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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,305 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Britain's key post Brexit trade deal now shown to be even more useless than it was already suspected: adding a mere 0.04% to the economy in the long term, compared with a generous 1% once upon a time.




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,943 ✭✭✭6541


    I saw this on YouTube. This makes for uncomfortable viewing from an Irish point of view. We need to start planning for a confident post Brexit Britain.

    ##Mod Note##

    Please don't just dump a video.

    Thanks

    Post edited by Quin_Dub on


  • Registered Users Posts: 615 ✭✭✭Mr Disco


    Most of that is gibberish and factually incorrect with a mix of misguided predictions



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,461 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    This again. A video dump with nothing of substance.

    Brexit has happened. Confidence won't change anything. We're doing fine.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,945 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Ive had this guy pop up in my recommendations a few times recently, i gave him a try but cant shake the feeling that hes just playing the same game as Nostradamus, he makes grand geopolitical predictions on a daily basis and even a broken clock is right twice a day. His calm demeanor and ability to waffle using large words is what sets him apart and makes him seem authoritative and knowledgeable but in reality hes just throwing darts blindfolded especially when it comes to anything outside North America.

    Also his perception of Ireland is about 15+ years out of date, im guessing maybe that was the last time he visited.... "cultural development has been stunted"...... and his critique of our food is nonsense. He claims we have an inability to support a large population which im guessing hes basing on our population stats and means he has no clue about what the famine did to us and how we still feel its effects today.



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,547 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    A lack of confidence has not been any of the last 3 Govts problems in the UK.

    Competence on the other hand...



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,461 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    It's used to be a longstanding trope here that every so often someone would pop up, drop a post about how the UK prospering as a result of Brexit would force Ireland to recalibrate its priorities and disappear. This looks like the same again albeit with less effort. Brexit happened literally years ago. It's a bit cringeworthy to see this argument appear once again.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,943 ✭✭✭6541


    I take all your points. However, I do think at some stage the British will make Brexit work. It could take 10 years. But this will happen. Surely now is the time to start planning for this.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,461 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    What are you basing this on? What will this look like? What signs are there? What measures are you advocating exactly?

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,943 ✭✭✭6541


    I am not offering solutions. All I am saying is I thing it would be a good idea for us to scenario plan.

    We would be foolish not to at least plan for a confident Britain with a successful Brexit. In fact we would be stupid.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,068 ✭✭✭xper


    But the Brits are going to take out our Bridge with their aircraft carriers!!!!!

    or something

    chatGTP would do better.

    He completely ignores our relationship with the rest of the EU … our ‘crappy climate’ and ‘terrible food’ are major positives … ah, why bother … somebody’s wrong on the internet again



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,943 ✭✭✭6541


    Wow this is an amazing discussion. Ppl get annoyed just because I suggest that it would be prudent to scenario plan for a successful Brexit that is potentially detrimental to us.

    Is there some unwritten rule on this thread that doesn't allow discussion for a future successful Brexit and potential implication that could have for us ?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    So, the UK has a powerful navy because they have two large aircraft carriers, but not the support ships required to protect and support them. Hmmm.... - makes you think.

    Of course, they are floating about the world with USA Marine fighters and pilots on board and USA support ships. Hmmm,,, makes you wonder what he is on about. Of course, Colorado is quite a long way from the sea. Perhaps he has never seen a navy ship up close.

    Let us assume the UK will remain friends with the USA, and do not try to do something against the USA wishes.

    Some world class navy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,445 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    What makes you think the government hasn't? Because if you don't think they have, feel free to suggest what you think they should do.

    And if you admit they probably are gaming all sorts of Brexit-impacted things for Ireland, then, well, that link's just FUD.

    Seems to me Ireland's doing a lot better than the UK since Brexit 6 years ago.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,547 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    What does this even mean though? What is a successful Brexit and what needs to be planned for?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,600 ✭✭✭rock22


    But you haven't made any contribution to the discussion. You are asking people here to go to YouTube and look at a video without any idea what it is about. Why would we?

    If you have a point to make then make it. And you can refer to the video as evidence. But don't expect people to engage in nothing more than a link to youtube.

    Even your point about planning for a successful Brexit. It is impossible to see Brexit as ever being a success. The UK has cut itself off from it's major trading partners. The only success on the horizon, that is being talked about, is the possibility that Cameron will improve relations with the EU. Which is the opposite of Brexit. But, even if there is a minute possibility of a Brexit success, why would that threaten Ireland. As we export to the UK, it is in our interest to have a successful economy there. Their Brexit success , if it could ever happen, would be good for Ireland , and all EU countries exporting to the UK.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,945 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    What does this even mean? We've been constantly enacting policies and taking action since 2016 to minimise brexit impact. What specifically have we not done that you think we should be doing?



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,524 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    In what way would it be deemed to have worked? How exactly can placing barriers to trade help improve trade with your nearest neighbours?

    Plus, whilst Brexit has already happened a few years ago and is done & dusted, what positives can the UK now claim they have made as a result of it?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,461 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    You're posting in a very lazy and unconstructive manner. You've offered no detail on the scenario you propose. My instinct is that this is some kind of - forgive the term - West Brit narrative where we've to keep our betters in Westminster happy. You've not openly said that but you've not said anything else either. Your first post was to dump a video here which is poor form, to be honest.

