FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2023/2024 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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Baby Steps for January. Blocking could start to appear on the short term models within the next 7 to 10 days if things continue to trend in the right direction.
ECM Predictions for mid January look interesting...
ECM greatly increases the chances of blocking and a negative NAO as we progress into January.
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Looking at the much shorter range (Christmas to New Year week period) the chances of cold are increasing with many ensemble members between -5 and -10 so there is an increased risk of mixed wintry precipitation for the Christmas, however there is still so much scatter, no doubt high ground is going to go fairly white in about a weeks time.
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Don't think i've ever seen a fax chart like this with such a high, high so west/north of the Azores, don't know quite what to make of it. Miserable in the west/SW if it happens like that.
Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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GEM (Canadian model) keeps it cold from Dec 23rd through to the 29th which is the longest forecast spell I have seen in the past week or too. Looking at the ens, it looks like the op run favouring a longer spell may not have significant support right now. That said, the 850hps for Christmas Day are cold in the majority. Quite marginal for snowfall away from high ground I would have thought
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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ECM not having any of the cold until Christmas Day when it finally brings in colder air from the NW. It's much cooler for Christmas than the 00z. Your yr.no and Met.ie local forecasts will reflect same later on with Xmas Day/ Stephen's Day likely being knocked back from 11/12c to 6/7c away from southern coasts.
The Navgem is going for a northerly on Christmas Eve with any showers likely to be limited to coastal counties of NW and N, and inland Ulster.
The Korean KMA shows an unstable airflow and atmospheric conditions conducive for snowfall at lower levels on Christmas morn, particularly in the northern half of the island.
The Chinese CMA model brings in the cold from the 22nd with widespread wintry showers on a tight NW gradient by the 23rd
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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Quite the FAX chart for Wednesday. A 1050hpa high and a cluster of low systems to the north. Low 978 drops southeast, generating a NW airflow and causing the High to fill in and drop south. It's hard to see any other scenario arising from the below FAX, if it were to verify of course
Edit...sorry @Supercell just noticed you posted earlier too 🥴
Post edited by WolfeEire onwww.x.com/wolfeeire
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Pub run trending colder overall, several members getting to -10 and outliers touching the -12C mark.
Overall the trend here is a definite cold snap between 23th of December and 26th of December with cold rain, graupel, sleet and snow possible for the big Day depending on how mild or cold we end up. Hopefully by Wednesday we will have a much clearer picture to where we are at for Christmas.
The only thing that looks certain right now is the current very mild conditions are going to take a tumble at some point next week and a more unsettled spell to come which will most likely be a wintry or very wintry mix and the heating bills will increase regardless of cold rain, sleet or snow.
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The GFS and ECM models have taken a swing towards less cold conditions. In fact, both ensembles are showing decidedly average conditions. The JMA, CMA, KSA, CFS, GEM favour cold but maybe not as cold as 24 hours ago perhaps. The UKMO looks like bringing cold later on Christmas Eve.
A 2-3 day Christmas cold snap has been trending for the bones of a week and therefore, remains the most likely outcome imo. Let's see what the evening output brings. MTC has everything well framed in his daily forecast.
Ps ..for the first and only time, I am posting a gif of what the NASA/ GEOS model is showing after a night on the tiles
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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Last week of December into the start of 2024 not looking very mild anyway. The ensembles is probably a good reflection of a weather pattern comprising cold and mild interludes.
Meanwhile, the PV under pressure by early Jan. Good potential for a SSW perhaps
Post edited by WolfeEire onwww.x.com/wolfeeire
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I think it’s going to end up being a now cast on the day 24th-25th So much can happen over the next few days with the models but a 48hr mini cold snap looks almost set although as it stands now not cold enough for snow. Maybe mountains and some inland and northern parts.
its going to be edge of the seat stuff watching the models over the next few days. Fingers crossed 🤞 ❄️
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