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2023 NFL regular season thread (no picks)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,605 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,605 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    Hurts has had a few of his customary failures to spot wide open guys this game



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,605 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    Then he makes a great throw to get into the 1 yd line



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Unbelievable, the Eagles have turned up in this second half. 21-17 Eagles, pressure on the Chiefs to respond now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,605 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    Sensational special teams tackle on that punt



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,605 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    Two atrocious drops by Chiefs receivers to kill the game. You love to see it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Eagles win. Valdes-Scantling did his usual and dropped a perfect pass for a touchdown. Game wouldn't have been over if he got it but he didn't get it so it's a big, likely win lost over the guy with the misty dropped passes this season to date.



  • Posts: 13,688 ✭✭✭✭ Jeremy Thoughtless Photocopier


    Outside chance that Mark Andrews could be back this season as injury not as bad as they feared but would presumably mean us going on a deep enough play-off run.

    Edwards, Hill and Mitchell have been brilliant.

    Mitchell looking like steal of the draft (can you be steal of the draft if you go undrafted??).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,518 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    Week 12 TV Fixtures Part One.

    Thanksgiving slate is the usual 'bit meh'. For once the Lions aren't the weak link in the first game and the Packers are still competitive as the current #8 seed. Cowboys game could get ugly and Ron Rivera might get a holiday firing. Late game is excellent. Sadly Friday's game hasn't quite worked out the way NFL/Amazon would have expected. Note : Sky Sports are hosting this game from Shooters Bar Manchester, an experiment which was comically terrible last year.

    edit : Jeff Rheinbold is back on the Sky Sports team this week 😀

    Thursday

    Packers at Lions 5.30pm Sky Sports, Sky Max, Sky Sports Mix.

    Commanders at Cowboys 9.30pm Sky Sports.

    Late Thursday/Friday am

    49ers at Seahawks 01.20am Sky Sports.

    Friday

    Dolphins at Jets 8pm Sky Sports.

    Post edited by ArmaniJeanss on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    I'm having a miserable day fasting since yesterday for a colonoscopy tomorrow.

    Can't wait for the football, I think I'll forget about the fasting once it begins.

    I think the Lions will give the Packers a good going over. They are just too strong on the ground against a weak run defense. This will lead to the Packers moving close to the line and then you've got to deal with Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams seems to be hitting top gear as well.

    You'd think the Cowboys should easily handle the Commanders but this rivalry produces the most messed up results.

    Last year with the Cowboys still fighting for the NFC East title the Commanders rolled into Dallas and whooped them 26-6. It's 3-3 over the last three years. I've seen 6-3, 7-6 9-7, 38-31, 33-31 in my years watching these two go at it. . It can go anyway anytime.

    Late game you have to fancy the 49ers but they haven't a great record in this rivalry despite winning both games last year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,140 ✭✭✭cosatron


    Jordan love. F*ck yeah. Go pack go.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,061 ✭✭✭Ohmeha


    Dolly Parton mid-season Superbowl half-time entertainment show right now



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,518 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    I don't really get the criticism of the Jets' Hail Mary play before the half. Seems to be based on a load of Harry Hindsight, and have never heard the critics blast any other Hail Mary play just before the break. If the distance is within range for the QB, then it seems fine to me.

    Clearly there's a certain low (very low) points expectation with the Hail Mary, but the risk of a return TD is a miniscule negligible fraction of the chance of scoring. I'd have more problem with the Fins defender being able to catch unchallenged and not be tackled on the run back.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    People were criticising the decision to for a Hail Mary?

    I'd imagine these are the same people think that analytics is always right when the math behind it is flawed.

    I seen it the other night with a team up by 14 with a 4th and 2 inside the 20 and the commentator saying that analytics says go for it here and the colour commentator says it's the correct decision and you'll have no regrets if you don't get it.

    I didn't do the math on it, it's just naturally in my head without have to do numbers but you've got a three score lead if you take the field goal. At best your likely average score if you get the first down is about 5.5.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,518 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    Week 12 TV Fixtures Part Two.

