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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2023 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Frequent showers streaming in from the Kerry coast here near Tralee today in a LP dominant Atlantic regime over the next 5 days, the place is truly sodden and a showery outlook to be expected for the coming week especially in the western half of the country, more towards coastal areas, with the odd frontal rain thrown in 😀especially Tues night into Weds when it might get a bit breezy to blustery on high ground for a time and windy on the coasts. Cool week in store with increased convection maybe giving some hail showers especially near the Atlantic Seaboard and the chance of a few thunderstorms. Maybe getting cold enough to get a report of a sleety shower as the week goes on especially on higher ground more North or the signs of a small bit of white on mountain tops. Doesn't look like getting cold enough for too much frost if any, maybe a bit in very sheltered inland areas, as the wind and breeze will be around most days and nights, getting breezy inland at times and windy on coasts especially during convective showers. Wont be going far without a good jacket here in Kerry this week !
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Windy to blustery frontal passage in store overnight. Rainfall totals highest along the Atlantic seaboard especially over higher terrain and an organized trough to follow Weds morning followed by numerous showers. The triple point may move over the NW giving the highest totals there. Spot flooding or water damage to roads, land etc may become an issue along Atlantic counties nearer to coasts over the coming days especially if caught under a Thunderstorm, might hear of a few landslides. A lot of water flowing off mountains.
A more complex LP system for Thurs with various troughs and occluded fronts and a very showery regime under increasingly cold airmass increasing the convection level to produce hail and thunderstorms along mainly Atlantic coastal counties. Sleet in the mix also especially over higher ground. Should be some spectacular cloudscapes.
Models moving around a bit with the wind strength for Thurs. but could be windy in Munster and more so the SW , maybe touching yellow warning level.
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The Isobars tightening along the SW tonight giving quite windy/blustery conditions into early morning, possibly up to around 90 to 100km/h on coasts and 80 to 90km or so overland especially higher ground, plenty of more showers of rain and hail to come and some more organised rain bands from a trough and and the remains of an occluded front to follow. Could still get the odd spark overnight along some part of the Atlantic coast.
Winds easing early morning. Could get a touch of frost overnight up in Northern counties in sheltered areas away from the wind. A much colder Fri night into Sat morning in the calmer airs and could see foggy conditions on Sat morning maybe slow to clear in the midlands which might necessitate a yellow warning.
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So a few models showing some sort of a deepening area of LP in the general vicinity of running up along the W or overland a bit giving between windy along the coasts to very windy overland. Then you have a couple of models now not showing anything of note but a couple more showing the potential for something to develop.
ECM , ARPEGE showing very strong winds skimming along the W, NW early Monday and breezy / blustery to follow on Tuesday.
ACCESS=G showing similar track of a disturbance up along the West but more inland giving very windy weather, Tuesday just windy along the coasts.
ICON showing a disturbance early Monday but doesn't develop it into much.
UKMO blustery on coasts at times .
GEM potential for some windy of very windy conditions in parts of Ireland, blustery on Tuesday
GFS not showing anything of note now.
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ECM, UKMO, GEM and ACCESS-G all bringing a developing wave disturbance up along the SE, E from early Monday, going by the developing trend it could yet be classified as a storm. Showing very windy along coasts and models differ some bit to how windy it is overland along the SE and E but there is potential for strong to very strong winds . One outlier is the GFS and not showing anything like the aforementioned models, windy but nothing of note at this stage, it sends most of the energy over the UK.
Coming to the Higher Res models, ARPEGE showing a full blown storm early Monday morning moving very quickly into the SW and up along the Western side of the country and spreading the winds then across the Northern half of the country during day light hours. This might come more in line with the ECM group later.
HARMONIE seems to be starting out like the ECM group and WRF shows most of the energy to the East of Ireland over the UK.
So still showing some potential of something windy to strong and now looking more like the SE, E but a bit of finalizing of the track and strength yet from what look likes a fast moving and deepening depression developing very quickly in the early hours of Mon morning to the SE and moving up eithe over Ireland or along the Irish sea . UKMO HD Hi Res model latest run just rolling out and showing a storm develop giving very strong winds along the SE and E of Ireland sending very strong stormy winds into the UK so they may name it first.
Still a high degree of uncertainty for exact details at this stage.
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Rainfall accumulations will depend on track of the system, the French models showing very heavy rain through early Monday morning especially Connaught and Ulster and parts of the SW especially higher ground, ECM showing large swathes of the country getting 20mm plus and up to 30mm in places in 24 hrs ( on top of Sat. night /Sun rain ), UKMO showing very heavy rain in the E and GFS more up towards Northern counties so a bit to go yet to see how the system develops.
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After the mostly dry week seeing some rain spread over the country later Saturday night into Sunday, amounts not huge. A bit breezy on coasts for a time. Then the cooling down starts and starting to see frrezing overnight temperatures in parts from later Monday night.
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So this is tonight's gfs control uppers for Thursday/Friday. Coupled with an onshore wind along the East and South Coast its enough to give snow showers to Dublin and indeed southeast from Cork to Wexford. Are we sleep walking into an event that could surprise more than a few along the coast. Uppers are going to be much lower than wad initially forecast
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Yes not miles off December 8th last year, which while marginal and on the edge - still delivered a covering to a good covering in Dublin off some Irish sea action. We are only 60m asl in D9 and while there was rain in the mix before and after, still got a covering when it transitioned to snow in between.
However - I'm assuming the warmer SSTs this year means you need to go that bit further inland this time around + higher ground?
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I think Saturday is worth keeping eyes on Ecmwf model this evening again showing a front moving across on Saturday with some snow accumulations possible Saturday night into Sunday.
The icon tonight also showing this feature.
If this was to start showing on other models tomorrow and continues to show on both the above could be the first real snow of the season.
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Will see what falls over the next 24hrs, good cold mid level temperatures getting down to around -6C. Hit and miss wintry showers, snow possible in places but amounts small unless under a train of snow producing clouds.
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Staying very cold up to +120hrs, showere beginning to switch to the NW bringing wintry precipitaion into Atlantic coastal counties, a few organised bands could drop a few sleet/ snow showers especially on high ground. Foggy conditions at times and the models showing the possibility of freezing rain in places leading to some treacherous roasd conditions at times. Still not resolved how much the fronts associated with the LPs to the South will come inlnad and how the leading edge will interact with the cold air but could lead to very difficult road conditions as the skies clear again giving very icy conditons. Windy along the South coasts on Monday also and even though will probably stay above freezing there it could feel very cold.
Charts came out in wrong order, working off a tablet, computer gave up and waiting for a new one. ECM showing very cold in Munster On Monday over the snowfields 😀
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Entering a more unsettled spell of weather from later Tuesday, strong frontal winds and heavy rain on Weds, quite windy in the SW and along coastal areas, blustery overland. Models beggining to show a storm on Thursday, a few of them brining very strong winds into Ireland but not all in agreement yet on track or strength so a bit to go yet but leaning towards very strong winds and heavy rain with high totals showing up especially in the SW, S, SE higher ground in the E, parts of the W.
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