Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

What does the future hold for Donald Trump? - threadbans in OP

19369379399419421189

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,317 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Has he really taken the gloves off? What stinging jabs has he sent Trump stumbling backwards with? I watched the 4th Republican debate and the only one I saw calling Trump what he is was Chris Christie. He's the only one saying that Trump and Trumpism are swallowing the American Conservative movement like a serpent, and he's paying for that stance by being the least popular of the four candidates on stage. Therein lies the problem - the other three are trying to take Trump down without alienating Trump's base. Sort of an unsquareable circle, really. I suppose it doesn't matter because Trump is, what, 50 points ahead nationwide?



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,916 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    They are incapable of doing anything to win this race as those actions would lose them the next one - That's the problem and it has terrified them into stasis.

    Tear Trump down in the Primaries and "win" but in doing so alienate 20-25% of the GOP who are hard Core Trump zealots and lose the Presidential election in a landslide.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,292 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Yes this occurred to me too.If SCOTUS rules that the President has immunity they are giving the present (or any )President carte blanche to do whatever they wish to prevent the election of ,in this instance Trump.

    SCOTUS will ,presumably work out this "fine point" of constitutional law.

    Perhaps their only choice is to refuse to take the case.

    In that event ,would the Appellate Court be also practically obliged to refuse to take it ?

    That would leave things as they stand with Trump going to trial in March.

    (Or can Trump still find a way to delay the process?)

    @Quin_Dub "announce that he was appointing Hunter as Attorney General to investigate the Trumps and Kushners"

    That would actually be right out of Trump's playbook. ;-)

    Post edited by amandstu on


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,916 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    They've agreed to take it now , so we'll get a decision one way or the other fairly soon.

    If they find in Trumps favour then basically ALL the cases against Trump collapse with the possible exception of the fraud trials in NY.

    But all the election cases die there and then.

    Assuming that SCOTUS isn't completely insane , they will find against him - Or at least clearly define the scope of "Presidential Immunity" to allow for the cases to go ahead.

    Trump will no doubt try to find 101 other things to appeal about as for him it's not about winning or losing in court it's about getting to next November without getting convicted in the hopes that he wins and can just shut it all down.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,777 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    TBF the SCOTUS can still refuse to grant certiorari, they basically say 'get this crap out of our courtroom, live with what the Appelate court comes up with.'

    Smith is engaging in a stare-down with the SCOTUS, this is going to be pretty interesting, and terrifying, too. Might be one of the most consequential days in SCOTUS history, moreso than Dobbs.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,276 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    For sure.

    Ron's strategy from day 1 has to beat Trump from the right of the party. He has hammered him non stop on covid restrictions, failure to build the ball and him not showing up to the debates. The problem for him is because he is doing it on conservative platforms its not been picked up a lot of others.

    The reason for the lack of success is the party simply prefer Trump over RDS. Trump has something like 70 or so percent favorability with the party base while RDS has around 60%, the party like RDS but they idolize Trump for better or most likely worse.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,317 ✭✭✭✭briany


    I think that if they could do that, then they would. There's no plan they're holding back on because it would lose them a GE. OK, they'd prefer to win a GE, obviously, but knocking Trump off his perch and becoming the new Republican royalty, would be a hell of a runner up prize, especially with respect to their current standing as pathetic worms who have to just stand there and take Trump's endless jibes.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,916 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    True , but they have agreed to an expedited hearing which requires 5 Judges to agree (unlike the 4 required for a regular hearing) so he already has a majority that want to hear the case.

    It's a bold move , but it really is a no lose situation for him.

    It's going to end up there one way or the other - If they find in Trumps favour then as bad as that is , all it really means is he finds out now and not in 6-9 months time.

    If they kick it back down to the appeals court then it's cost him a few weeks at best.

    But if they accept it and find in his favour , then Smith has taken Trumps only defence out before he even gets to the court room and he is cleared to go for a March kick off.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    ... But then rebuild the party with a bit of sanity in the meantime and win the next election after Biden dies and the population realises that Kamala being president is not something they are quite ready for yet.

