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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,305 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Tangential but: I see Geert Wilders' party won in Holland today and perhaps most notable and relevant to here - and not something I'd have known - was that he's promising a referendum on Dutch membership of the EU; that has to please the Brexit rump today with much belated validation for their hitherto solo self-sanction.

    I wonder if Wilders' promise has any legs at all, wouldn't know how pro EU Holland generally was: surely being wedged between so much of the EU cutting themselves off would be very impractical?



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,547 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    One rather stark contrast is that he will need to form a coalition to actually get into power of which his party will be at most 50% of.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,105 ✭✭✭yagan


    35 seats out of 150 seat house. Not an earthquake, but certainly a warning.

    It does show ultimately how the binary voting in the US and UK does allow extremes more prominence.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,462 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    It better not! I've spent a sizeable portion of the week applying for jobs in the Netherlands.

    More seriously, he'll have to go into coalition and most parties there won't touch him with a flagpole. Last poll I saw put Dutch support for EU membership at 66%. I think it's a step too far for most Dutch people. It's been an outward free-trading nation for much longer than the UK has. I don't think their media is anywhere near as toxic as what we have here.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,652 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Pretty similar levels to Le Pen who read the room post Brexit and has quietly dropped Frexit.

    Note also the spoofers in Italy who went from Itexit to leaving the Euro to doing absolutely nothing once in power.

    I'm sure Wilders will Sinn Fein style bang on about a mandate from the opposition benches but 25% is no mandate.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 26,420 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Dutch politicians do not operate in a Westminster style environment in which the party that secures most votes is considered to have "won" the election even when three-quarters of the voters have rejected them. All Dutch governments are coalition governments; being the largest party in Parliament doesn't give you a "mandate" to be in government. It does put you in pole position when it comes to negotiating a coalition, but that comes with a responsibility to enter the negotiations on the understanding that you haven't secured a majority for your policies and you aren't entitled to throw a hissy fit if other parties don't like them.

    Right now, Wilders will want to look like a Prime Minster in waiting. In the context of Netherlands politics, that means the last thing he will do is go around honking into the sky about his "mandate" to leave the EU, or whatever. On the contrary, he'll be a model of sweet reason, emphasising his willingness to build bridges, do deals, find common ground, and generally behave like a grown-up.

    That means that any talk of an exit referendum will be sidelined. What Wilders will focus on is the elements of his party platform that align with the platforms of the parties he needs to form a coalition with. The two parties he needs (and, on the figures, he needs both of them) are the VVD and the recently established NSC. Both are parties of the centre-right; the VVD is very much committed to the EU, and the NSC is not opposed to it. The NSC in particular is not keen on Wilders or his party, and will require some persuasion that Wilders is capable of meeting accepted political standards for a national leader.

    Wilders won't push the idea of an exit referendum. Neither of the other parties would be attracted by the idea, and such a referendum is bound to fail anyway, so why expect political capital on it? Plus it's the kind of populist shîte that would alarm rather than reassure his prospective coalition partners. Expect him to focus on the issues of immigration and small government.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,652 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    The "mandate" I was talking about was Sinn Fein supporters felling cheated because the largest party didn't get to be in charge. The SF voters on Boards spent ages trying to discredit PR voting.

    On the EU I totally agree. There will be no mention of it either in negotiations or even if he did find himself in charge. None of these populists actually believe in leaving the EU. Case in point is their hero the cowardly Orban.



  • Registered Users Posts: 34,648 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Same as the crowd in Poland who were walking behind the Polexit banners the other week even as their country accepts billions of euro in EU aid. If the EU offends them so much they could always decline this money.

    Fingal County Council are certainly not competent to be making decisions about the most important piece of infrastructure on the island. They need to stick to badly designed cycle lanes and deciding on whether Mrs Murphy can have her kitchen extension.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,600 ✭✭✭rock22


    Not true, the problem with the last coalition talks was that SF was excluded from coalition negotiation.

    As @Peregrinus says "being the largest party in Parliament doesn't give you a "mandate" to be in government. It does put you in pole position when it comes to negotiating a coalition, "

    I think most SF voters would have expected other parties might respect the fact that, of all parties, SF represented the greater number of the popular vote and should have been included in any talks to form a government. . And of course the same thing might happen again. At least in Netherlands, the other parties do seem to recognise that Wilders, however they might dislike him, did win the most seats of any party..



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,945 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    They weren't excluded, both FF and FG ran on a promise to not go into government with SF, regardless of the election results that was the promise and they stuck to it. Politicians are constantly given out about for not sticking to their promises, here they did stick to them and the usual suspects are still unhappy.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 25,652 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    I was once witness to an anti immigration rally in London populated by mostly Polish groups.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,462 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    The cleverer people are, the more likely they were to vote to stay in the European Union, a study has found.

    Among those Britons in the top 10 per cent by a measure of cognitive performance, 73 per cent voted remain in 2016. Among those in the bottom 10 per cent, only 40 per cent did.

