana


    Sergio Massa, Argentina's economy minister, produced a big surprise by finishing first in the opening round of the country's presidential election, reflecting voter wariness about his chief rival, a right-wing populist who upended national politics.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,337 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody



    It's a sad day when someone makes Bolsonaro look sane by comparison but I could see him go through on similar notes as Trump simply for the hail marry outsider choice. Could easily lead to another military coup in some form following the crash of the state and the economy that he'd engineer esp. considering the VP is complaining the people who lead the last military coup are being accused unfairly (the fact over 30.000 people "disappeared" is not talked about). Either way I think Argentina's economy is crashing; the only question is how hard and for how long.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,776 ✭✭✭eire4


    Given the disappointing election of Fick in Slovakia the Polish results were a welcome step in a more hopeful direction.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,215 ✭✭✭Good loser


    The extra votes for Massa this time around were 'bought'. The third candidate (now eliminated) was centre right and a decent prospect; she will work with Milei who still has a chance.

    Massa took over in July last year and since then inflation has increased from 79% to 138%. How anyone could vote for him????



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,261 ✭✭✭HalloweenJack


    If Milei wins, it'll be interesting to see how his libertarian project goes. I don't have high hopes but evidently Argentina's repeated economic failures would suggest that a new approach would be popular.

    I don't know enough about Argentina to understand why it has been such a mess for the last twenty/thirty years but out of control inflation is nothing new, especially now when inflation is a problem in a globalised economy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,161 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    It's been a mess for a lot longer that 20/30 years. It was run by the military from 1930s to the 80s with only brief respites. Horrible mismanagement of what was once a strong economy and less value placed on the natural resources that made it strong were factors.

    It's still in G20 which means their must be money in there somewhere or else the rest of the world really is a shtshow.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,215 ✭✭✭Good loser


    Wasn't Peron the start of the slippery slope? Like Chavez in Venezuela.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Argentina going to the polls today; man what a bananas outcome that could yet yield. Just shows how wild a swing a population can take when pushed to desperation. Milei sounds like an absolute car crash waiting to happen, yet I can understand where his support comes from



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,261 ✭✭✭HalloweenJack


    Of course, if it ends in tears, it'll be because he wasn't allowed to do what he wants/needs and there is a shadowy elite cabal (that much-loved far-right word) in the background making sure he fails.

    I actually find libertarianism ideas to be interesting but just too disastrous to really succeed. If there was a risk-free 'economy simulator', it'd be interesting to see how it'd play out. Unfortunately, you're playing with people's lives, even more dangerous in a place that has such a fragile economic history as Argentina.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,398 ✭✭✭Cody montana


    BREAKING: Javier Milei wins Argentinian presidential election




  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    A breakdown on the maniac about to take the reigns - though as the article notes, his party falls far short of a majority that he could enact his more insane proposals:




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,161 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Safe to assume Argentina isn't gonna stop being a sht show over the next few years.

    (Not that his defeat would have prevented that either.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    No. I suppose the "best" they could hope for is that a few demographics might do well if Milei's threatened "reforms" come to pass, but it'll also further impoverish huge tracts of the country at the same time if he really goes to town with the wilder ideas.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Is there any other country that mirrors Argentina in that it was an economic powerhouse at the start of the 20th century and is now....well a bit of a joke.

    David McWilliams has an Argentinian economist friend who he has on as a guest on his podcast now and then. One thing that I always remember him saying when asked to explain what's happened there for decades is "The Argentinian middle classes are great patriots when it comes to dressing up in the national colours and supporting our sports teams. However they are not great patriots when it comes to the fundamentals of civil society such as paying their taxes."

    They seem to be in a vicious cycle of electing populists, who trash the economy, then running to the IMF which puts hardship on the bulk of the people who elect populists once more and rinse and repeat. The only difference this time is that it's not the left-wing Peronist populists but this "anarcho-captialist" libertarian fever dream.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,161 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Seems to be a very common middle and upper class attitude in South America. In most countries there is a massive racial split where the "white" Spanish middle/upper class almost literally do live in a different country to the poor and indigenous.

    Don't think that is the case in Argentina though or if it is you don't hear about "black" or indigenous Argentina as much.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,261 ✭✭✭HalloweenJack


    This is veering into anecdotal territory but from what I've heard from Brazilian friends in my time in Brazil and my brother who lives in Chile, Argentinians (and Chileans to a lesser extent) see themselves as more European than South American.

