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Nuclear - future for Ireland?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,040 ✭✭✭Shoog


    I was refering to their own french fleet, I don't think they have anything to do with the historic British fleet. I think the government are entirely on the hook for those.



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,718 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    You should listen to the latest episode of the podcast, Redefining Energy, they interview a former EDF employee, the person who was in charge of trading all their generation.

    The summary is that EDF is a complete mess. They don’t mention decommissioning, but they mention that they are terrible at predicting the length of time and cost to maintain their plants. It ends up taking much longer and more expensive.

    They say that there are pretty serious cultural problems at EDF and don’t see it likely changing.

    On the French Nuclear plants, they are aging and requiring more and more costly maintenance with longer downtimes. The amount of electricity being generated by them has dropped significantly and they simply can’t competitively build new reactors.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,156 ✭✭✭gjim


    Meanwhile the Chinese nuclear "renaissance" that get the fluffers here so excited has more or less ground to a halt. The program peaked with 7 new reactors in 2018. It's averaged 3 reactors a year since then and has fallen to 1 this year. And it's looking increasingly likely that this single reactor will not achieve commercial operation before the end of the year.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,693 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    I think Sellafield is getting back into the nuclear bad news again.

    The Guardian have a number of articles about nuclear waste leaks that sound very worrying. But do not worry, they hope to have it under control by 2075 - or perhaps not.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭RainInSummer


    Do you have a source for that? Genuinely curious to read it, not trying to do that internet thing of discrediting.

    Post edited by RainInSummer on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,053 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    The ice caps are melting, the Earth is about to become the next Venus, there are cracks at Sellafield, Australia is about to be burnt to the ground by bush fires, Sicily had a week of hot weather, everyone nearly died, You might miss out on that new iPhone you were hoping for at Christmas because there hasn't been enough rain in Panama and South America, just like in 2011 and 1975...

    Actually, of all the scare stories, that's the only one that moves the needle with me because it's likely to see an increase in the cost of Cofffee.

    Overwork Killed More Than 745,000 People In A Year, WHO Study Finds

    Sellafield - pffft!

    The mortality of all 14,327 people who were known to have been employed at the Sellafield plant of British Nuclear Fuels at any time between the opening of the site in 1947 and 31 December 1975 was studied up to the end of 1983. The vital state of 96% of the workers was traced satisfactorily and 2277 were found to have died, 572 (25%) from cancer. On average the workers suffered a mortality from all causes that was 2% less than that of the general population of England and Wales and 9% less than that of the population of Cumberland (the area in which the plant is sited). Their mortality from cancers of all kinds was 5% less than that of England and Wales and 3% less than that of Cumberland.

    Lol!



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,693 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Well, that statistic you quote relating to Sellafield is skewed.

    The population of workers at Sellafield are more likely to be healthier than the general population. For example, the workers are mainly male, and so the chance of them suffering from breast or cervical cancer would be close to zero.

    That is the trouble with statistics - it is always easier to prove a point by selecting your source that will prove your point, and ignore any possible bias.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,053 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    With 42% of apprentices at Sellafield being female...

    More men die of prostate cancer than women of breast cancer, but don't let me interrupt your learned exposition on gender balances, statistics and cancer.

    It's weird, my brother died from nuclear radiation exposure, but you are the one proselytsing the fear.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,578 ✭✭✭KrisW1001


    You meant to write "die with prostate cancer" not "die of prostate cancer".

    Prostate cancer itself has really, really low mortality - metastasis is the biggest risk from prostate tumors. Breast cancer, meanwhile, is about #4 in terms of annual deaths, about 99% of whom are female - yes, men can get breast cancer.

    (Incidentally, the top three types are Lung and respiratory tract ahead by a long way, then Colo-rectal, then Stomach cancers)



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,693 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    If statistics are used to compare a specific group against 'the general population', then the results need to be controlled for bias, whether intentional, or is just accidental. An employed group excludes those younger or older than a working population, and if the subject population is predominately male or female, then that should be controlled.

