Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

might not have too many betting enthusiasts here, but i find early in the week of champions cup pool games you can find some good value in some of the spread bets, pending updates about weather and squad selection.

as a general rule most french teams dont travel to well, bayonne being the prime example this year. 4 home wins and 5 away losses. It will be interesting to see if they start Lopez at 10, if they dont, they are completely throwing the game. Munster -24 currently is good value as they are giving settled weather for sat evening.

toulouse' status in europe i unquestioned, and welsh rugby is in the absolute pits at the moment, so the 26 point spread in favor of toulouse also seems like good value. However theres a band of wet weather to come in after 3pm, so it might be worth waiting a little closer to team naming time to see if the weather pushes out a bit.

im not touching Leinster v LAR. neither side is really humming right now, despite leinster being 6 from 7 right now. The chopping and changing in Leinster has already shown to be not as smooth this year as it has been in previous years. Plus the injury to RB means leinster will be starting with an out half who has never started a HC game before, and what a place to make your first start! I cant call it. My gut tells me LAR will win, but i actually think the appointment of Matthew carley as ref is a big plus for Leinster. he does not allow mayhem at the break down the way barnes has in the last two finals. In this case an overly fussy referee suits us.

the other game that i think there is value in is Toulon v exeter. Exeter squad this year is full of kids. They still play a power based game, which works for them to a degree in the premiership as standards and skills are not as high a pervious, but will not work away to a massive, grizzled toulon side who are humming away in the top 14. Toulon by a bagful here.

if bordeaux send a decent side over to connacht, the current -4 to connacht could look very silly. Putting a bet on here is flipping a coin in my opinion.

its difficlut to predict how interested the stormers will be away from home, so im not touching that one either.

all home teams will be chasing 5 points, as theres no home and away element, and points difference could easily be the determining factor in some pool positions.

so my bets for the weekend is

munster -24 @ 10/11

toulon -13 @ evens

double munster and toulon @ 2.64/1

I know it's after timing, but at 5-12 with Mack Hansen after going off, I took Bordeaux -3 @10/11

Should have gone WAY wider, but hey. A wins a win.

I'm putting profit on Leicester -16 @10/11

total wiped out, less said the better. just glad i didn't go large for anything.

looking at round two right now, sale with their 4 points already might decide to send the seconds over to dublin on saturday night, especially with 6 day turnaround before their home games against premiership rivals saracens on the 22nd.

-24 could be attractive but im going to wait until thursday night to check the weather forecast before putting anything on. Current forecast is for a very settled night.

ulster v racing could be interesting. -1 to ulster currently but they are a team low in confidence and arent looking very well prepared. The spread might move a couple of points towards racing if they name a full strength side. They have an easy enough home game against Oyannaux on the 23rd. That spread might look as silly as the connacht -4.