    The alternative in continuing to back Trump is they have to continue with supporting his craziness for at least another 4 years, either with him in power or screaming about a stollen election again. Then they still lose power in 4 years time, but have still not at that point figured out how to do things in a non-Maga way. Maga idealogy is never going to win them anything, and certainly not for any Trump copy cat that comes along because the replacement won't be Maga enough.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,916 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    The entire GOP have lost all ability to see beyond the here and now.

    MAGA need instant gratification so the idea of waiting it out and rebuilding away from the lime-light is utterly anathema to the rank and file.

    They want victories today and they don't care how hollow or short lived those victories are , they want them now.

    They are crack addicts and logic and sense don't apply.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,299 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    So now trump is saying that he actually DID want to testify yesterday in his New York trial. He said he didn’t because of the gag order.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,010 ✭✭✭✭LambshankRedemption




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,658 ✭✭✭Glencarraig


    If The Chump was ever to have sex with anybody's wife from what I have heard he would need a "strapadicktomy first 😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,294 ✭✭✭✭everlast75




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,781 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,777 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Quote I read elsewhere, emphasis mine:

    "On Monday evening, the Supreme Court said it will “expedite consideration of the petition from Jack Smith” and “instruct team Trump to respond by 12/20,” according to CNN. "

    Can someone confirm the quote from the USSC? It's worrying me - they should've been polite and referred to Jack Smith as "Mr. Smith" or "Prosecutor Smith." Not "Jack Smith."

    At least, imho they should've as someone who has been around lawyers a lot.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,963 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I don't even think it is a direct quote, but even if it was it's not like the judges write them.

    Apart from anything else, appellates are just called by their name unless they have a specific title such as AG in all SC opinions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,317 ✭✭✭✭briany


    The problem is that the right of the Republican party is more Greene and those kinds of people. It's shrieking conspiracy theory and paranoia. When DeSantis criticises Trump for things like not getting the wall fully built, the defence is automatic, almost: it's all because of the deep state. When you look at the 'purification' of the Republican party over the years since Trump has come to prominence, i.e. the ousting/resignation/retirement/marginalisation of all the sensible people in it, DeSantis finds himself almost looking like a centrist in the new spectrum of allowed Republican opinion.

    Maybe DeSantis had hoped to put together a coalition of independent voters and moderate Republicans in order to oust Trump, but it just hasn't happened for him. In current polling, Trump not only leads the other candidates, but he leads them combined, and leads them combined x2. So, if there are all these disaffected Republicans out there, they must have become awfully disillusioned with politics because they're not supporting Trump's rivals, and aren't crazy about Joe Biden, either, given the latest polling, there.

    Trump is the god-king of the Republican party, and essentially unassailable in terms of his popularity.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Also doesn't sound very lawyer'ish to refer to "Team Trump".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,276 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Essentially the GOP primary base are three groups, obviously the numbers can be debated etc.


    30-45% -who are all in Trump,will sacrifice their first born to him, Trump, Haley etc have to write this bloc off which obviously means winning the primary is near impossible to start with.

    30-40%-They like Trump but they are not as devoted to him, they like the cultural battles and some of his policies but probably roll their eyes at the more crazy stuff. This is the group RDS has tailored his policy towards mainly.

    15-20% who don't want to vote Trump in the primary and are where the money is . RDS clearly has thought "if it come down to him and Trump then they have nowhere to go so fk them" but obviously Haley has came in and nailed this bloc which is a killer for him.

    So you have the scenario where Haley has the 3rd group, but when it comes to the 2nd group she just is not that popular as Republican polling shows and when RDS drops out even if he were to endorse her many would simply vote Trump.

    RDS has lost the third group and the second group haven't really broke for him despite his solid favorability numbers as ultimately they like RDS but many still prefer Trump.

    RDS made the mistake of thinking the voters care about policy and consistency , and ultimately he has been sandwiched between the entertainment wing of the party who love Trump because he triggers the people they loath and the latter group who still think the party can ignore Trump and go back to the "good old days " of George Bush aka the Nevertrumpers.

