FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Gonzo · 27-11-2023 10:13pm

Latest UKV also ramps up the cold for us from Wednesday night with widespread -6 to -7 uppers across the country, almost cold enough for snow to low levels. Just a pity there will be very little precipitation around for this cold spell.

We won't be sitting out in the garden sipping cocktails in our shorts and tshirts come Friday/Saturday.

Niall145 · 27-11-2023 11:26pm

Heading to beautiful Tallinn, Estonia this weekend which is already totally blanketed in deep thick snow and where there is currently an all-night blizzard, literally can't wait!

Anyway back to home, hopefully parts of Dublin/Wicklow will get a dusting during Thursday/Friday.

WolfeEire · 28-11-2023 12:13am

Battleground scenario come next week on tonight's GFS.

pauldry · 28-11-2023 12:30am

Cold Weather dominating the models now but precipitation still either lacking or of a Wintry nature rather than snow most likely. Met Eireann say Wintry showers so probably the usual mix of precipitation. However I'm sure some areas will get lucky towards the end of the week and of course the mountains. Roads could be very icy with long nights so be very careful if you do venture.

Gonzo · 28-11-2023 12:45am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121426703#Comment_121426703

If this entire spell happened in about 2 weeks time it would have made a big difference, this spell is just a bit too early. Getting snow to low levels end of November is like trying to get lying snow end of March, it's going to be marginal the majority of the time. This is a bit like the reverse of March in that as each week progresses we are in a much better position if we hit the jackpot.

However none of this makes a difference when the last 3 to 4 cold spells we've had over the past few winters have had little to no precipitation for most areas.

Gonzo · 28-11-2023 12:52am

Overall today fairly big upgrades in terms of cold between Thursday and Monday. However I've a feeling tonights pub run is a massive outlier which hints towards cold lasting almost uninterrupted till mid December, majority of the output brings the mild back by next Tuesday.

cot-mad · 28-11-2023 7:37am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121426457#Comment_121426457

I’m heading to Lapland next week too which is also blanketed in thick snow. I’ve never experienced a fault proper snow before so I’m very excited.

esposito · 28-11-2023 12:27pm

The 6z GFS op has the Atlantic back with a vengeance next Thursday 7th onwards. Seeing purples over Greenland is never good. I’ve a feeling it is overdoing it though as the GFS often does.

Gonzo · 28-11-2023 12:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121427787#Comment_121427787

most models showing this from mid week next week. Mark Vogan predicted the mild/Atlantic would return fairly quickly by 2nd week of December due to the MJO. I don't fully understand how it works but know that it can greatly affect our weather with high pressures during the summer and deluge patterns etc.

Latest ECM long range also showing mild and Atlantic back in business from later next week with the remainder of December looking very Atlantic dominated and very mild. I feel we all knew this would happen as the run up to Christmas is almost guaranteed to be very mild here year on year.

Let's hope this isn't a repeat of Winter 2022/2023 where the opening week of December was winter and the rest of the winter was a write off. I am feeling a bit more hopeful about this winter that this dry cold spell isn't the last cold spell we'll see this winter, and that the next cold spell will be a properly cold and unstable one!. We could end up with a very mixed winter with mild and cold spells alternating.

nacho libre · 28-11-2023 1:05pm

Yes, the ec46 is showing mild right out to January. It now runs daily and can change quite often. For instance when the GFS was first showing this cold spell,I don't think it was in agreement. So I don't place as much value in it anymore. We just have to hope The mjo in phase 7 and the Canadian Warming will increase our chances of a return to cold in the next two or three weeks.

WolfeEire · 28-11-2023 1:11pm

General agreement that next Wednesday will introduce milder air. In fact, temperatures will recover slightly each day from Monday. There is a 20c 850 scatter by then on the GFS ensembles so the extent of any 'warm up' is unclear.

graphe0__0_0_-6.50943396226_53.1578947368_.png

Gonzo · 28-11-2023 4:04pm

just having a look at the stratosphere and currently the PV is very much together and flies in the face with what is going on at the moment with lots of northern blocking. The centre of the PV is now very cold with temperatures down to -84C which is typically about as cold as it gets. Usually when we see this, you would expect the Atlantic to be on steroids around this time but this year that is not the case.