    I am not familiar with mortality rate of any kind, so I do not know which groups have elevated rates but I do know that radiation exposure gives rise to sickness and that is not pleasant and is normally fatal, and gives rise to deformities and cancers.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,826 ✭✭✭SeanW


    Umm ... you do realise that men have a shorter lifespan than women on average right? In most countries the life expectancy difference is about 5 years.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,693 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Statistics takes account of all variations if done properly. That is what 'controlled' means.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,053 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    No I didn't, and no it doesn't. A death from a metastasised cancer is still counted as a death caused by the originating tumour. My brother died of melanoma, even though the one of the hundreds of tumours he had resuting from metastisis that finally killed him was likely in his brain.

    There are around 11,500 breast cancer deaths in the UK every year, that's 32 every day (2017-2019).

    There are around 12,000 prostate cancer deaths in the UK every year, that's 33 every day (2017-2019).




  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I do know that radiation exposure gives rise to sickness and that is not pleasant and is normally fatal, and gives rise to deformities and cancers.

    Sorry what? You would need a pretty hefty qualification on the amount of radiation exposure to make this even close to true.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,053 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    You are trying to spin a narrative and it's just not working. Employment at Sellafield does not pose health or elevated cancer risks for workers, no matter how much you try and suggest the statistics are flawed, even those who have to access high radiation areas. Airline crew, and frequent flyers, are exposed to elevated levels of radiation over their lifetimes. They might have a slightly increased risk of cancers, but if so, it's only slight.

    The Guardian are trying to whip up a storm over a spilt teacup. No one has died, nor are any likely to. Sellafield makes for a great whipping boy for anyone with an abject fear of things nuclear.

    Have you ever wondered at the irony of an energy infrastructure forum where near everyone has an abject fear and hatred of of all things nuclear when all forms of energy we use are the direct product of nuclear energy, even geothermal ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 971 ✭✭✭medoc



    Im not sure if Nuclear is a viable option for Ireland due to costs, timescales and size of the grid demand in Ireland but it definitely should be looked into in a meaningful way. If it proved to be viable then why not.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,585 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Timescale is a generation give or take based on needing to change laws and a whole raft of legal challenges before you can even begin to consider thinking about starting to draft proposals to offer tenders.

    Which means nuclear will play no role in our 2030 emissions targets.

    After 2030 it's competing with renewables which will undermine nuclear on price most of the time. Which is the exact opposite of "Cheap nuclear" in places like the USA and France based on 40 year old plants whose capital costs are long since paid off.

    The lesson from 2022 is that nuclear can't be relied upon to step in when power is needed. Like renewables it's nice when it works, but unlike renewables you have no idea how long an outage could go on for or when you'll have an unscheduled outage.



    Shika nuclear plant was closest to Japan's earthquake but had already been shut down for inspection.

    Last week Japan lifted a ban imposed on the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear plant. Devine retribution or lousy timing ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 894 ✭✭✭Busman Paddy Lasty


    "Have you ever wondered at the irony of an energy infrastructure forum where near everyone has an abject fear and hatred of of all things nuclear when all forms of energy we use are the direct product of nuclear energy, even geothermal ?"

    Correct in saying near everyone there :)

    Said it time and time again Éire has no real military capability to protect a nuclear site. The island of Ireland could maybe sustain a nuclear plant but multiple reactors and UK military protection would be needed. I've even recommended Greenore as a location.

    The only show in town is to invest in nuclear in mainland Europe, France and own a portion of the expertise and electricity generated.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,585 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    No need to invest. No one exports nuclear long term. Exports are almost always covered by other generators. Except maybe for France back in the day and even on those occasions it's more than offset by imports.