    Houston were 31st of 32 in the betting at the start, but can go top of AFC South with a win. I'm fairly sure this is the first time they've been picked by Sky in a 6pm/9pm slot since the 2019 season. Huge pressure on Buffalo who are starting a run of at Eagles, at Chiefs, Cowboys, at Chargers and they probably need to get out of it 2-2 to maintain a chance.

    Sunday

    Jaguars at Texans 6pm Sky Sports.

    Bills at Eagles 9.20pm Sky Sports.

    Late Sunday/Monday am

    Ravens at Chargers 01.20am Sky Sports.

    Late Monday/Tuesday am

    Bears at Vikings 01.20am Sky Sports and Channel 5 UK.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    On offense the signing of Schultz along with the two rookies Stroud and Dell have been huge.

    Singletary has turned into a great pickup as well, he's done a great job with Pierce out. I actually was very big on Singletary coming out of college but he didn't deliver consistently or often with Buffalo. He's still only 26, loads of miles left on the clock.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,384 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    10-1 for the eagles but Jesus we can’t keep coming from behind.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,156 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    One of those cases where should the rest of the league be scared of what the Eagles will be like if they start playing better or should the Eagles be afraid of what will happen when they stop getting so much good luck?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,518 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    Frank Reich sacked in Carolina



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,384 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Not a shock given there was a report that the owner was seen leaving the locker room and yelling “****.”



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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,156 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    Once those leaks to the media came out that looked like Reich was covering himself about preferring Stroud he was done if he didn't win some games.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    I didn't particularly fancy Young coming out of college but he's better than what we are seeing of him now. Mac Jones is in a similar situation. Neither of them have an offensive line. In that situation where you are consistently running for your life you are going to make bad decisions to try and keep a drive going.

    Jones is done in New England but somebody will pick him up and if they have a good line they might be pleasantly surprised if their starter gets injured.

    You won't like this Foxtrol but I think the 49ers would be a great landing spot for him to back up Purdy.

    Just while I'm on Purdy, I can't believe nobody is talking about him as a potential MVP. He's been fantastic all season, I can't think of any other QB whose been as consistent at a high level.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,927 ✭✭✭✭Realt Dearg Sec


    Truly staggering levels of offensive ineptitude from the bears coaching staff. The commentators were literally laughing about how often we were calling pointless screens, and eventually it cost us big. But to be honest when it was 9-3 I knew we would go behind. If we happen to rob it in the last two minutes it will be a pure fluke after throwing away a great defensive performance earlier that should have been a comprehensive win of we had even a bit of competence. Getsy riding Aaron Rodgers arm into a career he absolutely didn't deserve. Has to be fired tomorrow.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,927 ✭✭✭✭Realt Dearg Sec


    Fields to Moore probably saved a man his job just now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Moore might be the most underrated receiver in the NFL. When you look at the list of QBs he's had to suffer through and what he's done, it's quite incredible.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,927 ✭✭✭✭Realt Dearg Sec


    He certainly made the trade last year a worthwhile one, I know a lot of Panthers fans were pretty disgusted to find out that the cost of getting the new QB was he wouldn't have him to throw to



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Major home town call made at the end of the first half. Smith Njigba caught a ball in the end zone, even Terry McAulay said it was a TD. It seemed very clear to me that he didn't lose control.

    Anyway next play, Noah Fant catches it in the end zone and then there's whistles and apparently Dallas got a timeout before the ball was snapped. The good news is despite all that Metcalf caught it for the TD to bring the half to an end and they go in at halftime with a 21-20 lead.

    Metcalf has 105 yards and two TDs in that first half. Ceedee Lamb 82 yards and a TD.

    What confuses me most with Dallas is having Pollard running it up the gut. Firstly the Seahawks are strong there, secondly Pollard is much better off tackle than through the middle.

    Anyway, Cowboys haven't beaten a team with a winning record this season and they are losing at halftime to a team with a winning record, a team that hasn't looked good over the last month with three losses and a win by three points over the Commanders.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,894 ✭✭✭hynesie08


    The Cowboys, we score 40 or we lose.......



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,156 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    Many QBs have bad OLs, Purdy for example is dealing with a worse OL in most metrics yet is playing at that high level you highlighted. The problems at the Patriots are much deeper with Bill being completely incompetent in hiring 'Patriot way' rethread hires and repeated failures in drafting and FA. I don't know how the Patriots or any other team could trust Bill with a rebuild and/or a highly drafted rookie QB.

    On Jones, I've always said he should be a solid QB in the league - I just thought it would have been insanity to move up to #3 to draft him given his lack of ceiling and how he'd have likely been there at their original pick. I wouldn't mind bringing him in on a cheap deal as a back-up to Purdy however from what I've seen from him when facing adversity I don't think he fits the locker room, especially not as a back-up. Even in the worst 9ers years under Shanahan I never saw players acting the way he has.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    The Patriots are only a couple of offensive players away from being serious contenders. We are completely fine on defense.

    Mac is done in New England after this season. I'll always hold the opinion that it's not his fault. He isn't getting two seconds in the pocket on most plays. The one time the offensive line held up this season he had a fine game with no picks.

    I'm comparing Bryce Young to him for the simple reason that you see both making some horrible throws and it's a bad habit that will destroy you if you are doing it long enough.

    It's a case of your team being in a hole and being desperate to keep a drive alive while running for your life.

    The current Niners no.2 had that problem pretty much since he came into the league. I'm still of the opinion that we don't know how good or bad he is just like Mac Jones and Bryce Young in his young career.

    It's not as simple as just deciding a player makes awful throws, you gotta understand the man. I know Mac Jones hates losing as do most players, he's willing to take those risks, when his team are well behind, rather than give the ball back to the opposition.

    It doesn't mean that he's a great or even good quarterback, it simply means we don't know what he is. A promising rookie season has been followed by two seasons of being hurried, rushed, pressured and sacked.

    Brock Purdy's offensive line looks like heaven to Mac Jones and Bryce Young. He's often given 3+ seconds in the pocket, Jones and Young never get that.

    Post edited by eagle eye on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,532 ✭✭✭✭castletownman


    Can we assume no-one else outside of the Ravens, Eagles, Cowboys, Chiefs and 49ers (in no particular order) are the only likely contenders for Lombardi? With Dolphins hoping to go deep too.

    Can't remember a season with such an array of teams where you'd be changing your Super Bowl pick each week.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    The Lions are dangerous I think. I wouldn't rule out the Bills just yet.

    Also the Jags are in the thick of the battle to win the first seed in the AFC conference.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,518 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    Week 13 TV Fixtures.

    Pretty pleasant surprise for me when I realised that 49ers/Eagles is in the 9.25 slot. For some reason I'd thought it was in the very late slot. A win for the 49ers would set up a great race for No1 Seed down the stretch, and also throw open the NFC East for Dallas. A win for the Eagles would almost seal both those contests for them.

    Sunday

    Broncos at Texans 6pm Sky Sports

    49ers at Eagles 9.25pm Sky Sports

    Late Sunday/Monday am

    Chiefs at Packers 01.20am Sky Sports

    Late Monday/Tuesday am

    Bengals at Jaguars 01.20am Sky Sports and Channel 5 UK



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,156 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    Your opinion of the different pressure levels isnt backed up with evidence. Purdy and Jones have basically the same time to being pressured, however Purdy is pressured significantly more often than Jones is. The difference is Purdy looks relaxed and is making plays even when under pressure while Jones is panicking and looks under pressure even when he has a clean pocket.

    https://x.com/arjunmenon100/status/1729206634734629241?s=20

    On the Patriots, fair play for your confidence in your team but to me they are absolutely miles away from being contenders - hence their 2 wins.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,927 ✭✭✭✭Realt Dearg Sec