    The relationship persisted, albeit less strongly, even when taking into account factors such as income, education and age, implying that it was not solely a reflection of cultural effects. It also remained when the scientists looked at couples in which husbands and wives voted in different ways. The remain-voting partner was, they found, more likely to do better on cognitive tests.

    Chris Dawson, from the University of Bath — a remain voter — said that people should be wary of interpreting his findings. “People shouldn’t get angry with this, or joyful, depending on who they voted for,” he said. “This is about differences at a population level. If you drew two random people who voted leave or remain, it says very little about differences that might exist between those people.”

    Nevertheless, the population difference was significant. According to the findings, only the cleverest third of leave voters would be classed as of above average intelligence among remain voters.

    Boris Johnson was a prominent campaigner for leaving the European Union

    Boris Johnson was a prominent campaigner for leaving the European Union

    CARL COURT/GETTY IMAGES

    The results came from analysing an on-running longitudinal study called Understanding Society. Since 2009 this has been following a nationally representative sample of households, collecting a wealth of data, including their performance on a suite of standardised tests. These tests involved assessments of reasoning, working memory and numeracy. More recently, it added questions about how people voted in the 2016 referendum.

    Dawson and his colleagues looked at 3,183 couples involved in the study.

    They also looked at the 463 heterosexual married couples who had voted in different ways but had managed to get through the referendum without divorcing. The fact that Brexit voting half in these couples was also on average the poorer cognitive performer was especially interesting, Dawson said. “If you have people living in the same household, having the same experiences of living in the UK, it controls for so much.”

    Other scientists warned that although the study did appear to find a link between intelligence and voting intention, it could not be used to say definitively that it was causal — that the reason people voted leave was because they were less clever.

    “There’s an obvious temptation, perhaps particularly if one takes a certain set of views about the referendum, the campaign and its outcome, to assume that the finding of an association between measures of cognitive ability and the way people voted in the Brexit referendum means that having lower cognitive ability caused people to be more likely to vote Leave,” Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of statistics at the Open University, said. “While this research doesn’t rule that possibility out, it certainly can’t establish that it’s true.”

    Establishing causality, rather than only correlation, is a standard problem with observational studies such as this. “People who voted in different ways in the referendum differed in a great number of respects other than their cognitive ability,” McConway said. “Some of those other differences may have been correlated with cognitive ability, but not caused by cognitive ability.”

    Even so, Dawson said, in his view there were plausible reasons that intelligence may have been be one factor. “It’s an uncomfortable thing to say, but I think it’s important to be said. We have increasing amounts of fake news and it’s getting more and more sophisticated.”

    He said there was evidence that misinformation had played a role in the Brexit vote, and that cognitive ability was one factor determining whether people could spot fake news. “This suggests that something we all have to live with is essentially the result of people being able to spread fake information and fake promises that some people just couldn’t distinguish from reality.”

    Just another study showing how anti-intellectual the Brexit ideology is/was. A series of simplistic sophistries designed to appeal to the lowest common denominator and spread on social media like wildfire has led us here. They're still at it with their culture war nonsense but it's getting harder and harder for them to hide their incompetence, stupidity and venality.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,305 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Don't think people like being called dumb, especially when perhaps subconsciously they know they fúcked up: so can't see this study doing anything except further driving a wedge between the Brexit hardcore or at least potentially penitent, and the Remainer cohort, such as it is now. Not that it isn't a little satisfying to read that statistically speaking, the Brexit voting folk were indeed thick as mince.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,954 ✭✭✭Christy42


    They weren't excluded and if you go about forcing the largest party into government people will forming other parties ruining the benefits of coalitions in terms of giving voices to different opinions. Instead it will end up anti X joining together and anti joining together and everyone voting against what they don't want instead of what they actually want.



    FF and FG voters voted for parties who stated they would not go into coalition with sf. That was a large block of voters voting specifically to exclude sf that you want ignored because their votes were split between two parties. I get politicians break a lot of promises, it is another to feel like they should be obliged to break their promises.


    The Netherlands will get a new government but they will need to find 50% that can work together and agree on things. There is no I got 25% of the vote so you need to find a coalition that does what I say nonsense like the UK.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,420 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Ireland has numerous times had coalition governments which did not include the party that won the largest share of the vote. Putting together a coalition is not a question of simply mashing together the parties that got the largest number of votes; it makes much more sense, and has a much more robust democratic justification, if it composed of parties who have similar principles, positions and policies.

    So, on the one had, a party that gets more votes than any other is in pole position for coalition negotiations. On the other hand, a party that positions itself as an anti-establishment party seriously handicaps itself in coalition negotiations. No party can expect to benefit from one factor but be unaffected by the other.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,600 ✭✭✭rock22


    I don't argue that the party with the largest number of seats should automatically form part of the government. As you say the largest party has often been excluded.

    I was responding to @breezy1985 who wrote "The "mandate" I was talking about was Sinn Fein supporters felling cheated because the largest party didn't get to be in charge. The SF voters on Boards spent ages trying to discredit PR voting."

