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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 25,520 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    Yeah, but do you really want an "internal revolution" in a country with nukes? What happens if one side decides to nuke the other?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,306 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    But that's the problem: dollars for donuts it won't just be Russia and whether it's internal regions like Chechnya or satellite countries around the old USSR sphere; and if the missiles get lobbed between rival factions, we could see yet another migrant and supply-chain crisis as those areas crumble. I just can't imagine a scenario where it's neat and concentrated - and as @Timberrrrrrrr there's the extra wrinkle of this being a country with (supposedly functioning) nuclear weapons.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,437 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Quote:- " it could have a meaningful position with significant power in the future. Instead it chooses to be an outlier." Unquote.

    And that says it all! It does not matter one-bit what resources natural or otherwise Russia currently has, while it's under the control of a criminal and his gang. It's not going anywhere except through terrorism, and that will come to an end, sooner or later.



  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭duck.duck.go


    Lets go with this scenario, let’s say Governor Madsky from Backarsian Siberian Republic declares independence and cuts the only railway line that what remains of Russian military would need to use (after having to disengage from Ukraine), also all the southern republics go mad at same time smelling opportunity

    There are various armed groups running around Moscow killing each other in gang warfare on steroids

    Do you think some Russian general or Putin will sign off on nuking a part of what he claims as Russia?



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,318 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    If it is, the good news is that Valhalla (or Sto'Vo'Kor) has an internet connection and trains, and I like trains, but the bad news is that living in Valhalla also means that you end up waiting for an extra half hour for the delayed Northbound Texas Eagle in the rain... (Which I am currently doing)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,956 ✭✭✭Christy42


    Not really. From a tactical point of view a large hostile force in Ireland is a massive weakness for the US, Britain and France. The US as it can be used to disrupt transatlantic shipping and stop their protection from the European side (see issues around treaty ports in ww2, the UK nearly invaded us over it). The other 2 as it is a great place to invade either and neither wants to fight in that direction.



    I am not a big believer in anyone defending us out of general niceness. However a lot of alliances and defense treaties are about tactical advantages. The UK did not spring to Belgium's aid in ww1 out of kind heartedness. They did it because Germany taking over Belgium risked the UK's naval superiority at the time.


    Obviously any press statements would be about defending Ireland and cos we are so nice defending them etc.



  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭duck.duck.go


    Belgium lost 2% of their population in WW1 (British empire 0.3%) that be like Galway being wiped off the map

    I prefer we spend a bit more on our defence, join NATO, and not endup like Belgium did if someone daft like Putin starts WW3



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,520 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    Let's say Putin is gone, Russia fragments into several smaller states, what's to stop 2 of those states going to war and lobbing nukes?


    Putin is mental but what if someone even crazier takes over one if those states and decides he has to wipe out the neighbours over some small insult?


    WW1 started because Archeduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated so yes it could easily happen again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    I read it a while back ,his tour in Iraq caused him a great deal of issues he really struggled with PTSD after it ,by all accounts he didn't go to Ukraine to fight at first



  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭duck.duck.go


    Theres a difference between Russians lobbing nukes at their own people within 1991 borders of Russia

    And someone in Russia (or what remains of Russia) lobbing nukes at their neighbours or farther afield

    I asked about the first scenario in case of civil war

    As for the second scenario how is that any different to almost daily nuclear sabre rattling they do now? If anything the response be swifter as there be smaller chunk of Russia that would need to be turned into a glass parking lot



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  • Registered Users Posts: 25,520 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    Do you think nuclear fallout stops at borders?



  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭duck.duck.go


    So you do think in a civil war Russians will nuke Russians?



  • Registered Users Posts: 54,162 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    I just want Hungary kicked out of the EU, does anyone know what is involved in this?



  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭duck.duck.go


    On further thought in a Russian civil war scenario of one side nukes the other then the party who launched the nuke suddenly finds that their opponents have NATO and China on their side precisely because fallout knows no borders and the nutcases to start a nuclear war would need to promptly eliminated



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,270 ✭✭✭thomil


    The first question would be which part of Russia we're talking about. While Russia has dispersed its nuclear weapons throughout the country, its sheer size would mean that there are likely several provinces or republics without any nuclear weapons on their territory. Beyond that, I would imagine that there are likely no land-based nuclear weapons systems too close to the borders, or in the Caucasian republics either, for reasons of security. That leaves the region surrounding the Urals, the Russian Far East with the naval bases around Vladivostok & Petropavlovsk, as well as European Russia and the Kola Peninsula as areas of "concern".

    Then, there's the status of the nukes in question. From all that I've read, we should expect the ballistic missile submarines of the Northern and Pacific Fleets to be in the same state of readiness as their western counterparts. They regularly received funding even in the dark years and have been the recipients of a bulk of funds allocated to the navy, to a degree that even the ever-present corruption has likely not led to major issues. This would in turn mean that commanders might be less inclined to throw in with any potential "warlords" for lack of a better term, while the comparatively better funding would allow missile boats to slip their lines with relative ease if things start getting dicey. For the purposes of this thought exercise, we should take those submarines out of the picture. The same goes for most of the navy's tactical nuclear weapons, as they will for the most part be mounted on torpedoes or as depth charges, with only a few ones able to be mounted on cruise missiles. These will be of little to no use in a civil war which will be mostly fought on land.