Several warmings are due over the coming weeks, certainly no SSW but substantial minor warmings that are enough to start displacing the PV.

By December 5th the PV is being displaced southwards out of the pole and over Europe.

We finish up on the 14th with a second warming , again nothing major but it is putting the PV under slight pressure. Something to keep an eye on throughout December.

It would be great to see an SSW take place around Christmas or just after it rather than sometime in February which is too late for winter. For an SSW we would need to see the dark red colours appearing e.g +8C and above and for a split to happen rather than a displacement. For now this is nothing more than pure fantasy and wishful thinking.

average_runner · 28-11-2023 4:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121426965#Comment_121426965

Lapland is amazing, enjoy it!!

Gonzo · 28-11-2023 5:55pm

GFS 12z will need to be brought outside the pub on a stretcher. GFS 12z model wobble on the return of the Atlantic.

BLIZZARD7 · 28-11-2023 6:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121429464#Comment_121429464

Those snow depth charts aren’t showing the heavy convective snow showers that would pile on to the east coast - that 12z GFS run is the stuff dreams are made of. Classic WAA pumping up a huge Scandi high that delivers a beast and sliders galore - all JFF at the moment but certainly one to keep an eye on as the route to mild may well be short lived - it’s not the first model or run to pick up on the Scandi high theme.

Perhaps this week/weekend is just the teaser before something more significant builds.

squarecircles · 28-11-2023 6:20pm

another tease...

Gonzo · 28-11-2023 6:35pm

That GFS 12z has to be very much an outlier with barely any support but interesting that it is a possible scenario that could develop over the coming 10 days. It's the sort of thing I want to see in the next cold spell.

sryanbruen · 28-11-2023 6:47pm

The GFS 12z is what I would have expected based on that ECM 12z from Sunday and to some extent Monday's too.

However, as you'd expect it is a raging outlier - well minus one other perturbation.

Very much a signal of the Atlantic to breakthrough on the GEFS.

WolfeEire · 28-11-2023 7:20pm

Met Eireann long term screams 'zonal' 😓

Screenshot_2023-11-28-18-18-47-750-edit_com.android.chrome.jpg

mcburns07 · 28-11-2023 7:24pm

That sounds horrendous

Gonzo · 28-11-2023 7:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121429780#Comment_121429780

Follows exactly what the ECM extended is showing. CFS showing Atlantic dominance as well from next Tuesday for rest of December. Since we are currently still in November this is completely unreliable but it is what we end up with most of the time.

sryanbruen · 28-11-2023 7:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121429799#Comment_121429799

It follows exactly what the extended EC (EC46) is showing because that's all those long range forecasts are. They just put the EC46 charts into words. Doesn't add anything to what we don't already know.

esposito · 28-11-2023 7:55pm

Really hope they are wrong. My Christmas Day prediction of 14/15c might come true after all. Nobody (well none of us coldies) wants a repeat of last winter where we had a cold early to mid December and then that was it after that.

sryanbruen · 28-11-2023 7:55pm

The Atlantic is unleashed on the ECM by mid-week next week. It does try to develop into a Scandi high with the WAA going north but there's just too much energy in the North Atlantic for that to happen. The lows get stuck over us rather than heading east as a result.

WolfeEire · 28-11-2023 9:12pm

Ecm

op run also an outlier in last few days of run

Dazler97 · 28-11-2023 11:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121429780#Comment_121429780

Is this new that met eirrean are doing this, never knew this was available

pauldry · 29-11-2023 12:36am

Looking at temperatures in Greenland now above zero in November in some places I fear we may never get a prolonged cold spell again.