    If you'd invested in French nuclear in 2007 when construction started, you'd be pleased to know that they'll start loading fuel this March. Followed later on by a grid connection and later still by full commercial operation. It could even be the first EPR plant that doesn't have a major outage in it's first year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,826 ✭✭✭SeanW


    Yeah, France. What a horrible example to follow. CO2/kwh figures an order of magnitude cleaner than countries like Germany and Ireland, at lower energy costs to consumers, and still exporting to its neighbours.

    BTW, Ireland's electricity needs are going to grow with all the electric heating, air pumps, electric cars, electric buses, trains etc that we're going to be pushed to use, so it may be a good idea to look at what the Finns have done, and acquire an EPR with better interconnection to France and the UK.

    As for renewables, in Ireland we KNOW that they won't work when we need them most, that being on calm winter nights. That is an absolute given. We also know that depending on renewables calls for an enormous waste of natural resources and poses grave threats to biodiversity as windmills present an extinction level threat to many bat species and large soaring birds such as eagles. And we also know from electricity costs such as those of Germany and Ireland that reliance on renewables - to the extent that this is possible - is expensive.




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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,156 ✭✭✭gjim


    Ffs, why would Ireland build an EPR? It's an abandoned design - nobody else in the world - even the French - are planning to build more of them. EDF are begging for government money to redesign it because it's proven to be a complete disaster.

    E.g. Olkiluoto 3 - took 18 years to build instead of the promised 5 and ran 3 times over budget. Since they've had a SCRAM (emergency shutdown) January 2022 taking it offline for a month, in May of the same year steam turbine lining failed - offline for 3 months - then in October that year, feed water pump failures, offline again, after that more serious pump faults offline again in Jan 2023 to replace parts. Flamanville - 5 times over budget and 10 years (and counting) late. Even the chinese couldn't hide major issues found with the EPRs Taishan 1 and 2 also plagued with faults - including a 13 month shutdown of unit 1.

    So every one of the 4 EPRs have been wildly over-budget, wildly over schedule and plagued with faults since starting operations (of the 3 that started). And the owner of the design has abandoned any plans to build more of them... but yeah Ireland should build one 🤔



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,936 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Demand also drops in the night time when generation is reduced. Do you have any evidence of or studies on the extinction level threat to bats?




  • Registered Users Posts: 8,826 ✭✭✭SeanW


    Plenty of reading material on the topic.

    As regards papers, the US National Institute of Health re-published part of a larger paper on the topic, which found that during the 21st century, wind mills have eclipsed even White Nose Syndrome as a mass-killer of bats.

    Multiple mortality events in bats: a global review - PMC (nih.gov)

    As to precise numbers, I don't have them to hand but I had seen North American estimates indicating many hundreds of thousands of bats were killed in all every year by wind mills.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,463 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    I'm a bit sceptical of mass bat fatalities from large wind turbines in ireland ,

    Obviously wind turbines are usually on hill tops or in exposed windy areas, the main risk to bats isnt the turbine blades but the turbulence and vortexs caused by the blades ( basically like large airplane wings)

    These are obviously much more prevalent when wind speeds are high- but there are very few high flying insects in high wind conditions, and bats tend to follow the insects,

    So on a balmy summer evening when the bats are zipping about at altitude ,theres unlikely to be much turbulence, and a hilly area with high wind speeds is unlikely to have a high bat population to start with ,

    But it'd be well worth reseaching the flight and feeding habits of different bat species in different habitats ,

    Maybe even base line bat population studies,before construction ,

    Soaring birds are a different story entirely, more visual aids on the spinning blades would definitely help ,

    And for quartering birds like hen harriers ,i'd imagine the habitat is off limit for turbines ...

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,053 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    "Bat species regularly fly to high altitudes on all continents where they occur, and many of these bats are confirmed or suspected of feeding on migratory insects."

    You would be wrong in a belief that bats constarin themselves to altitudes below the bottom of turbine blade tips.

    In Mexico they regularly fly 3km up.

    Post edited by cnocbui on


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,156 ✭✭✭gjim


    PORTLAND, Maine (AP) — Unfounded claims about offshore wind threatening whales have surfaced as a flashpoint in the fight over the future of renewable energy. 

    In recent months, conservatives including former President Donald Trump have claimed construction of offshore wind turbines is killing the giant animals.

    I wonder how long it will take this forum's little band of climate change denialist cranks - to suddenly develop a newfound deep and genuine concern for the plight of whales?



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,053 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    More complete nonsense about bats being affected by wind turbines:

    So even if they are not being hit and killed directly by blade collisions, their food source habitat is effectively reduced which would decrease their numbers in a less objectionable way.

    Until recently I owned a house which some stupid civil servant included in a SAC, which transformed it from being my house into a state-controlled bat breeding ground, preventing me in strict legal terms from disturbing them by doing anything to the house. Yet you can chuck up a wind farm with nary a care for their effect on bats.

    Governments and the civil servants who 'yes minister' them, really are two-faced bleeps.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,585 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Fossil fuel usage in the UK is at a 66 year low because renewables.

    In case anyone thought otherwise, Nuclear power in the UK is at a 42 year low. Last year it was 37 TWh

    Nuclear power is not a backup. It absolutely needs backup because while the uptime might be good, it can go offline easily and stay offline. Nuclear needs larger, faster responding and longer lasting backup than other power sources.


    Example

    3 out of 4 reactors in Haysham are currently offline. Not a nuclear winter, but it is a local nuclear dunkelflaute.

    Both reactors in Heysham 1 are undergoing non-planned outages for steam valve issues and aren't scheduled to come back on line until the 16th and 24th. And schedules for non planned outages can slip. And one of the two reactors in Heysham 2 is refuelling.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,053 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Heysham. My god, a nuclear dunkelflaute, it's shut down for maintainance, you just can't rely on these things. A shinig example of nuclear unreliability; except with your usual disingenuity, it's the total opposite. Those reactors have been in operation for over 30 years. You picked a bad example for claimed unreliability as one of the Heysham units in 2016 set a world record of over 894 days of continuous operation and output.

    You constanatly pick examples, like France, of 30+ year old reactors needing maintainance and declare them all to be unreliable, always ignoring the preceeding 30 years. It's facetious reasoning. Your neighbour shouldn't buy a new VW because you saw a 30 year old one up on hoist in a workshop.

    You want real unreliability, well that's renewables. Ireland's wind capacity factor is currently 5.1% And it's more or less been like that for most of last wekk or more.

    You'r anti-nuclear crusade seems to have lost sight of the bigger picture, which I thought was CO2 output. Those ancient unreliable nuclear reactors in your poster child for nuclear problems, France, are as of this moment, producing 69% of their total energy. Meanwhile here, that ultra unreliable wind is producing 14%. French CO2 output is 38g per KWh while ours are 251g.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,053 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    This fixation you have on a need for a substantial military force to protect a NPP - what is it based on? Outside of Ukraine with it's full scale war, where in the world have there been attacks on a NPP requiring a defence by even a police force, let alone serious enough to require military force?

    This idea of nuclear reactors being too big for Ireland is completely erroneous. The current aim is to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. A huge amount of the energy usage in this country is for heating, because our annual average temperature is just 10°C, which is why all those data centres want to locate here - cheap cooling. Then there's transport, it's not just electricity. So to achieve net zero, the plan is to decarbonise transport and heating by electrifying them, which basically means EV's and heat pumps for all. So electricity production is going to have to increase massively.

    The ESB estimates an annual need for 128 TWh of primary net zero energy needed by 2050 to achieve targets. That's 329 GWh per day requiring generation capacity of 13.7 GW. Currently it's 5 GW, and it's a Sunday. The current best nuclear reactor option are the Korean APR-1400 units, They are 1.4 GW.

    So while you and others think a nuclear reactor of 1.4 GW capacity is too big, the future reality is we could comfortably use at least 10 of them if we don't waste more money on 24% capcity factor fickle wind.



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