    Post edited by Rjd2 on


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,317 ✭✭✭✭briany


    How did Desantis expect to capture that second group when he is the tasteless, diet version of the thing they prefer? That's just sad. He'd want to give up his presidential ambitions if that's the best thing he can come up with.

    I think Desantis and Haley going against Trump is a bit like a trust fund kid trying to sue their dad in the sense that the resources they have at their disposal are afforded them by their foe, and you can't operate that way. Once Trump turns off the support tap, they're essentially marginalised and dead in the water.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,777 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Editorial on how Smith's maneuvering to bring in the USSC will go well for him, and not TFG.

    Considering TFG's crack legal team has, pretty much, lost almost every case that actually got before a Judge, it's doubtful they'll do better before the USSC (imagine being the lawyer that might successfully argue on TFG's behalf.) That said, I can see if the USSC is indeed interested enough to want to hear arguments, they (team TFG) might then decide to pull back on their immunity nonsense, in order to insert more delay into the process. Smith, however, could still push through as this is his request of the Court.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,916 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    As ever they have painted themselves into something of a corner.

    On the one hand , they claim that all of this ongoing legal threat is "Election tampering" and is having a negative impact on the Trump campaign but also they actually don't want to go to the Supreme court yet because the true goal is to delay and deflect for as long as possible to get them to the election without a conviction.

    So - The typical response to Smith seeking to skip to the end and got directly to SCOTUS would be to request that the courts refuse to take on the case and allow the lower courts to do their thing , but that completely undercuts the argument of "election interference" as if it was truly about that they would want to expedite this as rapidly as possible.

    The convolutions in their December 20th submission will be epic.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,276 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    By enacting very conservative policies in Florida which he reckoned would be something that would matter to them. Its clearly not worked out but their was no perfect strategy to beat what is ultimately the default incumbent. Christie is currently -50 favorability with the GOP while Haley who is getting fawning from the media despite not a penny been spent from Trump attacking her in most polls is still trailing RDS.

    Haley is running a weird campaign, soaking up all the supposed NeverTrump love, but ultimately doing his biding by nuking the RDS campaign and not even trying to lay a glove on Trump which is understandable considering she asked his permission to enter the race.

    Pretty wild, they had years to learn from the 2016 primary and all the errors that was made that allowed Trump to win were ignored.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,777 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    "Pretty wild, they had years to learn from the 2016 primary and all the errors that was made that allowed Trump to win were ignored."

    They're not alone. Way too much attention to TFG's farcical campaign, and not nearly enough on his legal issues in the media. Further, the media aren't sounding the alarm loud enough.

    Way too much 'Biden is too old' stuff in the media as well, too, even in the comedic media like SNL and Colbert make fun of him now (not too often.) Never mentioning that TFG's nearly that old and ga-ga in so many ways.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,317 ✭✭✭✭briany


    The errors that led to Trump ran significantly deeper than those made in 2016. The Republican party allowing the Tea Party thing to snowball was a huge one. They thought it was a monster they could control. That reckoning was mightily wrong.

    There is no strategy, full stop, to beat Trump at the moment. It will require a cultural shift in order to unseat him.

    The idea of Haley asking Trump's permission to run would be a perfect summation of the party's complete supplication to Trump. She's basically running in the hope of being his VP pick. Would serve her right and the rest if he picked his son or something.

    Post edited by briany on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,294 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Trump is campaigning on prosecuting Biden when Trump wins, while simultaneously arguing in court that a past president is immune from prosecution.

    Hilarious that not one of his followers see the contradiction.

    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 61,272 ✭✭✭✭Agent Coulson


    Another ruling against the rapist

    Donald Trump cannot assert presidential immunity from a defamation lawsuit by E Jean Carroll, the writer who accused him of rape, a US appeals court ruled on Wednesday, dealing him another setback in litigation she has pursued.

    The second US circuit court of Appeals in Manhattan upheld a federal judge’s decision to reject Trump’s claim of immunity.





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,721 ✭✭✭nachouser


    $4,653 if you want a piece of his suit:-)



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,294 ✭✭✭✭everlast75




This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement