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High Irish GDP is an illusion, Ireland is not that rich

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  • Registered Users Posts: 731 ✭✭✭techman1


    Yes the corporation tax fall is a big issue, it was only 10 billion as recently as 2019, now its circa 20 billion ,can the government cope with a potential fall of 10 billion. In 2019 we didn't have the huge refugee influx, that is costing 1.7 billion per year now according to latest figures for 2023. Maybe the corporation tax falls are causing the latest get tough policies by the government regarding taking in refugees and what they can expect in accommodation and welfare payments



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,371 ✭✭✭TheAnalyst_


    Is that recent? I don't believe it as it would put me top .5%.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    In today's Times it says liquidators of seized a Russian aviation leasing subsidiary GTLK have brought a High Court action aimed at preventing the Russian state backed parent company seizing aircraft.

    The Russian response is they won't participate because they don't believe they would get a fair trial.

    This was surely to be expected. The Russian counter sanctions mean the aircraft in Russia effectively belong to Russia now.

    So what is the real purpose of these legal shenanigans? My guess is so an Irish or western company can say to it's shareholders that it is doing something about the seized aircraft. But their efforts will surely be in vein so are they just buying time with the shareholders? Are they deferring the inevitable bad news, that the aircraft are gone and Russia owns them now?

    Legal cases are expensive. They waste a lot of money. And there will be no winners in this war in Ukraine. I think the truth should be told. The planes are gone. Wasting time and money on lawyers won't bring them back.

    Am I wrong?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,632 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell




  • Registered Users Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    I think all the insurance companies are desputing these sorts of claims and in fact I think that option has already been tried in this case and it failed because of the political cause of the loss. I think it is reasonable to assume the Kangaroo I mean the High Court will rule in favour of the liquidator, and their client will then go on a newswire to say they won a major legal victory and their share price will surge. But of course the ruling will be uninforceable. Over time the hope will be the accountants can make the loss seem innocuous.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 26,420 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    You are, yeah.

    As far as the Russians concerned, these planes belong to Russia (or to Russian companies).

    As far as the rest of the world is concerned, they don't.

    Which means, if the plane flies outside of Russia, or perhaps a few client states of Russia, it's at risk of arrest and seizure. So the plane is immediately limited to domestic flights, which makes it considerably less useful to Russia.

    Russia will also find it difficult to get spare parts for a stolen plane or its engines, almost impossible to get it serviced and completely impossible to get it certified. For a civil airliner, that's a huge problem. In some relatively short period of time, the plane will become unflyable. Just how short that period is depends on your appetite for risk. (I don't mean financial or legal risk here; I mean the risk of dying in a fireball.)

    There are temporary workarounds. If you have enough planes/engines of the same make and model, you can cannibalize some of them for parts for others, but this offers limited benefits — if a part is due for replacement after 1,000 hrs flying time, and you replace it with a second-hand part that has already accrued 800 hrs, that only gets you another 200 hrs. Your can use knockoff parts from dodgy Chinese sources, but your insurance immediately lapses. You can use non-authorised engineers for servicing, but you have the same insurance problem. Flying uninsured aircraft creates financial problems for Russian airlines, and for the banks that finance them. The Russian government can step in and provide financial guarantees at the taxpayer's expense, but the Russian government has its own financial pressures, what with funding a war while tax receipts are plummeting and nobody will lend to you. And there's no way round the certification problem.

    So, basically, stealing the planes allows you to use them in your domestic aviation market for a while, but not a very long while.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    Not so sure. By behaving the way it is, the west is isolating itself from the rest of the world. It is the west that is initiating sanctions, building walls and using NATO to provoke wars. Russia can fly those planes to any number of friendly countries. Do you really think China or India would sieze a plane the Russia siezed from the west while they are getting plenty of cheap oil from Russia? It wouldn`t matter anyway because they could simply use the seized planes in Russia which is a 6th of the world`s land mass and the unsiezed planes for elsewhere.

    As for plane parts, you do realize Russia used to make everything itself during Communist times. Think how much better they can do now that they are capitalist. Added to that, China, the world`s factory is right on it`s doorstep. If China is selling less to the US these days, all the better for Russia - less price competition. If Russia has problems with getting plane parts, those problems are no different to the US. Remember the Boeing 737 Max plane crashes that led to it being grounded? That was because the US no longer makes stuff. What used to be made in the rust belt, is now ordered from overseas where they can`t control quality. So if you are worried about incinerating at 30,000 feet, sorry but that could happen just as easily over Europe or the US.