    I think Mauricio Macri said something to this effect with comments about Brazil when he visited Spain a while back.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    I think that flips both ways. I did the Inca Trail years ago. All the porters were from the indigenous Quechua community. They referred to the descendants of the Europeans, who dominate the power structures in Peru, as "The Spanish".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭mistersifter


    Interesting to see the only other country mentioned by Milei in his victory speech was Ireland. Said he wants to replicate the success of the Irish economy. I assume he's referring to stuff like corporation tax and not housing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    He seems like a bit of a one-man band. Very few members of the upper or lower house are affiliated with him. Can he do much if he's opposed in those Houses? I'm not that familiar with the powers of the Argentinian executive branch. Seems like a lot of the Latin American countries copy & pasted the American system and we know that that's easily gridlocked. Pedro Castillo got elected in Peru a few years ago as an unknown left wing populist but struggled to get anything enacted and generally led a chaotic regime before being impeached (at the third attempt) and ousted.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭mistersifter


    yeah, never has anyone with fewer seats in congress been elected president. It seems Milei's election was a vote against the same old corrupt Kirchnerist/Personist politics, which Massa represented.

    Former president Macri has offered his support so this will improve Milei's chances of making changes but it will be difficult to achieve his most extreme aims like scrapping the peso and central bank, and dollarizing the economy (getting rid of the national currency might require amending the constitution).

    I think he has already back-tracked on some of this and other stuff like legalising the sale of organs, less gun controls, but he has re-committed to privatising public broadcasting and energy, and doing away with ministries for women/diversity/culture.

    The energy issue is interesting as it's heavily subsidised - electricity costs almost nothing and petrol about 25 cent per litre. Similar with public transport in Buenos Aires. And Argentinians are struggling as is, so how will they react to increased costs under Milei. They're in for a tough few years so it might be back to Kirchnerism after this term.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    How does one do away with the Central Bank and survive as an economy? This bit baffles me greatly, albeit as one whose grasp of finance is tenuous at the best of times. Is there even a sniff of a rationale behind this that it could work, that a Central Bank could be a potential net negative on the economy <somehow>? I don't know if any credible country who got rid of their Central Bank and did well.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,398 ✭✭✭Cody montana


    I think he’s said everything and anything to try to get elected.

    We all know how this is going to end.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,161 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Switching to the dollar sounds like the kind of thing you would hear from some know it all down the pub.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,414 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    It was a cause of big political division in the US in its early years. Serious political opposition to idea of a central bank slash federal reserve.

    Alexander Hamilton and then Henry Clay Whigs in favour.

    Jeffersonian and Jackson Democrats opposed it.


    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Thanks. Stands to reason the one country who'd oppose government oversight would be America; but overall I couldn't possibly imagine, ignorant of finance as I am, what even the desperate of Argentina would see as beneficial here. Though I suppose it might feed into the blather of "anarch-capitalism" as opposed by this charlatan President.

    In other news: how is Putin's relationship with Venezuela? Chalk this up as a dispute I wasn't even aware of, but looks like we're heading for another flashpoint scenario. An issue that's centuries old at this stage, but perhaps Venezuela's dead economy possibly incentivising the government to look for a border conflict as a distraction. and I'm sure Venezuela's sudden interest in the Western region has nothing to do with Guyana's sudden oil-based wealth. Nooo no no no.

    The broadly excellent (occasional basic information f'up notwithstanding) TLDR channel has gone into the ins, outs and potential crisis coming.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,931 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...take a close look at whats currently unfolding in many dollarized developing nations, particularly since fed rate rises! do you really wanna be at the whim of another countries central banks policies!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,161 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    It's nonsense that a country the size of Argentina are even having the conversation. Shows just had badly that place is run.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,931 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...or shows what desperate people do, i.e. turn to despots, tis probably in the post for here to, especially if the next couple of governments are deemed a failure here!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,489 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    I watched that same video a few days ago. Obviously a blatant attempt at a resources grab by the Maduro regime given the timing of this just as Guyana has hit the jackpot. Still though the roots of it lie in the Brits drawing a line arbitrarily on a map a long long time ago. I'll add it to the list:

    • Ireland
    • Israel/Palestine
    • India/Pakistan
    • Guatemala/Belize (very similar to this dispute)
    • A whole bunch of African countries where countries were created with warring tribes e.g. Nigeria, Cameroon
    • Iraq (same story as above)


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,711 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    At least in this case, it seemed (heavy emphasis there) like the Brits tried to draw along a natural geographic border, and not just the ruler drawn straight-lines eteched across the map of Africa. But yeah it does come down to yet another case of a ticking post-colonial timebomb, this time exacerbated by a neighbour itching for a distraction - and presumably believing it could annex Guyana without much intervention (especially given all that's going down in Israel + Ukraine)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,603 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Is there any other country that mirrors Argentina in that it was an economic powerhouse at the start of the 20th century and is now....well a bit of a joke.

    Uruguay perhaps. Was relatively wealthy until the Great Depression (hosted the first football World Cup in 1930) then suffered badly with a collapse in the market for its agricultural produce. Has been doing much better this century.

    Scrap the cap!



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