    Two absolutely scandalous pass interference no calls on the chiefs final drive to make sure the Packers get over the line. Now there was an iffy call for the chiefs where they gave it out of bounds when he seemed to be going backwards before going out. But...I dunno...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    So Purdy played one of the best defense lines in football last night, how bad was his protection? You are seriously over critical on the niners pass protection. And Purday gets a hell of a lot more time than Mac Jones has gotten for pretty much all of the last two seasons. Purdy might be in Jones situation a couple of times per game but he get loads of time a lot.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    He was defintiely not out of bounds, it was a fair hit. He wasn't going backward either. He just turned when he seen the hit coming.

    The Chiefs big problem is the quality of the receivers. Rashee Rice is their no.1 and he'd be at best a no.3 on most teams.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,927 ✭✭✭✭Realt Dearg Sec


    I think you're possibly referring to a different play than me, you're possibly talking about when they hit mahomes and they said it was unnecessary roughness (which was yet another bad call)? I am talking about when I think it was Valdez scantling trying to get out of bounds to stop the clock and the defender stopped the forward progress before he got out but the refs allowed the play to run until he was over the sideline, stopping the clock.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,156 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol



    Purdy was under pressure a lot yesterday - he just doesn't turn into a pumpkin like Jones has recently when he faces it. Even on multiple TDs he was under pressure quickly and about to be hit by more than one Eagles defenders but makes a play so it is ignored.

    I provided you season long data and you're choosing to ignore it for how you feel things are. If you aren't even going to acknowledge the evidence provided just because it doesn't agree with your head narrative then there is no point in continuing.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    I counted a lot of times last night, some of which I'm sure you say was him under pressure. Each time, except twice, I got to 1/3000 before he had to move. I've done this during many Patriots games and I don't get to finish 1/2000 all the time and it's nearly always 2000.

    Purdy has good footwork in the pocket when he has to move, he makes more time for himself when he needs it but he has far more time than either of Jones or Young.

    Bailey Zappe played for the Patriots last night, he was much worse than Jones. A 52% completion rate and sacked five times against the 4th worst defense in the league. Jones has a 64.9% completion rate through 11 games and 22 sacks which is quite incredible with all the pressure he is constantly under. He only gets time for short throws, he's averaging 6.1 yards per reception. He has twelve interceptions, nine of which have come on third down.

    I suppose I'm coming across as being biased towards Jones here. I'm not, as I said in a previous post, I don't know what we've got, he could be terrible, average, good or even great. We won't know that until he gets at least an average OL to protect him.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    I remember that one too and I'm in full agreement with you on it.

    And you are right, I was talking about the Mahomes hit.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,156 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    I already provided you with independent analysis where they do what you're talking about for every snap of every QB. I'll share it again. They aren't doing for just a few snaps on a one off game.

    On average, Jones' pressure is only a tiny fraction faster than Purdy but it happens far more frequently for Purdy. The 49ers OL's pass blocking is bad and has been for a few years - Purdy just deals with it without the multiple times a game mental implosions that Jimmy G used to be guaranteed to have.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    You provided me with season long data?

    Have you got per game data? Your guys had three consecutive bad games, seemed like they were crying out for the bye week.

    I must have missed your link to the data somehow.

    Edit to add: You do realise the eye test is a good thing. As I said to you, Purdy has very good footwork in the pocket and can extend his time because of it. Can you get me stats about footwork?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Those stats are under center stats. They don't include stats from the gun, they don't include stats from when it's a rpo or play action.

    You can't take anything from those stats. You always have less time when you line up under center. And there's not many plays under center that are considered certain or highly likely pass plays, you generally have a running back behind you and sometimes a full back too. So they aren't expected pass plays. He's working with a very small sample from every game.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,156 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    The data visualization shows season long. I don't have the underlying data, I presume you can get it on PFF.

    Time to pressure doesnt take much analysis, hence why you can look at it as a stat. You don't need stats on footwork - the success I've spoken about by Purdy while under pressure is the result of his footwork, quick processing, quick release, off schedule play and scrambling abilities (along with a great coach and supporting cast).