    It is interesting you mention funding and war in the same sentence. You do realize the US is running multi trillion dollar deficits and trying to get it`s supreme court to let them pass a law that says an unrealized capital gain is taxable income? Why, because they want to continue funding wars.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,420 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    International aviation depends on a transnationally-functioning system of aircraft registration and regulation. It's Russia that is departing from that, not "the West". Countries not aligned with the West still want to participate in international aviation. These stolen aircraft will not be safe outside Russia and a very few client states. They certainly would be liable to arrest in China or India.

    (Think about it; aviation leasing companies won't want to lease aircraft to Chinese or Indian airlines if they can't recover those aircraft, should the terms of the lease be violated. So both India and China do indeed have legal mechanisms in place under which an owner of an aircraft can arrest and recover it. If the stolen planes are flown into China or India, what would stop the owners from utilising those mechanisms? You think China and India are going to repeal their laws on this topic, effectively licencing aircraft piracy, and freeze themselves out of international aviation in order to toady to Vladimir Putin? Think again; China has in fact already expressly prohibited the stolen aircraft from being flown into China, and I suspect the only reason India hasn't done so is because Russia hasn't attempted to fly them in.)

    Russia can indeed make aircraft parts, but the insurance, financing and certification for civil airliners all depend on the consistent use of authorised parts. (As in, authorised by the manufacturers.) So, if any of the seized aircraft/engines have been manufactured by Russian manufacturers, there's no problem about parts. But anything by Airbus, Boeing, GE Aviation, Rolls-Royce, etc — the parts problem is a huge one. And, as of 2022, 70% of the civil aircraft in Russia were foreign-made, and they accounted for 95% of Russian civil air traffic.

    You seem to have a quaint notion that if things are manufactured outside the US, the manufacturers can't control quality. I think that's fairly offensive to countries that aren't the US; it's also untrue. The point about Russian knockoff parts is not that they will be of poor quality — they need not be — but that they aren't the authorised parts, so we don't know what the quality is, and so the aircraft don't meet certification requirements. So even if the plane isn't arrested outside Russia on behalf of an owner seeking to recover it, it's liable to be grounded as not properly certified.

    As for the risk of actual accident — the Russians could manufacture knockoff but high-quality parts, and they could put their top engineers onto maintenance and servicing of seized civil airliners. But none of that would solve the insurance, certification, etc problems they face and, besides, they do have other demands on their aircraft manufacturing and engineering capacity, what the the war going on an all, so this might not actually be their top priority for allocation of the available resources. Plus, however good the engineers are, they don't have access to the manufacturer's diagnostic software and systems, and they (obviously) don't have the training or experience the manufacturer's service teams have.

    So far the Russians have addressed these problems by throwing money at Russian Airlines. Civil aviation traffic (both international and domestic) has fallen sharply and, while the Russian airlines save money by not making their lease payments, they are still mostly insolvent. Russia props them up with massive subsidies — $4.5 billion last year, but it will certainly be higher this year — which is the only thing that keeps them flying, at least domestically.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    The isolationist policies of the west are guaranteed to work. The west will be isolated from the real world.

    But the point I was making about the seized aircraft was not really about Russia but the way the matter is being handled here. The planes are gone and will not be recovered. No court ruling in Dublin will change that.

    Western insurance companies, will not accept responsibility and if they are forced to, it will be a loss for the west in any case and their shareholders will take the hit.

    Someone in the west has to take the loss. The legal disputes around this will probably end up costing as much as the aircraft. And the amount of paper used in litigation is enormous.

    My thinking is, these legal arguments are designed to blur the loss but in tangible terms, they will add to them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,420 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Well, the planes have been stolen. That's a loss, obviously. But even if the legal action is ineffective to secure immediate recovery of the planes, it may help to deny Russia much of the benefit of stealing them which, if nothing else, reduces the incentive for theft of this kind. And it may do a little more than that; it may position the owners somewhat better to recover the planes if Russian airlines do fly them to another jurisdiction. Also, devaluing the planes to Russia reduces the cost of bargaining to recover them when the war is over. The less the planes are worth to Russia, the less sense it makes for Russia to continue to suffer sanctions by refusing to return the planes and repay the lease costs on which they defaulted.