    Brexit happened on the 31st January 2020 and, as was obvious in 2016, nobody is happy. The UK is essentially a rule taker. Please do feel free to flesh out this hypothetical super economy that was apparently held back by Brussels.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,298 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    @6541 You've failed to answer the most basic question which is what's a successful Brexit. The reason you have not, nor can anyone else, answer this is very simple because there is not one. Trade has always been based around distance; it costs more to ship things to Australia than Netherlands; this is simple economics. Hence cutting off all the countries close to you from trade (50% of volume) is simply put stupid; and this is recognised by the few Brexit economics as well. They stated up front that UK would have to give up on manufacturing simply because it would not work. Ok; so if manufacturing is out that leaves services. Now here's the thing with services which is they are much more movable and global and heavily dependent on local regulation but as well the deal you've struck with other countries. Because you can have the most regulation free country in the world but if you're not allowed to sell your services outside your country that does not really work (see American funds not allowed to be sold in EU for a recent example). Here's where the snag comes into it for Brexit; the deal with EU states in a very simplified form "If your regulation is as good as EU's laws you get to sell to us; if not we cut the deal". The problem then is UK can't go jolly rogers on the high seas and cut regulation because then they lose the whole EU market and both Singapore and NY will happy step in to cover the gap London being removed would create because its a global trade (yes there would be disruption from it but that's being reduced on a daily basis as trades, future contracts etc. expire and are being done out of other countries instead).

    With that in mind do please share what's Ireland (and by extension EU) suppose to prepare for? EU has free trade into UK without regulation while UK has regulated trade into EU (because UK's government can't actually get around to implement the controls). EU has a fail safe cut off in the services UK can offer that if they fail to meet the EU requirements they get cut off. Yes; UK could in theory re-invent itself to a new economy but what leadership do you see in Tories or Labour to lead said change? What's the interest on the ground in the UK to suffer through the decade+ catastrophic economical shock (unemployment going 30%+, salaries shrinking, people who can't / don't learn services in London basically can't get a job beyond Tesco cashier etc.) that would involve and what makes you think the other party (because who ever started it will be kicked out) would continue delivering on the transformation? UK is much more likely to go down the failed economy route (see Brazil, Argentina etc.) and wallow in it's past glories (as it sees it) feeling unfairly treated by the rest of the world who moves on without it.

    That's the part you appear to have missed...



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,461 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,105 ✭✭✭yagan


    For some brexit is working exactly as intended.



  • Registered Users Posts: 862 ✭✭✭timetogo1


    Brexit has worked about as well as most sensible people predicted. Well maybe a bit worse as many industries were more entwined with EU supply lines and customers than most people thought.

    For it to be a success for the majority of the British people you'd have to describe what that meant. It's been 7 years since the referendum so if they haven't managed to define a "successful" Brexit so far I doubt it gets much better than this.

    Farage was asked recently what Brexit had done for the average citizen. His answer was along the lines of sovereignty.


    E.g. Remember the great deals the UK were going to do by themselves

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/25/uks-flagship-post-brexit-trade-deal-worth-even-less-than-previously-thought-obr-says



  • Registered Users Posts: 615 ✭✭✭Mr Disco


    You either extremely unknowledgeable or WUM-ing. Possibly both



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,420 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Despite repeated invitations, you haven't explained what you mean by a "successful brexit", or how it would be detrimental to us.

    There is no unwritten rule against discussion of these points; you're just refusing to discuss them. You pretend to want a discussion but refuse to have one; that's why people get annoyed.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,461 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Fascinating.

    Basically, people who were too young in 2016 are fundamentally anti-Brexit, Labour are eating into the Tories majority and swing voters are anti-Brexit, and swing voters who voted Leave in 2016 have fipped.

    I was of the opinion that we needed adults in the room and proven sensible governance before putting another referendum (assuming the EU agreed) to the people. Maybe there's room for it now?

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,479 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Ironically, I think Brexit has been good news for the EU and Ireland, even though I didn't think would be in June 2016. It has brought the other 27 closer together and guaranteed the future of the union. So yes, it can be argued that Brexit has been a big success.



  • Registered Users Posts: 876 ✭✭✭reslfj




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,600 ✭✭✭rock22


    That point has been made over and over again in my criticism of Starmer. It has been clear for some time that there is a sizable anti Brexit sentiment but Starmer has chosen to go down the route of "making Brexit work".

    Interestingly, Laura Kuenssberg on BBC , yesterday, in discussing the UK economy and its' problems, shut down any mention of Brexit. So in some quarters it is still not for discussion.

    As far as I know, there is no need for another referendum, although it might be politically safer to have one. But I think the EU will only want a UK application to join under certain conditions and certainly not coming with a load of UK exceptions. Realistically , it is hard to see an application succeeding withing the next ten years.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,461 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I always took to the idea that the UK had to prove itself sensible and reliable before having another referendum. Curtice estimates that 57-58% of people want to reverse Brexit so a referendum could be sooner than we think. A Labour government could pull a Ted Heath and just have us re-enter albeit on less advantageous terms than we had in 2016 and with the EU's say-so which is by no means guaranteed.

    I think we need the Tories to get re-acquainted with reality first since they'll howl betrayal and promise another Brexit unless they purge themselves. Interestingly, the Telegraph reports on talks between the right of the party and Reform UK. I understand Lee Anderson's fee is famously reasonable.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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