    That leaves land-based ballistic missiles and air-dropped weapons, whether gravity bombs or cruise missiles. For most ballistic missiles, it will be a question of who can get their hands on the command posts of those missile units. The silo-based missiles themselves will likely be useless to anyone who captures the actual silo, as the launch command will come from one of these command posts. I'm not sure about Russia's road-mobile ICBMs, but I would imagine that they too will need some sort of go-code before they can actually launch. Also, ICBMs of all types have a minimum range as well as a maximum range, which means that these weapons might be of no use if the target is too close.

    The main concern here will be air-dropped weapons and those meant for use on SRBMs, and here, maintenance comes into play. While Russia has always held their nukes in higher regard than western nations, much of the focus has been on ICBMs and SLBMs, with short-range or "tactical" weapons of secondary concern. As such, there is a genuine question as to how many of these short-ranged weapons are actually operational or can be made operational in relatively short order. I'd say that there are no more than a few hundred of these weapons within the Russian arsenal, and how many of those would be captured by any warlord prior to them being sabotaged is questionable.

    Finally, there's the question of mindset. While the stereotypical wild-eyed general makes for great storytelling in Hollywood, most of those who are likely to rise to power in a second Russian Civil War will likely have a very well-developed sense of self-preservation. Even Putin is not completely balls-to-the-wall crazy, even though he clearly has issues. They will know that a use of nukes might get them a LOT of unwanted attention and as such, they will likely keep any nuclear weapons in their back pocket. In effect, these weapons will likely be most useful as a deterrent and/or a bargaining chip, just as they already are on an international scale.

    Good luck trying to figure me out. I haven't managed that myself yet!



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,052 ✭✭✭✭ejmaztec



    I expect Mad Vlad will get instructions from North Korea. The scheme that exists where North Koreans are kept in "camps" outside NK, where they do work for foreign businesses. Their wages are paid directly to the NK government, and the NK government pays them the minimum. The first time I heard about the scheme was in a documentary a few years ago, where the Edinburgh Woollen Mills was reported as having North Koreans working for them outside the NK border. Their goods used to be described as "Made in Scotland", which was changed to "Designed in Scotland". I don't know if they're still employing North Koreans since the scandal broke, but it didn't go down very well at the time. Mad Vlad could do the same for Russians working in Russia, and collect whatever tax he likes, he's that kind of bloke.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,740 ✭✭✭zv2


    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,575 ✭✭✭Field east


    I wonder has putin /russia carried out the same strategy that was used when it allowed UKr to be a independant state by taking the nukes out of it - so that it , UKr would be at a huge disadvantage if war broke out. In other words is Putin storing his nukes and serious arnaments stuff in republics that he can trust?



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Mar'inka has supposedly fallen today ,if they don't stabilisatise the current situation on the front lines they could lose more territory than they gains in the failed counter offensive



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭Virgil°


    Lol. Marinka has supposedly been falling according to the Russians for weeks now. As they slog and throw bodies for the last few streets held by the Ukranians.

    And even if they do take it today that means absolutely nothing for the overall health of the frontlines, the Russians aren't about to blitz their way to the the edge of the Donbass given they've taken months and thousands of casualties to take 4 streets of Marinka. Which situation on the Ukranian frontlines isn't stable? Putins scumbags taking a few hundred meters every few days near Avdivka at enormous loss and then being pushed back doesn't count.

    How about Ukraine taking a chunk of highground north of Horlivka? Is that not worrying for the Russians? Does that not count in your land calculations? Or is it just negative news for Ukraine that interests you? Have you ever considered why you seem to have some an almost fetish like need for bad news?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 232 ✭✭IdHidden


    Most of those comments are probably from the many Russian bots.



  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭duck.duck.go


    He said same about Avdiivka yet Russians continue to be turned into fertiliser


    there ^ despite claims of it being “captured”, and that’s the problem with regurgitating Russian news at some stage it leads to head scratching

    Anyways movement on the Hungarian front https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-12/hungary-says-it-may-lift-ukraine-aid-veto-if-eu-unfreezes-funds?sref=rOHF391B&leadSource=uverify%20wall



  • Registered Users Posts: 323 ✭✭duck.duck.go


    So beside 50 billion euro from EU about to be unblocked

    looks like the 61 billion dollars from US like I mentioned yesterday here that I highly doubted Democrats cared about the Wall as an issue (since they were the ones to add it into the package as distraction) also looks to be moving in right direction




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,740 ✭✭✭zv2


    Hungary is blackmailing the EU and the republicans are blackmailing USA.

    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,740 ✭✭✭zv2


    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    What I said about adviika was they lost ground and despite the heavy losses the russians are inching forward...

    If your claiming otherwise your clearly not actually following what's going on currently in Ukraine



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,610 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    This is always the way with US politics.

    It does get the naiive and easily led out of the woodwork though.

    A republican looney bin candidate talked about ceding land to russia, that will be a talking point for that group again.



  • Registered Users Posts: 156 ✭✭Roald Dahl



    I agree fully with you on this.

    The Russians finance all of the world's malcontents and cranks. Regardless of what they represent, as long as they oppose the local stability, the Russian KGB will be in the background with their dirty money and kompromat and they will always find willing takers and useful idiots.

    To a nation like Russia a victory does not necessarily have to be a victory for them. A victory is seeing a better and more propserous country suffer due to Russian interference.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 222 ✭✭AngeloArgue




This discussion has been closed.
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