    Will the Russians agree to that? Well, we don't know how the war will end, or when, or whether the planes will have any value to anybody by then. But the owners will want to position themselves to make the best of whatever the situation happens to be, which means doing everything they can to deny the Russians as much benefit as they can from the theft, and to assert and not abandon their own interest in them.

    Planes are immensely valuable assets. A new A330 will cost you about US$250 million, depending on whether you want the sunroof, the rear wash/wipe and the go-faster stripes. Obviously, the owner of such an asset is going to be prepared to spend money defending their right to it; if they weren't prepared to to that, they wouldn't — and shouldn't — be in the business.

    The disputes will not cost as much as the aircraft; the planes, as pointed out, are massively expensive and the proceedings will be relatively cheap. Russia isn't bothering to enter a defence (because they have no defence) so the plaintiffs will get judgment in default of defence. The cost of that will be measured, at most, in tens of thousands, not hundreds of millions.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    Perigrinus, you make so many points I cannot possibly agree with. Are you really suggesting a western plane leaser would tell a client country like China they will stop leasing aircraft to them if they do not apply warrants for these aircraft?

    And even if China complied, they would likewise have to arrest and seize any large yachts in international waters if there is any suspicion the vessel was stolen by way of western sanctions.

    But seriously, you wouldn't stay in business long if you stopped serving companies in China because of some dispute with other actors that the Chinese government did not involve itself in.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,524 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    China remains dependent on the "West" every bit as much as we are dependent on China.

    We will never need to find out the answer to your first question, as it is unquestionable that China would in fact action warrants on these aircraft which is why they are not flying to China.

    This is not about a dispute between (in this case) Ireland and Russia. it is about the international system under which the business takes place. You either participate in that system or you do not.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    I think the world would agree with you. No wonder they de-dollarizing. In the wake of these sanctions against Russia, the risk of doing business with western countries has resulted in our governments and corporations having to pay more on their bonds and most buyers are now from other western economies. The rest of the world is dumping western assets. One consequence of this will be in inflation, especially if the FED and ECB hint they might lower interest rates.



  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭duck.duck.go


    If it’s an illusion then why so many people want to migrate here? Tis a mystery



  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭duck.duck.go


    Any evidence or references for your thesis?

    Where do you think to quote a certain president these shithole countries are investing their loot in??



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    Young Irish professionals are emigrating. That`s no mystery.



  • Registered Users Posts: 731 ✭✭✭techman1


    whats all these posts about leased planes seized by Russia got to do with Irish GDP, yes its tangental due to the large aviation leasing business here but it no way matches the revenue and corporation tax generated by the US tech companies. Surely those posts should be in the Russia thread not this one



  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭duck.duck.go


    Irish people finding opportunities is now a bad thing? Wow shocking 😮



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    I said it was understandable, I didn't say it was a bad thing. In fact the real mystery is why any young Irish person would choose to stay.



  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭duck.duck.go


    Oh will ya stop, some of us actually lived through proper recessions and are old enough to remember this country being much much worse


    If you think it’s so bad here off you go to greener pastures to experience “reality”



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    I have also lived through worse recessions than 2008. I would explain to you why young people are better off emigrating but I have been warned not to.

    Still, the smartest of them know why which is why it is the professional young people with good qualifications who are most likely to emigrate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭duck.duck.go


    Good for them to have such an opportunity to see the world and experience personal and professional growth



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,524 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Young professionals are always going to emigrate from Ireland, the same as they do from NZ or Canada. Relatively small countries beside much larger but broadly similar ones will always have that issue.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    Yes it is more opportune for them to go than is is to stay, given the cost of housing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    I think it is because of the cost of housing here more than for reasons of carrier progression.



  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭duck.duck.go


    Meanwhile my point stands as per CSO a multiple of people emigrating are immigrating into poor poor Ireland with its fake GDP and this has gone on for some time now and population has grown well above projections



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,524 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    If it was because of the cost of housing no one would be moving to London.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,675 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    That is a very good picture.

    In four of the six we are better than the European average. Need to do better in renewable energy and organic farming.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    Those migrants have no idea what they are letting themselves in for. This country borrowed 200 billion euro since 2008. Someone has to service that. If the Irish youth emigrate, the burden will fall on the immigrants.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭duck.duck.go


    Lets keep it real and get our ducks in a row

    Ireland debt to GDP 41.9%

    Australia 51.6%

    New Zealand 51.4%

    United Stated 113.8 %

    are there any other greener pastures I should check?



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