    The point i was trying, not very successfully, to make was that SF supporters complained about SF being excluded rather than saying that SF had a mandate to form a government. I don't remember anyone suggesting that the ;largest party should be the government.

    Anyway , this is probably off topic in this thread.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,105 ✭✭✭yagan


    Nothing really new in this euronews piece about British retirees in Spain, but it reiterates again the undeniable impact Brexit has had Brits purchasing power compared to other nations.

    Brexit has also thrown a spanner into the works, impacting the lives of many Brits in Spain. 

    Dr Hall notes many of those living off "really low incomes", especially state pensions, were hit hard by the depreciation of the pound following Britain's decision to leave the European Union.  

    "They can't afford to go meet their friends in the restaurant or bar... as their disposable income has disappeared so has their social life," she says, highlighting cases where elderly people have ended up sleeping on the beach because they are unable to pay their rent. 

    Going back before Brexit I met older English people who had retired to Australia who were having to consider moving back as the Aussie dollar had strengthened on resource demand from China while the British pound had plummeted after the financial implosion of 08.

    Other bits from the Euronews piece.

    Another issue he points to is that Spain’s social care system is not as big as Britain's, with Spanish families expected to provide more support for sick or elderly relatives, compared to a “more individualistic” UK. 

    “It can be very frustrating and perplexing for Spanish people when they find a poor English person with dementia in their garden.”

    We've talked about wintering in Spain when we're older, but we'd definitely remain based in Ireland for when we'd struggle to live independently. As is we look after elderies here, just like the Spanish seem to do.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,652 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    That last Euronews comment is very unfair. Of course retirees living in a foreign country won't have the family supports of the local who's garden they have strayed into.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,105 ✭✭✭yagan


    What's unfair about it?

    It just jars with Spanish expectations of how families help eachother. The thought of interdependence is an anathema to individualistic societies like Britain and the US. We took in our elderlies once they could no longer live alone. Carehomes are massively dependent on immigrant labour, but as the western world ages competition for such staff will only intensify, so it makes sense to make nice with your younger generations.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,462 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    It might make sense but in the UK, older people vote for their entrenched privileges and some seem to actively enjoy the deterioration in quality of life experienced by younger people.

    The long-standing British practice of dumping elderly folks into homes staffed by the cheapest employees available won't change soon, sadly.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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  • Registered Users Posts: 25,652 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Because those Spanish people are not seeing what British care or British culture towards the elderly is like.

    What they are seeing is older British people isolated from their families in a foreign country.

    It's like me commenting on healthcare Pakistan because my neighbours in Ireland are from there.

    Who is this "we" when you say took in our elderly. Do you mean your family because the UK is really no different to Ireland except for the fact we still have a younger population for now. The generation currently in their 50/60s are really the first Irish generation to have truely elderly parents.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,105 ✭✭✭yagan


    The baby boomer generation are actually the exception to the norm, so I can see why they wouldn't have planned for their dotage when most things in their lives they took for granted like the NHS and housing were fought for by the previous generations.

    I can't find a link but I read a few weeks ago that the rate at which people died alone at home in England didn't drop after the pandemic. It does happen in Ireland, but of the local cases I know all were of people who had moved to where they had no links, so when they weren't seen in a while it was assumed that they had gone back home.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,105 ✭✭✭yagan


    That's not entirely true. Thanks to mass emigration we actually had one of the oldest demographics in the 1930 to the 1950s. Intergenerational households were the norm, certainly were in my family and still are now.

    We could end up with similar issues like the UK as we age again, but we are a very different society. I think it's to do with the depersonalisation of the industrial revolution that created such individualism.

    Brexit itself is analogous to an aging person refusing to accept their dependence on society for their dotage.

    Edit to add, the high priestess of fundamental individualism Ayn Rand actually ended up needing social care paid for by the city when she could no longer look after herself.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,652 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    "That's not entirely true. Thanks to mass emigration we actually had one of the oldest demographics in the 1930 to the 1950s. Intergenerational households were the norm, certainly were in my family and still are now"

    We may have had households with an older average age but the generation that would be my grandparents or older have little or no experience of caring truely elderly parents like we have now. Life expectancy was way lower.

    I think you are doing a lot of patting on the back about Ireland and so is that Spanish person. The numbers of elderly living with family in Ireland are pretty small. I'm not really buying any of this pseudo academic stuff about individualistic society.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,105 ✭✭✭yagan


    Have you lived in England or the US?

    I have and any similarities between them and Ireland were superficial.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,652 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Spent half my adult life in the UK.

    Moved home to work for the HSE in geriatric healthcare.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,105 ✭✭✭yagan


    Fair enough.

    We lived there for three years and I found it very different to the community society I'm used to.

    I actually found Australia easier to understand, probably because the necessity to cooperate to get anything done in such a vast place.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,462 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I immediately found the UK to be much, much more individualistic than Ireland. I remember being quite shocked. My Dutch colleague wished me failure on my most recent job applications in her country as well.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,526 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Seriously???

    We're they being deliberately mean or just envious of you wanting to move on or what?



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,462 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Oh, I was talking to her about the recent Dutch elections.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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