    Jones isn't succeeding while pressured but you can see there are other QBs who are in as bad or worse OL situation and doing much better than him.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    I went and got stats and Russell Wilson is the only regular starting QB with 10+ games this season that gets more time in the pocket than Brock Purdy. He's level with Jalen Hurts and CJ Stroud.

    Of those with 10+ games Tua Tagovailoa gets the least amount of time, then Mac Jones. Bryce Young gets a lot more time than I thought.

    Just to add that having a good receiving helps a lot too. Tua has Hill and Waddle. Purdy has Samuel, Kittle, Aiyuk and McCaffrey.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,075 ✭✭✭Christy42


    Yeah I have no idea were the discussion online that the 49ers had a bad o-line came from. Everytime I watch them Purdy has plenty of time. Dude uses it but he gets time.


    However I would point out that Burrow and Lawrence are level with Mac in that stat. That said Mac is likely better than both at this exact moment in time given neither of them can play due to injury so you can see how it works out long term.


    In the end I have no idea what holding onto Mac does for a team. Yes he has had no help but you can still see what he is doing with the chances he does have which is not a lot. I acknowledge what he did do in his rookie season but he hasn't grown from that I think people forget how good you have to be to just be a back up. You see plenty of back ups at that sort of level. He needed to grow but hasn't, whether or not it is his fault it is the unfortunate truth. Yes he can throw deep but it isn't a laser to stop the coverage from reacting nor is it reliable off the back foot. He is good at RPOs and they should run more of them but he isn't at Tua's level of decision making and just throwing speed for want of a better phrase. He doesn't have the mobility of even Burrow or Lawrence.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 39,026 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Thing is that Burrow has a great bunch of receiver's in Chase, Higgins and Boyd.

    Lawrence has Kirk, Ridley, Engram and Etienne. Not as good as the Bengals but still very good.

    Jones hasn't got anybody of that standard. Our top guy is JuJu Smith-Schuster. He wouldn't get on the field with any good team.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,075 ✭✭✭Christy42


    He doesn't and I don't expect the same volume stats but watching tape should show what you are keeping him around for. If you look at Lawrence with Urban the stats are obviously terrible and he had none of those receivers (Etienne was a Jaguar but was injured in preseason) but you can see why he was selected 1 overall. You could see how he was following through reads, the order or ideas behind the plays frequently made things hard and led to bad results but you could see how he was trying. You could see the arm talent and the mobility and the ability to make quick decisions.


    I don't see it with Mac, there are too many plays that are dead before receivers can run a route or his footwork is off. I could believe his confidence is shot but in that case he should still sit on the bench and focus on getting training back up to standard so he can execute in a game, potentially in a Geno career arc. Especially as even if he gets back to that level he will then need to build on that to improve from his rookie year when he still had plenty of flaws in his game such as skipping to check downs.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,156 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    That stat is pretty worthless in this discussion as it includes general time to throw, not just time to pressure. It counts all the times Jones craps the bed and dumps off the ball rather than trying to push the ball down the field like Purdy has. Jones' average air yards per attempt is 3.2 vs 5.4 for Purdy.

    Looking at that data source you provided it just helps my case. Jones has 13 more passing attempts and hurried just 3 more times than Purdy, however Purdy has been sacked 1 more time than Jones and knocked down 7 more times. Purdy is holding onto the ball despite the pressure and making plays. Given how polar opposite game scripts have been for the two sides, with the Patriots being behind so often, Jones should be significantly worse in every one of those statistics but he isn't.

    I already provided you the data visualisation for the actual stat we needed - time to pressure allowed.

    Here is another one of EPA vs Pass Blocking Grades and again look at the minor difference in OL rating vs the gulf in QB efficiency. I've said from the first comment that 49ers have a slightly better OL in pass protection, but where they have a significantly bigger advantage is coaching, pass catchers, and their run game.




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