The whole bloody world is too warm. We may get a few snowy days here and there but I'd say there's more chance of record high temperatures in December than anything remotely cold bar the first few days.

Maybe the cold can hang on but the mild dominates worldwide now especially on our side. Asia maybe not so much but even Siberia has seen record warmth in November.

I'd say Christmas Day will be 12 to 14c. It's inevitable really isn't it. What we don't want we get.

In short the forecast looks cold till next Wednesday....then mild till Jan 2024. Most prob don't want any more storms either.

WolfeEire · 29-11-2023 1:34am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121431055#Comment_121431055

Been doing it for the past year, at least that's when I first came across it. Updates Tuesday and Friday evenings.

WolfeEire · 29-11-2023 3:18am

Models signalling lots of energy out in the Atlantic and as @sryanbruen pointed out earlier, the charts at 240hrs position NW Europe in a buffer zone between mild and cold air masses. Based on the NAO Index being a relatively neutral state come then, I think what is signalled presently for ten days time may be on the extreme end of what is likely to materialise.

Dazler97 · 29-11-2023 4:10am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121431363#Comment_121431363

Lovely thank you 😊

icesnowfrost · 29-11-2023 8:34am

If that is to be believed it’s some difference in temperature from the end of next week. Don’t think the models have it nailed down just yet. From cold to very mild 🥶🥵

Meteorite58 · 29-11-2023 8:58am

Models coming more in line to showing a switch to quite wet and windy weather from around the middle of next week. ECM less cold but still not mild, GFS that bit milder. Perhaps gales at times or stronger.

Billcarson · 29-11-2023 9:50am

With the return of our normal weather next week, one positive is it gives us time for things to hopefully turn back in our favour for Christmas. I would love a cold last week of December. I'd like it to stay cold all the way through for the next few weeks but that would be unrealistic.

Hooter23 · 29-11-2023 10:17am

We are in the best position when the cold from the east and atlantic weather collide...it does not happen that often but when it does ireland & the uk can get the worst of the weather from it...the jetstream still shows that there is still just as much chance of the atlantic weather sliding to the south of us at times...we will see sure

esposito · 29-11-2023 10:50am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121431707#Comment_121431707

Thinking the same. What I’d give for a cold final week of December and into the new year! We are long overdue it.

Hoping the proper cold in Scandi and Eastern Europe does not get wiped away from the mild coming in next week. We need that in place for further down the line…

nacho libre · 29-11-2023 11:21am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121429780#Comment_121429780

They base that on the ECM 46, which is showing it zonal till January, so no surprise there. You can't dismiss it outright as it would tie in with what should happen in an El Nino winter, but the EC46 as I mentioned can flip from one outlook to another. The worrying sign for me is the Azore high in its usual spot.

pauldry · 29-11-2023 12:07pm

GFS showing a lot of storms now. Might be more names used in December. Dominant Atlantic means any snow in December would be melted fast. Very mobile looking charts on latest.

Seems unresolved but if they have any doubt I'm sure theyl just place the Azores high with Southwesterlies by us. This is what we get 60 percent of the time.

Billcarson · 29-11-2023 12:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121431916#Comment_121431916

The cold in Scandi could be key going forward. Lot of cold that built up there over the last few weeks, we need that to remain.

Gonzo · 29-11-2023 12:57pm

If we lose that cold pool in Scandi we lose everything as we would have nothing to tap into. Very important that stays there throughout the winter. As for us it now looks most likely the Atlantic will be dominating again from next Tuesday/Wednesday in what probably will end up in another mild run up to Christmas. However there are still some outliers going for cold and snow around mid December but they have very little support. Fingers crossed we can get an SSW going properly end of December or early January to give us hope for the period end of December to Valentines Day, the all important prime time to tap into proper cold and snow.

sryanbruen · 29-11-2023 1:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121432261#Comment_121432261

I'd be very surprised if it'll be "very mobile" or full on zonal. Looks more like an active Atlantic coming up against blocking similar to mid-October. These kinds of setups can dump tons of rain especially to the south of the country. Think back to Storm Babet. Sorry Corkians, I know that's not what you wanted to hear 😒

It's reminding me a lot of December 1978 which had a very active Atlantic come up against blocking. The blocking was never in a favourable position for us until the end of the month when the easterly winds came roaring in for the New Year. It was an exceptionally wet month here in the east with regular spells of rain. Remains the only time Dublin Airport has had a month with 200mm+.

nacho libre · 29-11-2023 1:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121432474#Comment_121432474

Well the one consolation is this cold spell was a bit of outlier when it was initially shown, not within the GFS, but across the models there wasn't much support for it. We have got to hope the Canadian Warming begins to have an impact after the 8th of December on output. So hopefully those outliers gain more support after that. If not, like you say, let's hope for a memorable cold spell sometime during peak winter.

WolfeEire · 29-11-2023 1:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121432646#Comment_121432646

Agree with this. GFS does not show any significant 'warm-up'. In fact, it stays cool throughout the 14-day window. Most of the 30 perturbations show this. ECM and GEM the same. Will be keeping an eye out for what happens 10-14 days down the line in output over the next few days

pureza · 29-11-2023 3:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121432646#Comment_121432646

There was a lot of snow later that winter though,early 1979

sryanbruen · 29-11-2023 3:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121433139#Comment_121433139

Precisely, from the roaring easterlies that I mention during the New Year. However, there was a lot of rain to get through before that and with warmer sea temperatures compared to then if we do see the similar pattern..

November surprised me mind with the first half being one of the most cyclonic on record in terms of anomaly but the main rain bands stayed to our south into Brittany and Normandy.

WolfeEire · 29-11-2023 6:05pm

It is certainly going to turn less cold from Tuesday into Thursday next week but I would be highly doubtful we will see the 12-14c temps suggested on earlier guidance. Looking at the GFS perturbations from the 12z up to Tuesday and many are going with a much weaker push from the Atlantic. That massive cold block over Europe, particularly Nordic countries, is putting up resistance and in some cases holds back the milder air beyond midweek from east/north Ireland and Britain. GFS has a tendency to track low pressure systems further north than their eventual position and also discounts the strength of Scandi highs. Would expect the ensembles to show a trend toward a delayed return to less cold conditions. What I think may happen is that milder will encroach on the western and southern regions of the country by Tuesday into Wednesday and end up in a buffer zone between a low pressure to our west, highs to our northwest, north and northeast. A good share of the perturbations suggest the below or variation of.

The less rapid "warm-up" is reflected in the ensembles for the next 192 hours, which features a lot more cold members than the previous run. The 12z is top and 06z is bottom.

Gonzo · 29-11-2023 6:46pm

GFS 12z second day in a row with a complete outlier only this time the other end of the scale. The return to mild is starting to look a bit on the temporary side with more colder members appearing for the mid December period and snow spikes coming back, will see over next few days if this gains further momentum.

Overall a huge range of scatter from December 7th with just about every scenario on the table.

WolfeEire · 29-11-2023 8:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121433880#Comment_121433880

A few more colder members added to the 12z Ecm compared to the 0z. Turning less cold for sure but nothing too mild for now.

WolfeEire · 29-11-2023 11:13pm

Gfs for Tuesday. Heights building all the time. The problem is the Azores high! That said, the battle of the air masses is on for nw Europe.

WolfeEire · 30-11-2023 1:55am

The CFS is definitely the best computer model......😛

Pure 👁️ 🍭 and also pure fantasy

Screenshot_2023-11-30-00-57-34-737-edit_com.android.chrome.jpg

icesnowfrost · 30-11-2023 9:04am

GFS-Looks like a few wind events trying to come in next week and week after with the later pulling in some cold east northeast winds but it extremely unreliable at this stage.

cold rain overnight and only a few miles from me there’s snow cover in collon. It’s a cruel world 🥶❄️😂

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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